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Working Paper
Characterizations in a random record model with a non-identically distributed initial record
Nagaraja, H. N.; Barlevy, Gadi (2005)
We consider a sequence of random length M of independent absolutely continuous observations Xi, 1 = i = M, where M is geometric, X1 has cdf G, and Xi, i = 2, have cdf F. Let N be the number of upper records and Rn, n = 1, be the nth record value. We show that N is free of F if and only if G(x) = G0(F (x)) for some cdf G0 and that if E (|X2|) is finite so is E |Rn|) for n = 2 whenever N = n or N = n. We prove that the distribution of N along with appropriately chosen subsequences of E(Rn) characterize F and G, and along with subsequences of E Rn - Rn-1) characterize F and G up to a common ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-05-05

Working Paper
Moving to a job: The role of home equity, debt, and access to credit
Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Demyanyk, Yuliya; Hryshko, Dmytro; Sorensen, Bent E. (2013)
Using credit report data from two of the three major credit bureaus in the United States, we infer with high certainty whether households move to other labor markets defined by metropolitan areas. We estimate how moving patterns relate to labor market conditions, personal credit, and homeownership using panel regressions with fixed effects which control for all constant individual-specific traits. We interpret the patterns through simulations of a dynamic model of consumption, housing, and location choice. We find that homeowners with negative home equity move more than other homeowners, in ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1305

Working Paper
Earnings mobility and instability, 1969-1995
Duncan, Greg J.; Daly, Mary C. (1997)
We study earnings mobility and instability using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our main contribution is to update mobility and instability calculations to include data from the 1990s, although we also provide a number of tests of robustness across mobility and instability indicators and sample definition. All in all, we find few trends in earnings instability since the 1970s, particularly among younger workers. However, we find no evidence that instability continued to increase throughout the 1980s and early 1990s. With regard to mobility, we find greater upward mobility ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory , Paper 97-06

Working Paper
Identification of search models with initial condition problems
Nagaraja, H. N.; Barlevy, Gadi (2006)
This paper extends previous work on the identification of search models in which observed worker productivity is imperfectly observed. In particular, it establishes that these models remain identified even when employment histories are left-censored (i.e. we do not get to follow workers from their initial job out of unemployment), as well as when workers set different reservation wages from one another. We further show that allowing for heterogeneity in reservation can affect the empirical estimates we obtain, specifically estimates of the rate at which workers receive job offers.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-06-03

Journal Article
New data on worker flows during business cycles
Ferris, Ann E.; Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.; Bleakley, Hoyt (1999-07)
The most obvious economic cost of recessions is that workers become involuntarily unemployed. During the average business cycle contraction, total employment declines by about 1.5 percent, the unemployment rate rises by 2.7 percentage points, and it takes almost two years before employment recovers its pre-recession level. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy are concerned with these business cycle deviations of employment from its "full-employment" or "equilibrium" level. The aggregate statistics on employment and unemployment mask economically important information about the composition ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 49-76

Newsletter
Explaining the recent decline in the unemployment rate
Barrow, Lisa (2011-06)
The unemployment rate fell by nearly 1 percentage point between November 2010 and March 2011. Was this drop due to unemployed workers exhausting their unemployment insurance (UI) benefits and choosing to stop looking for work or due to more positive labor market developments, such as fewer workers losing their jobs or more workers finding new jobs?
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue June

Working Paper
Macroeconomic effects of employment reallocation
Campbell, Jeffrey R.; Kuttner, Kenneth N. (1996)
Major shifts in employment between industries and between firms within industries usually accompany recessions. Although this observation suggests that exogenous changes in the optimal allocation of labor are an important source of aggregate employment fluctuations, the macroeconomic significance of such shocks has remained unknown. This paper empirically assesses the role of reallocation shocks for cyclical employment fluctuations, and investigates the relationship between inter- and intrasectoral employment flows. In an analysis of total employment and the share employed in manufacturing, ...
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper WP-96-11

Working Paper
Spoils of War: Trade Shocks and Segmented Labor Markets in Spain during WWI
Fuchs, Simon (2021-05-28)
How does intranational factor mobility shape the welfare effects of a trade shock? I provide evidence that during WWI, a demand shock emanated from belligerent countries and affected neutral Spain. Within Spain, labor predominantly reallocated locally, while the most affected provinces experienced drastic increases in wages and consumer prices. Embedding imperfect labor mobility in an economic geography model, I show that external demand shocks can improve allocative efficiency, but asymmetric shocks cause localized increases in wages and consumer prices instead of reallocation. Adjusting an ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-14

Working Paper
The Cross-Section of Labor Leverage and Equity Returns
Donangelo, Andres; Gourio, François; Kehrig, Matthias; Palacios, Miguel (2017-09-04)
Using a standard production model, we demonstrate theoretically that, even if labor is fully flexible, it generates a form of operating leverage if (a) wages are smoother than productivity and (b) the capital-labor elasticity of substitution is strictly less than one. Our model supports using labor share?the ratio of labor expenses to value added?as a proxy for labor leverage. We show evidence for conditions (a) and (b), and we demonstrate the economic significance of labor leverage: High labor-share firms have operating profits that are more sensitive to shocks, and they have higher expected ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-22

Working Paper
The role of the housing market in the migration response to employment shocks
Zabel, Jeffrey (2009)
The United States is known for the ability of its residents to move to where the jobs are, and this has helped the nation maintain its position as the world?s top economy. Households? decisions to move depend not only on job prospects but also on the relative cost of housing. I investigate how the housing market affects the flow of workers across cities. This occurs through at least two channels: the relative mobility of homeowners versus renters, and the relative cost of housing across markets. I use homeownership rates to measure the former, and use an index that measures house prices ...
New England Public Policy Center Working Paper , Paper 09-2

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