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Journal Article
Asset Returns and Labor Force Participation During COVID-19
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2022-01-06)
Why did so many people retire during the pandemic?
Economic Synopses

Working Paper
Women's Labor Force Exits during COVID-19: Differences by Motherhood, Race, and Ethnicity
Lim, Katherine; Zabek, Mike (2021-10-18)
In this paper, we study declines in women's labor force participation by race and ethnicity as well as the presence of children. We find that increases in labor force exits were larger for Black women, Latinas, and women living with children. In particular, we find larger increases in pandemic-era labor force exits among women living with children under age 6 and among lower-earning women living with school-age children after controlling for detailed job and demographic characteristics. Latinas and Black women also had larger increases in labor force exits during the pandemic relative to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-067

Discussion Paper
What Has Driven the Labor Force Participation Gap since February 2020?
Amiti, Mary; Heise, Sebastian; Topa, Giorgio; Wu, Julia (2023-03-30)
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) currently stands at 62.5 percent, 0.8 percentage point below its level in February 2020. This “participation gap” translates into 2.1 million workers out of the labor force. In this post, we evaluate three potential drivers of the gap: First, population aging from the baby boomers reaching retirement age puts downward pressure on participation. Second, the share of individuals of retirement age that are actually retired has risen since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, long COVID and disability more generally may induce more people ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230330

Journal Article
Why Are Workers Staying Out of the U.S. Labor Force?
Gregory, Victoria; Steinberg, Joel (2022-02-02)
Shifts in retirement and people taking care of family or the home appear to be behind the drop in labor market participation.
The Regional Economist

Are Higher Child Care Wages Affecting the Labor Supply?
Bick, Alexander; Gregory, Victoria; Leukhina, Oksana (2023-07-11)
An analysis suggests that a rebound in labor force participation among women with a partner and child could have been stronger during the pandemic if not dampened by child care costs.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects
Smith, Christopher L.; Aaronson, Stephanie; Fallick, Bruce; Galbis-Reig, Felix; Wascher, William L.; Cajner, Tomaz (2014-09-10)
Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1410

Journal Article
Men’s Falling Labor Force Participation across Generations
Bengali, Leila; Duzhak, Evgeniya A.; Zhao, Cindy (2023-10-10)
The labor force participation rate for prime-age men has been declining for decades. About 14% of millennial males at age 25 are not in the labor force, compared with 7% of baby boomer males when they were that age. This generational gap declines substantially as groups approach middle age; the decline reflects that younger millennials enrolled in postsecondary education at higher rates and moved into the workforce later than prior generations. The convergence for millennial males suggests that the trend of men’s higher nonparticipation rates may slow in the future.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 06 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Schweitzer, Mark E.; Fee, Kyle; Aliprantis, Dionissi (2019-03-01)
This paper studies the relationship between local opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes. We improve the joint measurement of labor market outcomes and prescription rates in the rural areas where nearly 30 percent of the US population lives. We find that increasing the local prescription rate by 10 percent decreases the prime-age employment rate by 0.50 percentage points for men and 0.17 percentage points for women. This effect is larger for white men with less than a BA (0.70 percentage points) and largest for minority men with less than a BA (1.01 percentage points). Geography ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-07R

Working Paper
The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation
Van Zandweghe, Willem; Tuzemen, Didem (2018-08-01)
We document that labor force participation declines in the short run following a positive technology shock. The countercyclical response of labor force participation to a technology shock contrasts with the well documented mild procyclical behavior of labor force participation in the business cycle. In a search model of the labor market that incorporates a participation choice, we show that a positive technology shock reduces labor force participation in the short run under a reasonable calibration. In the calibrated model, discount factor shocks induce a procyclical response of labor force ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-8

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