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Keywords:housing bubble OR Housing bubble OR Housing Bubble 

Working Paper
The great housing boom of China

China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income in the past decade despite (1) a phenomenal rate of return to capital and (2) an alarmingly high vacancy rate. This paper interprets such a prolonged paradoxical housing boom as a rational bubble that emerges naturally from China's large-scale economic transition, featuring an exceptionally high rate of return to capital driven by massive resource reallocation. Because such primarily resource-reallocation-driven high capital returns are not sustainable in the long run, expectations of high future demand for ...
FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper , Paper 2015-3

Journal Article
Smart money or dumb money: investors' role in the housing bubble

To explain the historic housing boom and bust, most analysis has identified easy credit in the form of low interest rates, subprime mortgages, and relaxed qualifications for borrowers. But as Wenli Li explains, recent research suggests an additional factor: real estate speculation.
Business Review , Issue Q1 , Pages 21-26

Working Paper
The great housing boom of China

China?s housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China?s housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-22

Journal Article
The government-sponsored enterprises: past and future

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's role in the housing bubble and financial crisis remains controversial. Did they precipitate or at least worsen the crisis? How do their benefits compare against their losses? Ronel Elul traces their evolution and actions and outlines reform proposals.
Business Review , Issue Q1 , Pages 11-20

Discussion Paper
Stimulus, Savings, and Inflation: The Top Five Liberty Street Economics Posts of 2021

New York Fed researchers tackled a wide array of topics on Liberty Street Economics (LSE) over the past year, with the myriad effects of the pandemic—on supply chains, the banking system, and inequality, for example—remaining a major area of focus. Judging by the list below, LSE readers were particularly interested in understanding what comes next: the most-viewed posts of the year analyze households’ use of stimulus payments, the implications of lockdown-period savings, the risk of a new housing bubble, the compression of the breakeven inflation curve, and the potential roles that ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20211222

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