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Blog
Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19: An Update

This blog post updates our earlier analysis of the potential jobs impacted by Covid-19. The update reflects three adjustments to the original analysis. First, we updated our guesses on the shares of each industry employed and working at still-operating businesses based on the Labor Department’s March Employment Situation report. Second, we use an updated model to estimate the possible June unemployment rates from initial unemployment insurance claims data (the model details are found here. Finally, we use unemployment rate predictions that incorporate the data from the April 2 report on ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Journal Article
Strength of economy, limited benefit eligibility in Texas curb long-term unemployment rate

An unemployment rate with a persistent long-term component can be more detrimental to the economy than the same jobless rate with a smaller share of long-term unemployed.
Southwest Economy , Issue Q2 , Pages 3-20

Newsletter
What is the Economic Impact of the Slowdown in New Business Formation?

Economists have emphasized the importance of ?creative destruction? as an engine of growth. The creative destruction process involves a constant reorganization of the economy as old products, firms, factories, and jobs are replaced by new ones. An important part of this process lies in the opening of new firms or establishments.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Sep

Newsletter
Job Switching and Wage Growth

This article shows a remarkably strong relationship between job switching and nominal wage growth. We also find a fairly strong relationship between job switching and the cyclical component of inflation. Furthermore, job switching seems to be predictive of both wage growth and inflation.
Chicago Fed Letter

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