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Report
President’s Message: Trade and Globalization since the 1980s
Bullard, James B. (2022)
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discusses the growth of international trade since the 1980s and the reassessment of globalization in recent years.
Annual Report

Working Paper
Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
Cuba-Borda, Pablo A.; Queraltó, Albert; Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo M.; Scaramucci, Mikaël (2025-03-04)
We explore how shocks to trade costs affect inflation dynamics in the global economy. We exploit bilateral trade flows of final and intermediate goods together with the structure of static trade models that deliver gravity equations to identify exogenous changes in trade costs between countries. We then use a local projections approach to assess the effects of trade cost shocks on consumer price (CPI) inflation. Higher trade costs of final goods lead to large but short-lived increases in inflation, while increases in trade costs of intermediate goods generate small but persistent increases in ...
Working Papers , Paper 2508

Working Paper
Heterogeneous Agents Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2023-03-22)
I develop a dynamic model of migration and labor market choice with incomplete markets and uninsurable income risk to quantify the effects of international trade on workers’ employment reallocation, earnings, and wealth. Macroeconomic conditions in different labor markets and idiosyncratic shocks shape agents’ labor market choices, consumption, earnings, and asset accumulation over time. Despite the rich heterogeneity, the model is highly tractable as the optimal consumption, labor supply, capital accumulation, and migration and reallocation decisions of individual workers across ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-005

Journal Article
Did Importers Try to Front-Run Recent Tariffs on China?
Cook, Thomas R.; Dzholos, Mariia (2025-01-17)
Because tariffs are a tax on foreign goods, tariffs are thought to reduce imports. However, imports may actually increase after a tariff is announced if importers can stock inventories ahead of the tariff’s implementation. We find that after the announcement of additional tariffs on China in May 2024, imports from China increased by 15 percent for EV batteries, which are difficult to substitute.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
Financial Frictions and International Trade
Szkup, Michal; Leibovici, Fernando; Kohn, David (2021-07-08)
This paper reviews recent studies on the impact of financial frictions on international trade. We first present evidence on the relation between measures of access to external finance and export decisions. We then present an analytical framework to analyze the impact of financial frictions on firms' export decisions. Finally, we review recent applications of this framework to investigate the impact of financial frictions on international trade dynamics across firms, industries, and in the aggregate. We discuss related empirical, theoretical, and quantitative studies throughout.
Working Papers , Paper 2021-009

Briefing
Supply Chain Resilience and the Effects of Economic Shocks
Morales, Nicolas (2025-01)
Supply chains have long been integral to the U.S. economy, allowing firms to capitalize on specialization and efficiency. However, recent developments like the COVID-19 pandemic, global geopolitical tensions and increasing climate risk have revealed their vulnerabilities as well as their abilities to propagate and amplify economic shocks. In response, firms and policymakers are increasingly focusing on strategies to bolster supply chain resilience. This article explores how economic shocks can propagate through the supply chain, the trade-offs associated with resilience investments, and ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 25 , Issue 02

Working Paper
Shortages of Critical Goods in a Global Economy: Optimal Trade and Industrial Policy
Leibovici, Fernando; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2023-12)
This paper studies the role for optimal trade and industrial policy to mitigate shortages of critical goods following global shocks. We develop a dynamic model of trade with producers of essential and non-essential goods owned by heterogeneous households under incomplete markets. Shocks that increase global demand for critical goods lead to underinvestment relative to an economy with a representative household or complete markets. Trade exacerbates the shock as producers reallocate domestic sales toward exports. Shortages can be mitigated, increasing welfare, by taxing exports while ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-010

Working Paper
Financial Development and International Trade
Leibovici, Fernando (2020-06)
This paper studies the industry-level and aggregate implications of financial development on international trade. I set up a multi-industry general equilibrium model of international trade with input-output linkages and heterogeneous firms subject to financial frictions. Industries differ in capital-intensity, which leads to differences in external finance dependence. The model is parameterized to match key features of firm-level data. Financial development leads to substantial reallocation of international trade shares from labor- to capital-intensive industries, with minor effects at the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-015

Working Paper
Navigating the Waves of Global Shipping: Drivers and Aggregate Implications
Dunn, Jason; Leibovici, Fernando (2023-02)
This paper studies the drivers of global shipping dynamics and their aggregate implications. We document novel evidence on the dynamics of global shipping supply, demand, and prices. Motivated by this evidence, we set up a multi-country dynamic model of international trade with a global shipping market where shipping companies and importers endogenously determine shipping supply and prices. We find the model can successfully account for the dynamics of global shipping observed in the aftermath of COVID-19 and that accounting for these has important implications for the dynamics of aggregate ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-002

Working Paper
International trade and labor reallocation: misclassification errors, mobility, and switching costs
Dvorkin, Maximiliano (2023-12)
International trade has increased at a rapid pace in the last decades, altering production and labor demand in different sectors of the economy. The estimated effects of trade on employment and welfare critically depend on data about workers’ reallocation patterns, which is typically plagued with coding errors. I show that the estimated employment and welfare effects of international trade, and the estimated structural parameters of standard models are biased when the analysis uses data subject to misclassification errors. I develop an econometric framework to estimate misclassification ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-014

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