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Working Paper
Trade, Relative Prices, and the Canadian Great Depression
MacGee, James; Amaral, Pedro S. (2016-02-12)
Canadian GNP per capita fell by roughly a third between 1928 and 1933. Although the decline and the slow recovery of GNP resemble the American Great Depression, trade was more important in Canada, as exports and imports each accounted for roughly a quarter of Canadian GNP in 1928. The fall in the trade share of GNP of roughly 30 percent between 1928 and 1933 was accompanied by a decline of over 20 percent in the relative prices of exports and imports relative to nontraded goods. We develop a three-sector small open economy model, where wages in the nontraded and import competing sectors ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1606

Working Paper
Interbank Connections, Contagion and Bank Distress in the Great Depression
Wheelock, David C.; Jaremski, Matthew; Calomiris, Charles W. (2019-01-01)
Liquidity shocks transmitted through interbank connections contributed to bank distress during the Great Depression. New data on interbank connections reveal that banks were much more likely to close when their correspondents closed. Further, after the Federal Reserve was established, banks? management of cash and capital buffers was less responsive to network risk, suggesting that banks expected the Fed to reduce network risk. Because the Fed?s presence removed the incentives for the most systemically important banks to maintain capital and cash buffers that had protected against liquidity ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-001

Working Paper
Sovereign Default in the US
Ergungor, O. Emre (2016-04-06)
In the absence of a judicial mechanism to reduce the debt burden of a sovereign member of our Union, the resolution process can be quick but perhaps too indifferent to the health, safety, and welfare of the affected residents. In this paper, I use evidence from the Arkansas state archives to provide a description of the events surrounding the default of the state in 1933. I examine the evolution of the negotiations, the outcomes, and the role of fiscal policy.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1609

Working Paper
The Founding of the Federal Reserve, the Great Depression and the Evolution of the U.S. Interbank Network
Wheelock, David C.; Jaremski, Matthew (2019-01-17)
Financial network structure is an important determinant of systemic risk. This paper examines how the U.S. interbank network evolved over a long and important period that included two key events: the founding of the Federal Reserve and the Great Depression. Banks established connections to correspondents that joined the Federal Reserve in cities with Fed offices, initially reducing overall network concentration. The network became even more focused on Fed cities during the Depression, as survival rates were higher for banks with more existing connections to Fed cities, and as survivors ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-2

Working Paper
Recovery of 1933
Jacobson, Margaret M.; Leeper, Eric M.; Preston, Bruce (2024-02-28)
When Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard in April 1933, he converted government debt from a tax-backed claim to gold to a claim to dollars, opening the door to unbacked fiscal expansion. Roosevelt followed a state-contingent fiscal rule that ran nominal-debt-financed primary deficits until the price level rose and economic activity recovered. Theory suggests that government spending multipliers can be substantially larger when fiscal expansions are unbacked than when they are tax-backed. VAR estimates using data on "emergency" unbacked spending and "ordinary" backed spending confirm this ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-032r1

Journal Article
Ben Bernanke: Solving a Crisis, Changing the Fed
Daly, Mary C. (2025-01-13)
Ben Bernanke’s contributions to economic thinking have been vast, from his extensive study of the Great Depression to groundbreaking research on the interplay of finance and the macroeconomy and the usefulness of unconventional monetary policy tools. His research helped guide his tenure as Federal Reserve Chair and his role in putting the U.S. economy on a path to the longest expansion in its history. Through that role, he also built a better and more transparent Fed for the future. The following remarks are adapted from a presentation by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2025 , Issue 02 , Pages 7

How Does the Pandemic Recession Stack Up against the Great Depression?
Wheelock, David C. (2020-10-19)
The 2020 recession may turn out to be the sharpest, but also the shortest, in modern times and perhaps of all time in the U.S.
On the Economy

Speech
Modern recipes for financial crises
McAndrews, James J. (2015-12-04)
Remarks at the University of Iowa, December 4, 2015.
Speech , Paper 190

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