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Journal Article
A Strong Labor Market Has Narrowed Gaps in Participation and Employment between Black and White Non-College Men
Black and Hispanic workers faced disproportionately larger declines in labor force participation than white workers during the pandemic-led recession. This gap appears consistent with previous recessions: the labor market outcomes of racial and ethnic minorities tend to deteriorate more than those of white workers during recessions, widening gaps in participation, employment, and wages during downturns. However, the labor market has since recovered, with employment rising above pre-pandemic levels. Have gaps in labor market outcomes between Black and white workers narrowed?Didem Tüzemen and ...
Briefing
Networks, Innovation and Productivity: A Conference Recap
How do employment targets affect firm dynamics? What is the relationship between inventor migration, and local productivity and knowledge spillovers? How are surplus gains from inventions distributed? These were among the questions addressed by economists during a recent Richmond Fed research conference.Economists from the Richmond Fed, research universities and other institutions met in Richmond for a conference in May. Researchers presented papers on a variety of topics, including digital advertising, R&D allocation, production networks, and knowledge creation and diffusion.
Journal Article
President's Message: Bringing Talent to Small Towns
Over the last few decades, we've seen small towns struggle, particularly those that lost manufacturers, which had historically helped build communities, employ residents, and forge local identities. As a natural reaction, economic development in small-town America has often focused on replacing those big employers. These efforts attracted investment, but success wasn't easy.
Journal Article
Labor Market May Remain Tight until Labor Demand Cools Further
U.S. labor demand—measured by job openings or vacancies—has started to cool but is still elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, labor supply—measured by the labor force participation rate remains below pre-pandemic levels. This weakness in the labor force participation rate may persist, as it reflects lower participation among older individuals. Accordingly, the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market may continue until labor demand cools further.
Speech
Remarks for the National Association of Corporate Directors New England Chapter
Susan Collins shared remarks during a National Association of Corporate Directors (NACD) New England Chapter meeting, covering aspects of the economy she recently discussed at the Economic Club of New York.
Journal Article
Labor Constraints and Strong Demand Are Driving Robust Food Services Inflation
Although headline inflation has slowed in recent months, inflation for core services has remained elevated since the first half of 2021. Inflation for food services in particular has been significantly higher than inflation for goods and other services. We argue that food services inflation has been elevated by the sector’s fast rebound in expenditures and its high dependency on labor amid labor shortages and elevated labor costs.
Speech
Perspectives on the Economy, and on the Opportunities Ahead
Speech to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. In her first speech as president of the Boston Fed, Susan Collins touched on a broad range of topics, including monetary policy, her vision as leader of the Boston Reserve Bank, and the work being done at the Bank to support a vibrant regional and national economy.
Discussion Paper
The State of Hiring in the Fifth District
The past two years have been marked by a historically tight labor market in which many firms have had difficulty hiring and retaining workers who possess the necessary skill sets. In a recent post, we explored evidence from our business surveys that suggests that the labor market may be cooling somewhat. Our employment and availability of skills indexes have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and our estimates of wage growth have come down from their 2022 peak. Nonetheless, wage growth estimates remain above pre-pandemic levels, and data from our August surveys suggests that many firms are ...
Discussion Paper
How Have Racial and Ethnic Earnings Gaps Changed after COVID-19?
Racial and ethnic earnings disparities have been salient features of the U.S. economy for decades. Between the pandemic-driven recession in 2020 and the rising inflation since 2021, workers’ real and nominal earnings have seen rapid change. To get a sense of how recent economic conditions have affected earnings disparities, we examine real and nominal weekly earnings trends for Asian, Black, Hispanic, and white workers. We find that average real weekly earnings have been declining in the past year, but less so for Black and Hispanic workers than for white and Asian workers. Black and ...
Discussion Paper
Are Signs of Labor Market Normalization Reflected in Wage Growth?
There have been two salient features of the U.S. economy in the past two years: a tight labor market and high inflation. In the Richmond Fed business surveys, the tight labor market has manifested in a high employment index combined with a low availability of skills index; high inflation has corresponded with extreme elevation in our survey's measures of growth in prices paid and prices received. Recently, all of these survey measures have either reached or made notable progress toward reaching more historically normal levels. It is hard to imagine, however, a rebalanced labor market or ...