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Journal Article
Pandemic Labor Force Participation and Net Worth Fluctuations
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2024-01-05)
The US labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2 percent as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 percentage points below its pre-pandemic peak. This gap is explained mostly by a permanent decline in the LFPR for workers older than 55. This article argues that wealth effects driven by the historically high returns in major asset classes such as stocks and housing may have influenced these trends. Combining an estimated model of wealth effects on labor supply with micro data on balance sheet composition, we ...
Review , Volume 106 , Issue 1 , Pages 40-58

Single Mothers Face Difficulties with Slim Financial Cushions
Kent, Ana Hernández (2022-05-09)
During the COVID-19 recession, single mothers faced high unemployment and were more likely to exit the labor force than single fathers and women without children.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Asset Returns and Labor Force Participation During COVID-19
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2022-01-06)
Why did so many people retire during the pandemic?
Economic Synopses

Newsletter
Did Covid-19 disproportionately affect mothers’ labor market activity?
Hu, Luojia; Aaronson, Daniel; Rajan, Aastha (2021-01-14)
School and day care center restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic have presented enormous challenges to parents trying to juggle work with child-care responsibilities. Still, empirical evidence on the impact of pandemic-related child-care constraints on the labor market outcomes of working parents is somewhat mixed. Some studies suggest the pandemic had no additional impact on the labor supply of parents, while other studies show not only that it did but that the negative impact was disproportionately borne by working mothers.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 450 , Pages 5

Labor Force Participation and Hours Worked Recovery: U.S. vs. Europe
Bick, Alexander; Bloodworth II, Kevin (2023-12-21)
The labor force participation rate in the U.S. had returned to its pre-pandemic level by 2023:Q2, but hours worked per person had not. What about in European countries?
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?
Potter, Simon M.; McCarthy, Jonathan; Sahin, Aysegul (2012-04-02)
A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions. The key to the importance of outflows is that within long expansions there have not been adverse shocks that lead to a burst of job losses. To illustrate the power of this mechanism, we presented simulations in a previous post that were based on the movements in the outflow and inflow rates in the previous three expansions. These simulated paths show the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120402

Report
Population Aging and the US Labor Force Participation Rate
Cooper, Daniel H.; Foote, Christopher L.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Olivei, Giovanni P. (2021-12-20)
The labor force participation rate dropped sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, and as of November 2021 it had recovered only about half of its lost ground. The failure of the participation rate to get closer to its level immediately before the pandemic has puzzled many analysts. In this note, we show that the current participation rate is much less puzzling if one compares it with participation in November 2017 (the last time the unemployment rate was at its current level of 4.2 percent), rather than February 2020 (immediately before the pandemic). Since November 2017, population aging ...
Current Policy Perspectives

Working Paper
Pandemic labor force participation and net worth fluctuations
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2023-05-01)
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2% as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 pp below its pre-pandemic peak. This gap is explained mostly by a permanent decline in the LFPR for workers older than 55. This paper argues that wealth effects driven by the historically high returns in major asset classes such as stocks and housing may have influenced these trends. Combining an estimated model of wealth effects on labor supply with micro data on balance sheet composition, we show that changes in net ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-010

Working Paper
Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (2014-08-01)
As a measure of labor market strength, the raw employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) confounds employment outcomes with labor supply behavior. Movement in the EPOP depends on the relative movements of the employment rate (one minus the unemployment rate) and the labor force participation rate. This paper proposes an adjustment to the calculation of the EPOP using individual microdata to account for both individual characteristics and the probability of labor force participation, which can used to assess the strength of the labor market.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-8

Journal Article
To Retire or Keep Working after a Pandemic?
Miskanic, Brandon E.; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Zhao, Cindy (2024-03-25)
Workers age 55 and older left the labor force in large numbers following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, participation within this age group has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite the strongest labor market in decades. This has resulted in an estimated shortfall of nearly 2 million workers. Analysis shows that the participation shortfall is concentrated among workers in this age group without a college degree and can be explained by increased and growing retirement rates for this group, above pre-pandemic trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 08 , Pages 5

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