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Working Paper
Fracking and Mortgage Default
Cunningham, Chris; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Shen, Yannan (2017-03-01)
This paper ?nds that increased hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," along the Marcellus Formation in Pennsylvania had a signi?cant, negative effect on mortgage credit risk. Controlling for potential endogeneity bias by utilizing the underlying geologic properties of the land as instrumental variables for fracking activity, we ?nd that mortgages originated before the 2007 boom in shale gas, were, post-boom, signi?cantly less likely to default in areas with greater drilling activity. The weight of evidence suggests that the greatest bene?t from fracking came from strengthening the labor ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2017-4

Working Paper
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Frame, W. Scott; Conklin, James; Liu, Haoyang (2018-08-01)
An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002?06 U.S. house price boom. Contrary to this belief, we show that the house price and subprime booms occurred in different places. Counties with the largest home price appreciation between 2002 and 2006 had the largest declines in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers. We also document that the expansion in speculative mortgage products and underwriting fraud was not concentrated among subprime borrowers.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-10

Working Paper
House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data
Gorea, Denis; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy; Kudlyak, Marianna (2022-08-05)
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. We exploit information contained in listings for the residential properties for sale in the United States between 2001 and 2019 from the CoreLogic Multiple Listing Service Dataset. Using high-frequency measures of monetary policy shocks, we document that a one standard-deviation contractionary monetary policy surprise lowers housing list prices by 0.2–0.3 percent within two weeks—a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-16

Report
Local Zoning Laws and the Supply of Multifamily Housing in Greater Boston
Sood, Aradhya; Chiumenti, Nicholas (2022-10-01)
Housing affordability is a significant issue in many U.S. metropolitan areas, including Greater Boston. Affordability has always been a major challenge for low-income renters; however, even middle-income families now face considerable affordability hurdles, particularly in metro areas with strong labor markets. Where people live has important implications for their health, schooling, and economic mobility. Researchers and policymakers have devoted attention to the role of land-use practices, such as regulating residential zoning, in creating housing affordability problems, particularly in the ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 22-1

Working Paper
Earthquakes and House Prices: Evidence from Oklahoma
Whitaker, Stephan; Wetherell, Daniel; Cheung, Ron (2016-12-21)
This paper examines the impact of earthquakes on residential property values using sales data from Oklahoma from 2006 to 2014. Before 2010, Oklahoma had only a couple of earthquakes per year that were strong enough to be felt by residents. Since 2010, seismic activity has increased, bring potentially damaging quakes several times each year and perceptible quakes every few days. Using hedonic models, we estimate that prices decline by 3 to 4 percent after a home has experienced a moderate earthquake measuring 4 or 5 on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale. Prices can decline up to 9.8 percent ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1631

Working Paper
Villains or Scapegoats? The Role of Subprime Borrowers in Driving the U.S. Housing Boom
Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Frame, W. Scott; Conklin, James; Liu, Haoyang (2020-05-19)
An expansion in mortgage credit to subprime borrowers is widely believed to have been a principal driver of the 2002–2006 U.S. house price boom. By contrast, this paper documents a robust, negative correlation between the growth in the share of purchase mortgages to subprime borrowers and house price appreciation at the county-level during this time. Using two different instrumental variables approaches, we also establish causal evidence that house price appreciation lowered the share of purchase loans to subprime borrowers. Further analysis using micro-level credit bureau data shows that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013

Working Paper
Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles
Miao, Jianjun; Wang, Pengfei; Zha, Tao (2014-08-01)
n the U.S. economy during the past 25 years, house prices exhibit fluctuations considerably larger than house rents, and these large fluctuations tend to move together with business cycles. We build a simple theoretical model to characterize these observations by showing the tight connection between price-rent fluctuation and the liquidity constraint faced by productive firms. After developing economic intuition for this result, we estimate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the empirical importance of the role the price-rent fluctuation plays in the business cycle. ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-15

Journal Article
Comparing Measures of Housing Inflation
Bengali, Leila (2022-10-17)
Measuring the price of shelter for homeowners is difficult, even when housing markets are stable. A new measure of shelter price inflation uses mortgage, tax, and insurance payments, rather than the implied rental value of homes used in the consumer price index (CPI). The payments method suggests year-over-year shelter price inflation rose 4.3% nationally in July, compared with the CPI’s 5.8% estimate. Conditions in rental markets likely explain this difference. Comparing the varying results nationally and across regions highlights the challenge of accurately measuring the shelter inflation ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 29 , Pages 6

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