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Working Paper
The Effects of the Federal Reserve Chair’s Testimony on Interest Rates and Stock Prices
Gordon, Matthew V.; Lunsford, Kurt Graden (2023-11-13)
We study how congressional testimony about monetary policy by the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System affects interest rates and stock prices. First, we study testimony associated with the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Reports (MPRs) to Congress. Testimony for a particular MPR is usually given on two days, one day for each chamber of Congress. We separately study the first day and second day of MPR testimony. We also study testimonies not associated with MPRs but that are still related to monetary policy. We find that first-day MPR testimonies cause the largest ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-26

Speech
Comments on “A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet”: remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City
Dudley, William (2018-02-23)
Remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.
Speech , Paper 275

Working Paper
The final countdown: the effect of monetary policy during \"Wait-for-It\" and reversal periods
Ozdagli, Ali K. (2015-09-01)
After a long period of loose monetary policy triggered by the Great Recession, some central banks are signaling that they will raise their policy rates soon. Previous research, for example, Bernanke and Kuttner (2005) and Ozdagli (2014), has shown that asset prices react more strongly to monetary policy target surprises on the dates of such a policy reversal announcement. However, we know very little about the channels that generate these effects and whether the cross-sectional differences among firms and sectors play a significant role in transmitting a reversal decision to the economy, a ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-15

Journal Article
Financial Market Conditions during Monetary Tightening
Kwan, Simon H.; Liu, Louis (2022-02-06)
The current round of federal funds rate increases is expected to reverse a historically large gap between the real funds rate and the neutral rate at the beginning of the tightening cycle. Financial markets have reacted faster and more strongly than in past monetary tightening cycles, in part because of this large gap and the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance. Historical experiences suggest financial conditions could tighten even more given the size of the gap.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 03 , Pages 6

Speech
Implementing monetary policy with the balance sheet: keynote remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Potter, Simon M. (2017-11-06)
Keynote Remarks for ECB Workshop: Money Markets, Monetary Policy Implementation, and Central Bank Balance Sheets, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Speech , Paper 259

Speech
Moving toward 'normal' U.S. monetary policy: remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia
Williams, John C. (2018-10-10)
Remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia.
Speech , Paper 296

Working Paper
How Optimal Was U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound?
Bundick, Brent; Smith, Andrew Lee; Hotz, Logan (2023-12-01)
The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates can generate substantial downward pressure on longer-term inflation expectations. We use data on interest rate options and inflation compensation to estimate how the probability that the zero lower bound will bind in the future has weighed on inflation expectations in the United States. Over the 2008–19 period, we estimate that the zero lower bound imparted only a small drag on longer-term inflation expectations of around 10 basis points. We argue that the Federal Reserve's forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases largely offset the ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 23-14

Working Paper
Delphic and Odyssean Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Euro Area
Ferroni, Filippo; Andrade, Philippe (2018-07-26)
We use financial intraday data to identify monetary policy surprises in the euro area. We find that monetary policy statements and press conferences after European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meetings convey information that moves the yield curve far out. Moreover, the nature of the information revealed in a narrow window around these statements and press conferences evolved over time. Until 2013, unexpected variations in future interest rates were positively correlated with the changes in market-based measure of inflation expectations consistent with news on future macroeconomic ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-12

Report
An interest rate rule to uniquely implement the optimal equilibrium in a liquidity trap
Zabai, Anna; Duarte, Fernando M. (2015-10-01)
We propose a new interest rate rule that implements the optimal equilibrium and eliminates all indeterminacy in a canonical New Keynesian model in which the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates (ZLB) is binding. The rule commits to zero nominal interest rates for a length of time that increases in proportion to how much past inflation has deviated?either upward or downward?from its optimal level. Once outside the ZLB, interest rates follow a standard Taylor rule. Following the Taylor principle outside the ZLB is neither necessary nor sufficient to ensure uniqueness of equilibria. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 745

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