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Speech
Perspectives on the U.S. Economic Outlook
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-12-17)
My view is that the economy is currently in a good place. Labor markets are strong, inflation is moving to target, and growth is likely to be somewhat above potential. Particularly given the recent cuts in the federal funds rate, and the fact that monetary actions take effect with some lag, I would say that this is a good time to patiently assess the economy. In the short run, I do not see a need for additional policy easing unless there is a material change to the forecast.
Speech

Working Paper
A Comparison of Fed "Tightening" Episodes since the 1980s
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2020-01-30)
Deciding to undertake a series of tightening actions present unique challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers. These challenges are both political and economic. Using a variety of economic and financial market metrics, this article examines how the economy and financial markets evolved in response to the five tightening episodes enacted by the FOMC since 1983. The primary aim is to compare the most-recent episode, from December 2015 to December 2018, with the previous four episodes. The findings in this article indicate that the current episode bears some resemblance to previous Fed ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-003

Journal Article
An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-23-02)
The authors present an overview of the New York Fed?s Survey of Consumer Expectations, a monthly online survey of a rotating panel of household heads. The survey collects timely information on respondents? expectations and decisions on a broad variety of topics, including inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. It has three main goals: (1) measuring consumer expectations at a high frequency, (2) understanding how these expectations are formed, and (3) investigating the link between expectations and behavior. The authors discuss the origins of the survey, the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 23-2 , Pages 51-72

Discussion Paper
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2015-07-13)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) turned two years old in June. In this post, we review some of the key findings from the first two years of the survey’s history, highlighting the most noteworthy trends revealed in the data.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150713a

Working Paper
Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison
Koenig, Evan F.; Dolmas, Jim (2019-02-25)
Trimmed-mean Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation does not clearly dominate ex-food-and-energy PCE inflation in real-time forecasting of headline PCE inflation. However, trimmed-mean inflation is the superior communications and policy tool because it is a less-biased real-time estimator of headline inflation and because it more successfully filters out headline inflation?s transitory variation, leaving only cyclical and trend components.
Working Papers , Paper 1903

Working Paper
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations
Prescott, Brian; Sheng, Xuguang; Meyer, Brent (2020-09-04)
We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms reports significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-17

Newsletter
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2018 Results and 2019 Forecasts
Strauss, William A.; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/ (2019)
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium (EOS), the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace somewhat above average in 2019, with inflation ticking down and the unemployment rate remaining low.
Chicago Fed Letter

Journal Article
The Monetarist-Keynesian Debate and the Phillips Curve: Lessons from the Great Inflation
Hetzel, Robert L. (2013-04)
Since the early 1950s, debate between economists of the Cowles Commission and Milton Friedman macroeconomics has developed along two parallel but integrally interconnected tracks. The Cowles Commission track involves development of a model of the economy organized around a system of stochastic difference equations with research efforts directed toward providing microeconomic foundations for the individual equations. The Friedman track involves using changes over time in the systematic character of monetary policy and departures from a given policy as surrogates for controlled experiments in ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 2Q , Pages 83-116

Working Paper
Small Price Responses to Large Demand Shocks
López-Salido, J. David; Gagnon, Etienne (2014-02-11)
We study the pricing response of U.S. supermarkets to large demand shocks triggered by labor conflicts, mass population relocation, and shopping sprees around major snowstorms and hurricanes. Our focus on demand shocks is novel in the empirical literature that uses large datasets of individual data to bridge micro price behavior and aggregate price dynamics. We find that large swings in demand have, at best, modest effects on the level of retail prices, consistent with flat short- to medium-term supply curves. This finding holds even when shocks are highly persistent and even though stores ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-18

Working Paper
The Value of Constraints on Discretionary Government Policy
Martin, Fernando M. (2016-02-27)
This paper investigates how institutional constraints discipline the behavior of discretionary governments subject to an expenditure bias. The focus is on constraints implemented in actual economies: monetary policy targets, limits on the deficit and debt ceilings. For a variety of aggregate shocks considered, the best policy is to impose a minimum primary surplus of about half a percent of output. Most welfare gains from constraining government behavior during normal times, which to a large extent is sufficient to discipline policy in adverse times. Monetary policy targets are not generally ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-19

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