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Keywords:global financial cycle OR Global financial cycle 

Working Paper
The Effect of the China Connect

We document the effect on Chinese firms of the Shanghai (Shenzhen)-Hong Kong Stock Connect. The Connect was an important capital account liberalization introduced in the mid-2010s. It created a channel for cross-border equity investments into a selected set of Chinese stocks while China's overall capital controls policy remained in place. Using a difference-in-difference approach, and with careful attention to sample selection issues, we find that mainland Chinese firm-level investment is negatively affected by contractionary U.S. monetary policy shocks and that firms in the Connect are more ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-087

Working Paper
The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows During the COVID-19 Pandemic

We estimate the heterogeneous effect of the global financial cycle on exchange rates and cross-border capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic, using weekly exchange rate and portfolio flow data for a panel of 48 advanced and emerging market economies. We begin by estimating the global financial cycle at a weekly frequency with data through 2021 and observe the two standard deviation fall in our global financial cycle index over a period of four weeks in March 2020. We then estimate the country-specific sensitivities of exchange rates and capital flows to fluctuations in the global ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 416

Working Paper
How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets

This paper examines how the growth of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has affected the sensitivity of international capital flows to global financial conditions. Using data on individual emerging market funds worldwide, we employ a novel identification strategy that controls for unobservable time-varying economic conditions at the investment destination. We find that the sensitivity of flows to global financial conditions for equity (bond) ETFs is 2.5 (2.25) times higher than for equity (bond) mutual funds. We then show that our findings have macroeconomic implications. In countries where ETFs ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1268

Report
International Capital Flow Pressures and Global Factors

The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate adjustments. The sensitivity of capital flow pressures to risk sentiment, including for so-called safe-haven currencies, evolves over time, varies significantly across countries, and differs between normal times and extreme stress events. Across countries, risk sensitivities and safe-haven status are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1051

Working Paper
To What Degree and through Which Channel Do Central Banks Other Than the Federal Reserve Cause Spillovers?

Spillovers play a crucial role in driving monetary policy around the world. The literature focuses predominantly on spillovers from the Federal Reserve. Less attention has been paid to spillovers from other central banks. I measure the degree to which 20 central banks cause spillovers. I show that central banks in medium- to high-income countries cause spillovers to medium- to long-term interest rates in similar countries through a bond-pricing channel. These effects are narrower than spillovers from the Federal Reserve, which also affect emerging markets, short-term interest rates, and other ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-3

Working Paper
Real Exchange Rates and the Global Financial Cycle

We study the effect of fluctuations in the global financial cycle on real exchange rates (RER). On average, a downturn in the global financial cycle leads to RER depreciation relative to the U.S. dollar. However, there is considerable heterogeneity in the RER responses among advanced, emerging and developing economies; between net creditor and net debtor countries; and over time. When decomposing RER changes into components reflecting the nominal exchange rates and inflation differentials, we again uncover substantial heterogeneity across countries and over time. RER adjustments in advanced ...
Working Papers , Paper 2416

Working Paper
The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows During the COVID-19 Pandemic

We estimate the heterogeneous effect of the global financial cycle on exchange rates and cross-border capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic, using weekly exchange rate and portfolio flow data for a panel of 59 advanced and emerging market economies. We begin by estimating a global financial cycle (GFC) index at the weekly frequency with data through the end of 2021, and observe an outsized decline in the index over a period of just four weeks during February and March 2020. We then estimate the country-specific sensitivities of exchange rates and capital flows to fluctuations in the GFC. ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 416

Report
The Global Credit Cycle

Do global credit conditions affect local credit and business cycles? Using a large cross-section of equity and corporate bond market returns around the world, we construct a novel global credit factor and a global risk factor that jointly price the international equity and bond cross-section. We uncover a global credit cycle in risky asset returns, which is distinct from the global risk cycle. We document that the global credit cycle in asset returns translates into a global credit cycle in credit quantities, with a tightening in global credit conditions predicting extreme capital flow ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1094

Working Paper
A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle

We develop a theory to account for changes in net capital flows of safe and risky assets over the global financial cycle. We show empirically that countries that have a net debt of safe assets experience a rise in net outflows of safe assets (reduced accumulation of safe debt) during a downturn in the global financial cycle. This is accomplished through a rise in total net outflows and a drop in net outflows of risky assets. We develop a multi-country portfolio choice model that can account for these facts. The theory relies on cross-country heterogeneity in the share of an investor's ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 420

Report
The international transmission of monetary policy

This paper presents the novel results from an internationally coordinated project by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) on the cross-border transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy through banks. Teams from seventeen countries use confidential micro-banking data for the years 2000 through 2015 to explore the international transmission of monetary policies of the United States, the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Two other studies use international data with different degrees of granularity. International spillovers into lending to the private ...
Staff Reports , Paper 845

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