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The Many Interest Rates in 2022
Kozlowski, Julian; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2023-01-12)
The one-year Treasury rate and the five-year, five-year forward rate on Treasuries told different stories in 2022, depending on whether one looked at nominal rates or real rates.
On the Economy

Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
Frame, W. Scott; McCormick, Matthew (2023-04-04)
The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy in 2022, responding to high and persistent inflation. The resulting borrowing cost increase for households and firms was generally anticipated. However, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates were especially sensitive to the policy regime change.
Dallas Fed Economics

Rising Interest Rates Bring Opportunities and Risks for Banks
White, Carl (2022-11-07)
Higher interest rates can improve net interest margins, but higher rates can also generate risks that banks must properly manage.
On the Economy

Newsletter
Understanding Recent Fluctuations in Short-Term Interest Rates
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam (2019)
In mid-September 2019, there were sudden, large fluctuations in short-term interest rates. Why did these fluctuations happen, and what do they tell us about the Federal Reserve?s monetary policy toolkit?
Chicago Fed Letter

Report
The Microstructure of China's Government Bond Market
Bai, Jennie; Horan, Casidhe; Fleming, Michael J. (2013-05-01)
Although China now has one of the largest government bond markets in the world, the market has received relatively little attention and analysis. We describe the history and structure of the market and assess its functioning. We find that trading in individual bonds was historically sparse but has increased markedly in recent years. We find also that certain announcements of macroeconomic news, such as China?s producer price index (PPI) and manufacturing purchasing managers? index (PMI), have significant effects on yields, even when such yields are measured at a daily level. Despite the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 622

Speech
Monetary policy in a low inflation and low unemployment economy: remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, May 21, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-05-21)
Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren explored the current economic environment, characterized by low unemployment and lower-than-target inflation ? which are somewhat opposing signals for monetary policymakers.
Speech , Paper 144

Journal Article
The Unequal Effect of Interest Rates by Race, Gender
Puig, Aina (2022-08-01)
Household spending typically falls as interest rates rise, but the responses vary by race and gender. Data show that households with mortgages headed by white women cut their spending on durable goods about a quarter percentage point in the three years following a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates. This is a much larger reduction than for households with mortgages headed by white men or Black men or women. The differences highlight the challenge of understanding how policy interest rate changes affect a diverse population.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 19 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall
Bauer, Michael D.; Rudebusch, Glenn D. (2021-10-20)
Climate change—including higher temperatures and more extreme weather—is already causing economic damage and is projected to have further long-lasting effects. To properly assess the potential future economic losses from climate change, they must be discounted to produce comparable values in today’s dollars. The discount rates required for this assessment are influenced by the long-run equilibrium real interest rate, which has declined notably since the 1990s. Accounting for a persistently lower real rate increases the present discounted future costs of climate change, which is relevant ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 28 , Pages 05

Briefing
Anticipated FOMC Policy, Inflation and Credibility
Wolman, Alexander L. (2022-09)
Following through on its September 2020 plan, the FOMC waited to raise interest rates until March 2022, when inflation was high and unemployment was below its perceived long-run level. However, by early fall 2021, markets were predicting a rate increase, and policymakers were signaling an increase in their Summary of Economic Projections. In contrast to the 1980s and 1990s, when the Fed fought inflation scares even as actual inflation trended down, long-term inflation expectations have been relatively stable even as actual inflation has risen far above target. This stability has likely been ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Volume 22 , Issue 37

Speech
Bullard Discusses the Fed Funds Rate and Inflation on CNBC
Bullard, James B. (2022-08-25)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard spoke about the timing of fed funds rate increases and getting inflation moving in the right direction. He spoke during a CNBC interview at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming.Bullard said he liked “front-loading,” or getting rate increases in earlier. His target is 3.75% to 4% by the end of the year, he reiterated.“We’ve got inflation right now. We’ve got a strong labor market right now,” Bullard said. “It seems like a good time to get to the right neighborhood for the (fed) funds rate.”Front-loading shows “you’re serious ...
Speech

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