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Working Paper
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations
Prescott, Brian; Sheng, Xuguang; Meyer, Brent (2020-09-04)
We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms reports significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-17

Working Paper
Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific
Mehrotra, Aaron; Auer, Raphael (2014-04-01)
Some observers argue that increased real integration has led to greater co-movement of prices internationally. We examine the evidence for cross-border price spillovers among economies participating in the pan-Asian cross-border production networks. Starting with country-level data, we find that both producer price and consumer price inflation rates move more closely together between those Asian economies that trade more with one another, ie that share a higher degree of trade intensity. Next, using a novel data set based on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), we examine the importance of ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 172

Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook
Williams, John C. (2019-09-04)
Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Speech , Paper 328

Working Paper
Trimmed-Mean Inflation Statistics: Just Hit the One in the Middle
Meyer, Brent; Venkatu, Guhan (2014-03-01)
This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception, asking whether there is a particular trimmed-mean measure that dominates the median consumer price index (CPI). Unlike previous research, we evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric trimmed means using a well known equality of prediction test. We find that there is a large swath of trimmed means that have statistically indistinguishable performance. Also, although the swath of statistically similar trims changes slightly over different sample periods, it always ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-3

Speech
Pandemic Ebbs and Flows: Economic Data, Inflation Concerns, and Policymaking
Rosengren, Eric S. (2021-05-05)
With a shock as large as the pandemic, policymakers need to be alert to potential changes to the economy. To date, inflation expectations and the underlying inflation rate look to be stable. It is important to keep in mind the difficulty that was experienced in achieving inflation of 2 percent in the United States and most of the developed world after the Great Financial Crisis. As a result, my perspective is that the emphasis on actual outcomes rather than forecasts of rising inflationary pressures when setting monetary policy appears justified. However, given the noise in the data, it will ...
Speech

Newsletter
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2018 Results and 2019 Forecasts
Strauss, William A.; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2019)
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium (EOS), the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace somewhat above average in 2019, with inflation ticking down and the unemployment rate remaining low.
Chicago Fed Letter

Why the Same Inflation Target May Not Fit All Countries
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2020-08-27)
The central banks of many advanced economies have adopted an inflation target at around 2%. But should they use the same target?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: A Look at the Reaction by Professional Forecasters
Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W.; Naggert, Kristoph (2021-04-06)
This Commentary examines the response of longer-run inflation expectations to the FOMC’s August 2020 announced switch to a flexible average inflation-targeting (FAIT) regime. The data indicate an upward shift in the lower end (below 2 percent) of the distribution of inflation expectations and a stronger anchoring of expectations around the 2 percent inflation objective following the announcement, evidence that is consistent with intended effects of the change in the monetary policy framework. To provide context, we also include a retrospective assessment of the response of inflation ...
Economic Commentary , Volume 2021 , Issue 09 , Pages 7

Working Paper
Small Price Responses to Large Demand Shocks
López-Salido, J. David; Gagnon, Etienne (2014-02-11)
We study the pricing response of U.S. supermarkets to large demand shocks triggered by labor conflicts, mass population relocation, and shopping sprees around major snowstorms and hurricanes. Our focus on demand shocks is novel in the empirical literature that uses large datasets of individual data to bridge micro price behavior and aggregate price dynamics. We find that large swings in demand have, at best, modest effects on the level of retail prices, consistent with flat short- to medium-term supply curves. This finding holds even when shocks are highly persistent and even though stores ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-18

Report
Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies
McCarthy, Jonathan (2000-09-01)
This paper examines the impact of exchange rates and import prices on the domestic producer price index and consumer price index in selected industrialized economies. The empirical model is a vector autoregression incorporating a distribution chain of pricing. When the model is estimated over the post-Bretton Woods era, impulse responses indicate that exchange rates have a modest effect on domestic price inflation while import prices have a stronger effect. Pass-through is larger in countries with a larger import share and more persistent exchange rates and import prices. Over 1996-98, these ...
Staff Reports , Paper 111

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