Evidence on the Within-Industry Agglomeration of R&D, Production, and Administrative Occupations
To date, most empirical studies of industrial agglomeration rely on data where observations are assigned an industry code based on classification systems such as NAICS in North America and NACE in Europe. This study combines industry data with occupation data to show that there are important differences in the spatial patterns of occupation groups within the widely used industry definitions. We focus on workers in manufacturing industries, whose occupations almost always fit into three groups: production, administrative, or R&D. We then employ two approaches to document the spatial ...
Conference on Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications for Business, Labor Markets, and Monetary Policy
Introductory Remarks: Panel on Broader Labor Market Implications of Technology-Enabled Disruption. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick T. Harker recently spoke in Dallas about advances in technology and how it's vitally important that we educate and train U.S. workers to meet the needs of a changing labor market.
An Economic Outlook - Main Line Chamber of Commerce
Inflation, GDP growth, and the labor market are ?displaying considerable strength? and indicate a robust American economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker said today in remarks to the Main Line Chamber of Commerce.
The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy: The European Economics and Financial Centre, Distinguished Speakers Seminar, London, U.K. - July 1, 2016
I thank the European Economics and Financial Centre for the invitation to speak to this distinguished audience, in this venerable venue, at this historically significant time. I will focus my remarks today on the other side of the pond ? in particular, the U.S. economy and monetary policy. But as you know, we live in a global world, and so we are monitoring very closely what is happening on this side of the pond and assessing the implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy on my side of the pond. Before I begin, I should note that the views I'll present today are my own and not ...
Demographics and Their Implications for the Economy and Policy; 11.16.17; Cato Institute's 35th Annual Monetary Conference: The Future of Monetary Policy, Washington, DC
As the economy has moved from financial crisis and the Great Recession to sustainable expansion, attention has shifted from cyclical aspects of the economy to structural factors. As policy has begun to normalize, the question has been raised: ?what is normal?? To answer such a question, we need to understand how the underlying fundamentals of the economy are evolving. A critical factor is demographics. Demographic change can influence the underlying growth rate of the economy, structural productivity growth, living standards, savings rates, consumption, and investment; it can influence the ...
The gap between the conditional wage distributions of incumbents and the newly hired employees: decomposition and uniform ordering
We examine the cardinal gap between wage distributions of the incumbents and newly hired workers based on entropic distances that are well-defined welfare theoretic measures. Decomposition of several effects is achieved by identifying several counterfactual distributions of different groups. These go beyond the usual Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions at the (linear) conditional means. Much like quantiles, these entropic distances are well defined inferential objects and functions whose statistical properties have recently been developed. Going beyond these strong rankings and distances, we ...
Leading, lagging, and left behind: identifying metropolitan leaders and labor market outcomes
From 1990 to 2010, the United States underwent significant changes in the makeup of the population and its educational attainment. During the period, bachelor's degree or higher attainment proportions rose significantly?7.9 percentage points?from 20.3 percent in 1990 to 28.2 percent in 2010. This growth happened unevenly, though. Of 283 metropolitan areas, only 78 were above the 7.9 percentage point increase, suggesting much more concentrated growth than would be expected if growth were experienced evenly. This paper documents the concentration of growth and examines four labor market ...
The U. S. economy: an optimistic outlook, but with some important risks: remarks at the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast, Boston, Massachusetts, April 13, 2018
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that his own economic forecast and the forecasts of his colleagues on the Fed's policy committee are "quite positive" ? citing fairly strong economic growth, job creation, falling unemployment, and inflation rising close to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. But Rosengren detailed both short-run and longer-run risks to that positive outlook.
Exploring current economic conditions and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) 60th Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, October 1, 2018
While inflation remains well contained to date, pushing the economy too hard risks inflationary concerns or financial-stability risks. Either of these outcomes might necessitate a more forceful monetary policy response. While a more forceful policy might be appropriate under such conditions, it is not a risk-free strategy and could put at risk the continued expansion. The history of rapid rate increases in the U.S. suggests that such a risk is real, and as a result my preference for a strategy that allows a continued, but gradual, pace of monetary tightening.
Exploring current economic conditions and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at 1Berkshire Economic Outlook Luncheon, Dalton, Massachusetts, October 26, 2018
Topics covered include: recent monetary policy actions; outlook -- continued robust growth; clear risks to the forecast; how should policy respond to strong base forecast but rising risks?; inflation for goods and services; exports are important and uncertain.