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Keywords:job vacancies 

Journal Article
Do Immigration Restrictions Affect Job Vacancies? Evidence from Online Job Postings

The U.S. workforce relies heavily on immigration. However, a series of policy changes and the COVID-19 pandemic led to a rare decline in immigrant arrivals from 2016 to 2021. This period of reduced immigration coincided with and exacerbated already severe shortages in the U.S. labor market, leading employers and firms to look for new sources of labor. At the same time, online job postings became more prevalent as a method of searching for labor. These postings provide rich data that could help reveal how different dimensions of labor demand change in response to declining immigration.Elior ...
Economic Review , Volume vol.108 , Issue no.4 , Pages 30

Journal Article
The Effect of Higher Financing Costs on Job Openings and Online Job Postings

In this Economic Commentary, we consider whether the declines in vacancies seen in the second half of 2022 could have been driven by monetary policy tightening. We look at whether the variation in this decline across industries and states was consistent with increases in the federal funds rate. Our first strategy focuses on variation at the industry level in exposure to higher borrowing costs. Our second leverages geographic differences in the effect of monetary policy tightening on financing costs. Both strategies suggest that monetary policy is, at least in part, responsible for the recent ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2023 , Issue 09 , Pages 7

Journal Article
Reducing Inflation along a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

Inflation has climbed since 2021, as the labor market has tightened. Two historical data relationships can account for elevated inflation over the past two years: the Beveridge curve, which relates job vacancies and unemployment rates over the business cycle, and a nonlinear version of the Phillips curve, which links inflation to labor market slack. Combining estimates of the two curves implies that inflation can fall in conjunction with a “soft landing” for the economy if labor market easing is achieved mainly by reducing job vacancies rather than increasing unemployment.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 17 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Labor Market May Remain Tight until Labor Demand Cools Further

U.S. labor demand—measured by job openings or vacancies—has started to cool but is still elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, labor supply—measured by the labor force participation rate remains below pre-pandemic levels. This weakness in the labor force participation rate may persist, as it reflects lower participation among older individuals. Accordingly, the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market may continue until labor demand cools further.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 21, 2022 , Pages 4


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