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Journal Article
Black–White Differences in Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the U.S.

In recent decades, blacks have experienced substantially less upward mobility and substantially more downward mobility from one generation to the next than whites. These results are shown to be highly robust to a variety of measurement issues. The author examines rates of intergenerational mobility by race and asks whether such racial differences in the U.S. are likely to be eliminated and, if so, how long it might take.
Economic Perspectives , Issue Q I

Discussion Paper
(Unmet) Credit Demand of American Households

One of the direct effects of the 2008 financial crisis on U.S. households was a sharp tightening of credit. Households that had previously been able to borrow relatively freely through credit cards, home equity loans, or personal loans suddenly found those lines closed off—just when they needed them the most. In recent months, aggregate statistics such as the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit series and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey have shown a gradual improvement in consumer credit. The former series is an indicator of interaction of credit supply and demand, while the latter ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131106

A Dollar’s Worth: Inflation Is Real

Understanding the reality of inflation can help consumers make decisions in personal finance. Learn more about inflation, how it’s measured, and how the inflation rate is calculated in the December 2021 issue of Page One Economics: Focus on Finance.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Working Paper
The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession

People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequateincome. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion thatfollowed the Great Recession of 2007-09, using data from the monthly Current PopulationSurvey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansionbolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and in particular their relative labor marketengagement. We also find that applications and awards for federal disability benefits fell duringthe expansion. On balance, our results suggest ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2021-05

Journal Article
Market Failure and Community Economic Development in the US

This article explores the "political economy of community development" in the United States, with historical context on market failures. The authors, for the purposes of this article, also explore lending patterns in the Seventh Federal Reserve District.
Profitwise , Issue 1 , Pages 1-10

Discussion Paper
What Is behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving during the Pandemic?

Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite widespread declines in wages and other private income streams. This post highlights the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom, through stepped-up social benefits and other income support measures. Indeed, in the United States, Japan, and Canada, government assistance has pushed household income above its pre-pandemic trajectory. We argue that the larger scale of government assistance in these countries helps explain why saving in these countries has risen more ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210414

Error correction mechanisms and short-run expectations

Reflecting the nature of economic decisions, the error correction mechanism (ECM) in the error-correction representation of a system of co-integrated variables may arise from forward-looking behavior. In such a case, the estimated ECM coefficients may misleadingly appear to be insignificant or to have the opposite-than-expected sign if the variables in the error-correction representation do not adequately capture short-run expectations. This paper explores the nature of this problem with a theoretical model for consumption and demonstrates how severe the problem can be with U.S. data. Because ...
Staff Reports , Paper 10

The Effect of Divorce on Workers’ Incomes

An analysis of census data reveals that workers who experienced a divorce in the past 12 months typically earned less than those who didn’t.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Racial and Income Gaps in Consumer Spending following COVID-19

This post is the first in a two-part series that seeks to understand whether consumer spending patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic evolved differentially across counties by race and income. As the pandemic hit and social distancing restrictions were put into place in March 2020, consumer spending plummeted. Subsequently, as social distancing restrictions began to be relaxed later in spring 2020, consumer spending started to rebound. We find that higher-income counties had a considerably steeper decline and a shallower recovery than low-income counties did. The differences by race were also ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210513a

Journal Article
Workers' Shrinking Share of the Pie

Features: {{p}} Economists have advanced a wide variety of explanations for why workers' share of overall income has been going down
Econ Focus , Issue 2Q-3Q , Pages 14-17


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