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Working Paper
FOMC communication and interest rate sensitivity to news
Tang, Jenny (2017-10-01)
In this paper, I examine whether communications by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) play a role in determining the types of macroeconomic news that financial markets pay attention to. To do so, I construct novel measures of the intensity with which FOMC statements and meeting minutes discussed labor relative to other topics. I find that these labor topic intensity measures are related to the amount by which interest rates? response to labor-related news exceeds their response to all other news. This relationship is especially strong for interest rates of longer maturities and is also ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-12

Speech
Restoring price stability
Logan, Lorie (2023-02-14)
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered this address on Feb. 14, 2023, at Prairie View A&M University.
Speeches and Essays

Report
LIBOR: origins, economics, crisis, scandal, and reform
Hou, David; Skeie, David R. (2014-03-01)
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is a widely used indicator of funding conditions in the interbank market. As of 2013, LIBOR underpins more than $300 trillion of financial contracts, including swaps and futures, in addition to trillions more in variable-rate mortgage and student loans. LIBOR's volatile behavior during the financial crisis provoked questions surrounding its credibility. Ongoing regulatory investigations have uncovered misconduct by a number of financial institutions. Policymakers across the globe now face the task of reforming LIBOR in the aftermath of the scandal and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 667

Working Paper
The insensitivity of investment to interest rates: Evidence from a survey of CFOs
Suarez, Gustavo A.; Sharpe, Steven A. (2013-12-03)
A fundamental tenet of investment theory and the traditional theory of monetary policy transmission is that investment expenditures by businesses are negatively affected by interest rates. Yet, a large body of empirical research offer mixed evidence, at best, for a substantial interest-rate effect on investment. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of investment plans to interest rates using a set of special questions asked of CFOs in the Global Business Outlook Survey conducted in the third quarter of 2012. Among the more than 500 responses to the special questions, we find that most ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-2

Speech
Bullard Speaks to MNI on the Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook
Bullard, James B. (2022-08-09)
Speaking to Market News International, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed his outlook on inflation, interest rates and the economy.Bullard reiterated his belief that the Fed's policy rate will reach 3.75% to 4% by the end of the year, adding that this level is a bit higher than he would have thought even a couple of months ago because "inflation has continued to broaden out and doesn't look like it's turning the corner, at least based on the evidence we have today."And if inflation continues to surprise to the upside, "we'll have to be higher for longer and the market will have to ...
Speech

Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
Frame, W. Scott; McCormick, Matthew (2023-04-04)
The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy in 2022, responding to high and persistent inflation. The resulting borrowing cost increase for households and firms was generally anticipated. However, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates were especially sensitive to the policy regime change.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch
Buera, Francisco J.; Nicolini, Juan Pablo (2014-05-14)
We study a model with heterogeneous producers that face collateral and cash in advance constraints. These two frictions give rise to a non-trivial financial market in a monetary economy. A tightening of the collateral constraint results in a credit-crunch generated recession. The model can suitable be used to study the effects on the main macroeconomic variables - and on welfare of each individual - of alternative monetary - and fiscal - policies following the credit crunch. The model reproduces several features of the recent financial crisis, like the persistent negative real interest rates, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2014-14

Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
Williams, John C. (2020-05-21)
Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Journal Article
Oil Shocks when Interest Rates Are at the Zero Lower Bound
Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Sergeyev, Dmitry (2022-11-30)
New evidence suggests that rising oil prices associated with declining oil supply slow economic activities less when interest rates are constrained at the zero lower bound. Moreover, these oil price spikes can even increase overall output. Evidence points to the following explanation. An oil supply shock raises inflation in all periods, but the nominal interest rate does not react under the zero lower bound, so the shock reduces the real interest rate, stimulating demand in the economy.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 34 , Pages 5

Speech
The First Steps Toward Disinflation in the U.S.
Bullard, James B. (2022-07-07)
Inflation in the U.S. is comparable to 1970s levels, and U.S. inflation expectations could become unmoored without credible Fed action, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said during a presentation to the Little Rock Regional Chamber. He noted that the Fed has reacted by taking important first steps to return inflation to the 2% target and that U.S. market interest rates have increased substantially, partially in response to promised Fed action.Bullard’s presentation was an update to versions given on June 1 at the Economic Club of Memphis and on June 20 in Barcelona. In the July 7 ...
Speech

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