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Speech
Accommodative Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Safeguards
Evans, Charles L. (2014-02-04)
A speech delivered on February 4, 2014, at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, MI.
Speech , Paper 3

Journal Article
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
Higgins, Patrick C. (2021-09-09)
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 11 , Pages 20

Working Paper
Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolo, Giovanni; Song, Dongho (2023-03)
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with what is implied by the New Keynesian framework. We then discuss the reasons for which our results relying on a Trend-Cycle VAR differ from the findings of previous studies based on VAR analysis. We explain empirically and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-038

Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
Davis, J. Scott; Sagnanert, Pon (2023-08-08)
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2023-02-21)
Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock lead to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Revisiting the odd behavior of the Beveridge curve as unemployment stays low
Cheremukhin, Anton A. (2024-03-05)
At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Historical Disinflation Episodes: Which Falls First, Goods or Services?
Gascon, Charles S.; Martorana, Joseph (2024-04-17)
What does it take to bring inflation back down to target? Historically, goods inflation slows first, followed by a longer period in which services inflation slows.
Economic Synopses , Issue 9 , Pages 2 pages

The Relationship between Wage Growth and Inflation, One Recession Later
Sanchez, Juan M.; Wilkinson, Olivia (2022-02-25)
Periods of high inflation generally are periods of low real wage growth. In the aftermath of the pandemic recession, is that still the case?
On the Economy

Speech
Recent Inflation Developments and Challenges for Research and Monetary Policymaking : The 47th Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy, Insel Reichenau, Germany 5-12-2016
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-05-12)
It seems clear to me that if there is one topic that would benefit from better understanding the interplay of theory and policy, it is inflation. For a monetary policymaker, price stability is the Holy Grail ? price stability is the one thing that monetary policy can ensure over the longer run, and monetary policy is the only tool that can ensure price stability over the longer run. The benefits of price stability for the economy are clear.2 Stable prices mean businesses and households don?t have to spend time trying to protect the purchasing power of their money; they can make long-term ...
Speech , Paper 71

Working Paper
Drifting Inflation Targets and Monetary Stagflation
Khan, Shujaat; Knotek, Edward S. (2014-11-03)
This paper revisits the phenomenon of stagflation. Using a standard New Keynesian dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model, we show that stagflation from monetary policy alone is a very common occurrence when the economy is subject to both deviations from the policy rule and a drifting inflation target. Once the inflation target is fixed, the incidence of stagflation in the baseline model is essentially eliminated. In contrast with several other recent papers that have focused on the connection between monetary policy and stagflation, we show that while high uncertainty about monetary ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1426

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