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Monograph
Gone to Texas: immigration and the transformantion of the Texas economy
The United States welcomes more immigrants than any other country, and Texas welcomes more migrants?foreign and domestic?than any other state. Nearly half of all new arrivals to the state are foreign born. With a population of over 4 million immigrants, Texas is one of the top three states in terms of the number of foreign born living within its borders. Immigration to Texas has been both a cause and consequence of rapid regional growth. The strong economy and the Texas business model?low taxes, few regulations and a low cost of labor?have attracted many businesses and workers in recent ...
Working Paper
Minimum wages and firm employment: evidence from China
This paper studies how minimum wage policies affect firm employment in China using a unique county level minimum wage data set matched to disaggregated firm survey data. We investigate both the effect of imposing a minimum wage, and the effect of the policies that tightened enforcement in 2004. We find that the average effect of minimum wage changes is modest and positive, and that there is a detectable effect after enforcement reform. Firms have heterogeneous responses to minimum wage changes which can be accounted for by differences in their wage levels and profit margins: firms with high ...
Discussion Paper
Good News or Bad on New York City Jobs?
Unlike much of the nation, New York City has seen a robust rebound in employment since the recession. In early 2012, employment here reached 3.86 million, the largest number of jobs ever recorded. Yet the city?s unemployment rate has risen in recent months and is now 10 percent?its peak during the recession?and well above the 5 percent rate seen before the downturn. This lack of improvement reflects the fact that the number of employed residents of the city has not rebounded at all from its losses during the 2008-09 downturn. While commuters from outside the city have always been a part of ...
Newsletter
Changing Labor Force Composition and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
This article discusses why changes in the composition of the labor force may have lowered the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment?the unemployment rate that would prevail in an economy making full use of its productive resources?to 5 percent or less. A lower natural rate may help explain why wage inflation and price inflation remain low despite actual unemployment recently reaching 5.5 percent?a figure only slightly above prominent estimates of the natural rate, such as that of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Demographic and other changes should continue to lower the natural rate ...
Journal Article
An Unemployment Crisis after the Onset of COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. labor market, with massive job losses and a spike in unemployment to its highest level since the Great Depression. How long unemployment will remain at crisis levels is highly uncertain and will depend on the speed and success of coronavirus containment measures. Historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique aspects of the coronavirus economy, can help in assessing potential paths of unemployment. Unless hiring rises to unprecedented levels, unemployment could remain severely elevated well into next year.
Journal Article
Workers' Shrinking Share of the Pie
Features: {{p}} Economists have advanced a wide variety of explanations for why workers' share of overall income has been going down
Journal Article
When the Robots Came
Book Review of "The Future of Work: Robots, AI, and Automation by Darrell M. West, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2018, 205 pages."
Journal Article
Help Wanted: Employers are having a hard time hiring. Not enough workers or not the right skills?
Cover story article on: Help Wanted: Employers are having a hard time hiring. Not enough workers or not the right skills?
Speech
An Economic Outlook - 2019 Inquirer Influencers of Finance
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker provided remarks on his economic outlook, the labor market, job skills, and the future of work at the 2019 Inquirer Influencers of Finance event. "It's my hope that more businesses in the region ? and across the country ? will begin to take another look at how they're approaching training and hiring," Harker said.