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Keywords:labor market tightness 

Journal Article
Labor Market Tightness after the COVID-19 Recession: Differences across Industries

Industries that contributed most to rising U.S. labor market tightness after the COVID-19 recession had large individual increases and high employment shares.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
A State-Level Look at U.S. Labor Market Supply and Demand

Variations in labor market tightness across the U.S. at the end of 2022 appear to have been caused primarily by whether job openings were rising or falling.
The Regional Economist

Working Paper
Where Did the Workers Go? The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness

During the COVID pandemic there were unprecedented shortfalls in immigration. At the same time, during the economic recovery, the labor market was tight, with the number of vacancies per unemployed worker reaching 2.5, more than twice its pre-pandemic average. In this paper, we investigate whether these two trends are linked. We do not find evidence to support the hypothesis that the immigration shortfalls caused the tight labor market for two reasons. First, at the peak, we were missing about 2 million immigrant workers, but this number had largely recovered by February 2022 just as the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-003

Working Paper
Excess Persistence in Employment of Disadvantaged Workers

We examine persistence in employment-to-population ratios in excess of that implied by persistence in aggregate labor market conditions, among less-educated individuals using state-level data for the United States. Dynamic panel regressions and local projections indicate a moderate degree of excess persistence, which dissipates within three years. We find no significant asymmetry between the excess persistence of high vs. low employment rates. The cumulative effect of excess persistence in the business cycle surrounding the 2001 recession was mildly positive, while the effect in the cycle ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-01R

Journal Article
What’s the Best Measure of Economic Slack?

Different ways of measuring the economy’s unused capacity, or slack, can result in varying inflation forecasts. Estimates suggest that direct measures of labor market tightness, such as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment or the rate of employee job switching, provide more accurate forecasts than commonly used measures, such as the unemployment rate or the output gap. Recent elevated values of these measures of labor market tightness suggest greater inflation pressure than is implied by the unemployment rate alone.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 04 , Pages 05

Working Paper
Hysteresis in Employment among Disadvantaged Workers

We examine hysteresis in employment-to-population ratios among less-educated men using state-level data. Results from dynamic panel regressions indicate a moderate degree of hysteresis: The effects of past employment rates on subsequent employment rates can be substantial but essentially dissipate within three years. This finding is robust to a number of variations. We find no substantial asymmetry in the persistence of high vs. low employment rates. The cumulative effect of hysteresis in the business cycle surrounding the 2001 recession was mildly positive, while the effect in the cycle ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1801

Journal Article
Where Are Labor Markets the Tightest? A Tale of the 100 Largest US Cities

How does labor market tightness vary across the US, and how have labor markets changed since the pandemic? The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is a common measure.
Economic Synopses , Issue 25 , Pages 3 pages

Journal Article
Despite a Tight Labor Market, Job Opportunities Lag for Eighth District Out-of-School Young Adults

Out-of-school young adults in the Eighth District have made employment gains in a tight labor market but continue to encounter barriers to finding jobs.
The Regional Economist

Discussion Paper
Pandemic Wage Pressures

The recovery since the onset of the pandemic has been characterized by a tight labor market and rising nominal wage growth. In this post, we look at labor market conditions from a more granular, sectoral point of view focusing on data covering the nine major industries. This breakdown is motivated by the exceptionality of the pandemic episode, the way it has asymmetrically affected sectors of the economy, and by the possibility of exploiting sectoral heterogeneities to understand the drivers of recent labor market dynamics. We document that wage pressures are highest in the sectors with the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220804

Can Earnings Calls Be Used to Gauge Labor Market Tightness?

An index that uses textual analysis of earnings calls to track labor issues appears to be highly correlated to one measure of labor market tightness.
On the Economy

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