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Working Paper
Household Liquidity and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Mortgage Forbearance
Lee, Sean Chanwook; Maghzian, Omeed (2023-09-10)
We estimate the impact of household liquidity provision on macroeconomic stabilization using the 2020 CARES Act mortgage forbearance program. We leverage intermediation frictions in forbearance induced by mortgage servicers to identify the effect of reducing short-term payments with little change in long-term debt obligations on local labor market outcomes. Following statewide business reopenings, a 1 percentage point increase in the share of mortgages in forbearance leads to a 30 basis point increase in monthly employment growth in nontradable industries. In a model incorporating ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-12

Discussion Paper
AI and the Labor Market: Will Firms Hire, Fire, or Retrain?
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Emanuel, Natalia; Hyman, Benjamin (2024-09-04)
The rapid rise in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to dramatically change the labor market, and indeed possibly even the nature of work itself. However, how firms are adjusting their workforces to accommodate this emerging technology is not yet clear. Our August regional business surveys asked manufacturing and service firms special topical questions about their use of AI, and how it is changing their workforces. Most firms that report expected AI use in the next six months plan to retrain their workforces, with far fewer reporting adjustments to planned headcounts.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240904b

Speech
Perspectives on the Economy, and on the Opportunities Ahead
Collins, Susan M. (2022-09-26)
Speech to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. In her first speech as president of the Boston Fed, Susan Collins touched on a broad range of topics, including monetary policy, her vision as leader of the Boston Reserve Bank, and the work being done at the Bank to support a vibrant regional and national economy.
Speech

Journal Article
Lifetime Earnings Differences across Black and White Individuals: Years Worked Matter
Glover, Andrew; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Pollard, Emily (2022-12-01)
In this article, Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Río, and Emily Pollard go beyond point-in-time measures of earnings and examine lifetime earnings differences between Black and white individuals. They find that, on average, Black individuals earn about one-third less than white individuals over the course of their lifetimes (a difference equivalent to about $550,000), though the size of this gap varies by sex and education level. In addition, they find that differences in years worked, which are not captured by point-in-time measures, contribute substantially to earnings differences between ...
Economic Review , Volume 108 , Issue no.1

Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties?
Terry, Ellyn; de Zeeuw, Mels (2018-03-01)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Banks' 2017 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), this paper investigates the various ways in which different types of firms with less than 500 employees experience and address hiring difficulties, including when they decide to increase compensation.The authors find significant variation in hiring difficulties by type of firm, and a firm's response appears to depend on the nature of the problem. The most common response is to increase compensation, with firms that experience competition from other employers being the most likely to do so. Other common ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper , Paper 2018-01

Briefing
How Did Pandemic UI Benefits Affect Employment Recovery in Local Industry Markets?
Hornstein, Andreas; Karabarbounis, Marios; Kurmann, Andre; Lale, Etienne (2022-11)
We analyze the employment recovery of low-wage establishments relative to the employment recovery of high-wage establishments within local labor markets, and we find a slower recovery in low-wage establishments. We associate the difference with the expanded generosity of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) supplements, which have a larger negative effect on the job-filling rate of low-paying establishments. We use a model of labor search to translate our establishment-level observations into a disincentive effect of pandemic UI benefits at the worker level.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 44

Journal Article
Why Has Monetary Policy Tightening Not Cooled the Labor Market Enough to Quell Inflation?
Dilts Stedman, Karlye; Pollard, Emily (2023-03-31)
Despite a year of rapidly rising interest rates, labor markets remain tight, likely contributing to the persistence of inflation. We create industry-specific versions of the KC Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) to examine labor market tightness in different sectors. We find that labor markets in the services sector—which have contributed substantially to recent labor market tightness and inflation—are less sensitive to changes in interest rates, increasing the lag for monetary policy transmission.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Monetary Policy with Racial Inequality
Nakajima, Makoto (2023-05-30)
I develop a heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model featuring racial inequality in income and wealth, and studies interactions between racial inequality and monetary policy. Black and Hispanic workers gain more from accommodative monetary policy than White workers mainly due to higher labor market risks. Their gains are larger also because of a larger proportion of them are hand-to-mouth, while wealthy White workers gain more from asset price appreciation. Monetary and fiscal policies are substitutes in providing insurance against cyclical labor market risks. Racial minorities gain even more ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-09

Journal Article
Job Mobility During and After the Pandemic
Banerjee, Abhimanyu (2022-10)
n the past few years, job changing in the United States — workers leaving their current employers for new ones — seems to have been on the rise. This development, often called the "Great Resignation," has attracted much attention, but the reasons behind it are far from clear. Is it the result of health and safety concerns causing workers to pull away from the workforce, or of workers reappraising their work-life balance? Or is it, perhaps, the rippling effects of the move toward remote work? It is even possible, as some have argued, that the Great Resignation is not so great after all and ...
Econ Focus , Volume 22 , Issue 4Q , Pages 4-6

Briefing
How Domestic Outsourcing Affects the Labor Market
Macaluso, Claudia (2023-11)
In this article, I focus on a few ways domestic outsourcing affects our understanding of the labor market. Jobs filled and emptied by temporary workers are never included in the official tally of job creation and job destruction, which leads to significantly underestimating the magnitude of labor market flows. Domestic outsourcing also changes the interpretation of firm reactions to productivity changes, as well as the magnitude and meaning of a secular decline in measures of labor market dynamism such as the job reallocation rate. Outsourcing is important for plants in modifying their ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 23 , Issue 36

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