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Speech
The Economic Recovery: Are We There Yet?
Williams, John C. (2021-05-03)
Remarks at Women in Housing and Finance 2021 Annual Symposium (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy
Kim, Hee Soo; Matthes, Christian; Phan, Toan (2011-08-11)
Working Paper , Paper 21-14

Working Paper
Barriers to Creative Destruction: Large Firms and Nonproductive Strategies
Baslandze, Salomé (2021-09-30)
This working paper reviews recent empirical evidence on large firms and nonproductivestrategies that hinder creative destruction and reallocation. The focus is on three types ofnonproductive strategies: political connections, nonproductive patenting, and anticompetitiveacquisitions. Across different contexts using granular micro data sets, we overwhelmingly see that asfirms gain market share, they increasingly rely on nonproductive strategies but reduce theirproductive, innovation-based strategies. I also discuss theoretical channels, aggregate implications,and potentials for some policies.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2021-23

Discussion Paper
Measuring Price Inflation and Growth in Economic Well-Being with Income-Dependent Preferences
Lashkari, Danial (2024-01-08)
How can we accurately measure changes in living standards over time in the presence of price inflation? In this post, I discuss a novel and simple methodology that uses the cross-sectional relationship between income and household-level inflation to construct accurate measures of changes in living standards that account for the dependence of consumption preferences on income. Applying this method to data from the U.S. suggests potentially substantial mismeasurements in our available proxies of average growth in consumer welfare in the U.S.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240108

Working Paper
The Stable Transformation Path
Buera, Francisco J.; Mestieri, Martí; O'Connor, Daniel G.; Kaboski, Joseph P. (2020-10-23)
Standard dynamic models of structural transformation, without knife-edge and counterfactual parameter values, preclude balanced growth path (BGP) analysis. This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium concept for a more general class of models | an alternative to a BGP, which we coin a Stable Transformation Path (STraP). The STraP characterizes the medium-term dynamics of the economy in a turnpike sense; it is the path toward which the economy (quickly) converges from an arbitrary initial capital stock. Calibrated simulations demonstrate that the relaxed parameter values that the STraP allows ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-23

Working Paper
Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment
Gibson, Matthew; Fried, Stephie; Casey, Gregory (2022-10-04)
Existing climate-economy models use aggregate damage functions to model the effects of climate change. This approach assumes climate change has equal impacts on the productivity of firms that produce consumption and investment goods or services. We show the split between damage to consumption and investment productivity matters for the dynamic consequences of climate change. Drawing on the structural transformation literature, we develop a framework that incorporates heterogeneous climate damages. When investment is more vulnerable to climate, we find short-run consumption losses will be ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-21

Speech
Monetary Policy: Progress Is Not Victory
Daly, Mary C. (2023-10-05)
Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, The Economic Club of New York, New York, NY, October 5, 2023, 12 PM EDT
Speech

Working Paper
Neoclassical Inequality
Carroll, Daniel R.; Young, Eric R. (2017-09-06)
In a model with a worker-capitalist dichotomy, we show that the relationship between inequality (measured as a ratio of incomes for the two types) and growth is complicated; zero growth generally lowers inequality, except under extreme parameterizations. In particular, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in production needs to be considerably greater than 1 in order for income inequality be higher with zero growth. If this condition is not met, factor prices adjust strongly causing the fall in the return to capital (the rise in wages) to reduce income inequality. Our ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-32R2

Working Paper
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Mertens, Karel (2023-05-18)
We estimate the causal impact of government-funded R&D on business-sector productivity growth. Identification is based on a novel narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in appropriations for R&D funded by five major federal agencies. Using long-horizon local projections and the narrative measures, we find that an increase in appropriations for nondefense R&D leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity, and higher productivity in the long run. We structurally estimate the production function elasticity of nondefense government R&D capital using the SP-IV ...
Working Papers , Paper 2305

Discussion Paper
Can China Catch Up with Greece?
Clark, Hunter L.; Higgins, Matthew (2023-10-19)
China’s leader Xi Jinping recently laid out the goal of reaching the per capita income of “a mid-level developed country by 2035.” Is this goal likely to be achieved? Not in our view. Continued rapid growth faces mounting headwinds from population aging and from diminishing returns to China’s investment-centered growth model. Additional impediments to growth appear to be building, including a turn toward increased state management of the economy, the crystallization of legacy credit issues in real estate and other sectors, and limits on access to key foreign technologies. Even ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231019

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