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Keywords:international trade 

Working Paper
Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization

We add to recent evidence on deindustrialization and document a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time. We assess whether these new features of structural change can be explained by a dynamic open economy model with two primary driving forces, sector-biased productivity growth and sectoral trade integration. We calibrate the model to the same countries used to document our patterns. We find that sector-biased productivity growth is important for deindustrialization by reducing the relative price of manufacturing to services, and sectoral trade integration is important for ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 428

Report
U.S. Market Concentration and Import Competition

A rapidly growing literature has shown that market concentration among domestic firms has increased in the United States over the last three decades. Using confidential census data for the manufacturing sector, we show that typical measures of concentration, once adjusted for sales by foreign exporters, actually stayed constant between 1992 and 2012. We reconcile these findings by linking part of the increase in domestic concentration to import competition. Although concentration among U.S.-based firms rose, the growth of foreign firms, mostly at the bottom of the sales distribution, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 968

Critical Goods and International Trade Dependence in the U.S.

Communications and IT are two critical sectors of the U.S. economy that are most reliant on international trade.
On the Economy

Report
President’s Message: Trade and Globalization since the 1980s

St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discusses the growth of international trade since the 1980s and the reassessment of globalization in recent years.
Annual Report

Report
Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations

This paper uses a data set covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. The largest firms are both important enough to generate aggregate fluctuations (Gabaix 2011), and most likely to be internationally connected. This implies that foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the largest firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly ...
Staff Reports , Paper 947

Working Paper
International Trade of Essential Goods During a Pandemic

This paper studies the role of international trade of essential goods during a pandemic. We consider a multi-country, multi-sector model with essential and non-essential goods. Essential goods provide utility relative to a reference consumption level, and a pandemic consists of an increase in this reference level. Each country produces domestic varieties of both types of goods using capital and labor subject to sectoral adjustment costs, and all varieties are traded internationally subject to trade barriers. We study the role of international trade of essential goods in mitigating or ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-010

Working Paper
Navigating the Waves of Global Shipping: Drivers and Aggregate Implications

This paper studies the drivers of global shipping dynamics and their aggregate implications. We document novel evidence on the dynamics of global shipping supply, demand, and costs. Motivated by this evidence, we set up a dynamic model of international trade with a global shipping market where shipping firms and importers endogenously determine shipping supply and costs. We find the model successfully accounts for the dynamics of global shipping observed in the aftermath of COVID-19 as well as at business cycle frequencies. We find that accounting for global shipping is critical for the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-002

Working Paper
Knowledge Diffusion, Trade and Innovation across Countries and Sectors

We provide a unified framework for quantifying the cross country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. We study the effect of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. A reduction in trade costs induces a re-allocation of comparative advantage in production and innovation across sectors, which translates into higher growth along the counterfactual balanced growth path (BGP). Heterogeneous knowledge diffusion across ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-29

Speech
The Benefits and Casualties of Trade

It?s time for fiscal and other policies to take the lead in growing the American economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker said in a speech today at the Global Interdependence Center?s Central Banking Series in Dublin, Ireland. President Harker?s comments focused on the benefits and casualties of international trade
Speech , Paper 124

Working Paper
International Trade of Essential Goods During a Pandemic

This paper studies the role of international trade of essential goods during a pandemic. We consider a multi-country multi-sector model with essential and non-essential goods. Essential goods provide utility relative to a reference consumption level, and a pandemic consists of an increase in this reference level. Each country produces domestic varieties of both types of goods using capital and labor subject to sectoral adjustment costs, and all varieties are traded internationally subject to trade barriers. We study the role of international trade of essential goods in mitigating or ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-010

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