Working Paper
Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy
Guler, Bulent; Michaud, Amanda M. (2024-10-15)
We argue that transitional dynamics play a critical role in evaluating the effects of punitive incarceration reform on crime, inequality, and labor markets. Individuals’ past choices regarding crime and employment under previous policies have persistent consequences that limit their responsiveness to policy changes. We provide novel cohort evidence supporting this mechanism. A quantitative model of this theory, calibrated using restricted administrative data, predicts nuanced dynamics of crime and incarceration that are distinct across property and violent crime and similar to the U.S. ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 101

Working Paper
Online Appendix: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy
Guler, Bulent; Michaud, Amanda M. (2024-10-15)
This online appendix accompanies Institute Working Paper 101: Dynamics of Deterrence: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Punitive Justice Policy.
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 102

Discussion Paper
Second-Chance Hiring: Fifth District Efforts to Improve Post-Incarceration Outcomes
Ullrich, Laura Dawson (2022-07-29)
In the current economy, where job postings significantly exceed the number of people actively seeking employment, previously incarcerated individuals represent an important source of labor that both states and institutions are increasingly interested in engaging. Successfully implementing second-chance hiring initiatives, in which companies hire individuals with criminal records, can help improve outcomes for previously incarcerated individuals, the companies they work for, and their communities.
Regional Matters

Working Paper
Incarceration, Earnings, and Race
Gordon, Grey; Jones, John Bailey; Neelakantan, Urvi; Athreya, Kartik B. (2021-07-02)
Working Paper , Paper 21-11`