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Using Data to Show When Recessions End
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-11-17)
Could weekly data—such as the Weekly Economic Index—be used in calculating when recessions end, in addition to monthly and quarterly data?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Are recent college graduates finding good jobs?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Su, Yaquin (2014)
According to numerous accounts, the Great Recession has left many recent college graduates struggling to find jobs that utilize their education. However, a look at the data on the employment outcomes for recent graduates over the past two decades suggests that such difficulties are not a new phenomenon: individuals just beginning their careers often need time to transition into the labor market. Still, the percentage who are unemployed or ?underemployed??working in a job that typically does not require a bachelor?s degree?has risen, particularly since the 2001 recession. Moreover, the quality ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 20

Journal Article
Women Affected Most by COVID-19 Disruptions in the Labor Market
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Sun, Qiuhan (2021-03-23)
Despite gains in highly skilled jobs over the years, women experienced a higher unemployment rate than men during the 2020 recession.
The Regional Economist , Volume 29 , Issue 1

Which Workers Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Amburgey, Aaron; Birinci, Serdar (2020-07-30)
Occupations that earn less than $34,963 on average—such as cashiers, servers and janitors—accounted for 34% of the increase in unemployment from January to April.
On the Economy

Briefing
Projecting Unemployment and Demographic Trends
Mullin, John; Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna (2019-09)
Demographic forces have profoundly shaped the dynamics of U.S. labor force participation and unemployment over the past forty years. Recognizing the importance of these employment indicators for the conduct of monetary policy, this Economic Brief explores how they have been influenced by the U.S. population's changing gender, educational, and age profile. Based on the authors' estimates, the trend U.S. unemployment rate will decline to 4.3 percent over the next ten years as the population continues to age and increase its educational attainment.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue September

Speech
Pandemic Ebbs and Flows: Economic Data, Inflation Concerns, and Policymaking
Rosengren, Eric S. (2021-05-05)
With a shock as large as the pandemic, policymakers need to be alert to potential changes to the economy. To date, inflation expectations and the underlying inflation rate look to be stable. It is important to keep in mind the difficulty that was experienced in achieving inflation of 2 percent in the United States and most of the developed world after the Great Financial Crisis. As a result, my perspective is that the emphasis on actual outcomes rather than forecasts of rising inflationary pressures when setting monetary policy appears justified. However, given the noise in the data, it will ...
Speech

Newsletter
Wage Growth, Inflation and the Labor Share
Barrow, Lisa; Faberman, R. Jason (2015)
The recent pattern of nominal wage growth has been a puzzle to economists, researchers and policymakers because it lies well below the trend wage growth predicted by inflation and productivity growth. We show that the difference can be reconciled by accounting for the labor share of output, which has been on a declining trend for the past 15 years.
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
A Simple Model of Gross Worker Flows across Labor Market States
Veracierto, Marcelo (2015-04)
The author develops a simple model of the gross flows of workers across labor market states that is based on Krusell et al. (2012). Its simplicity allows for analytical derivations that make the determination of these flows transparent. Moreover, he finds that if errors in the classification of agents? labor market states are introduced and allowed to vary over time, the model has the ability to generate business cycle dynamics similar to those observed in the U.S. data. However, its dynamics are driven essentially by exogenous factors, not endogenous ones.
Economic Perspectives , Issue Q II

Journal Article
Introducing, Understanding, and Using the ICI 300 Peer Cities Identification Tool
O'Dell, Mark; George, Taz; Longworth, Susan (2016)
Municipalities, especially those that are mid-sized or smaller, often face significant challenges in providing services and amenities to meet the needs of their diverse and changing populations. Solutions are usually context-specific and must factor in larger demographic and economic trends, in order to be effective. And, yet, in spite of contextual differences, cities frequently have meaningful similarities. However, identifying peer cities is often informed more by conversation than by data or evidence.
Profitwise , Issue 4 , Pages 3-8

Discussion Paper
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Survey Goals, Design and Content
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2013-12-04)
Starting in the first quarter of 2014, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) will begin reporting findings from a new national survey designed to elicit consumers? expectations for a wide range of household-level and aggregate economic and financial conditions. This week, we provide an introduction to the new survey in a series of four blog posts. In this first post, we discuss the overall objectives of the new survey, its sample design, and content. In the posts that follow, we will provide further details and present preliminary findings from the survey on three broad categories of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131204b

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