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Working Paper
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2021-02)
I study the effects of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak in the United States and subsequent fiscal policy response in a nonlinear DSGE model. The pandemic is a shock to the utility of contact-intensive services that propagates to other sectors via general equilibrium, triggering a deep recession. I use a calibrated version of the model that matches the path of the US unemployment rate in 2020 to analyze different types of fiscal policies. I find that the pandemic shock changes the ranking of policy multipliers. Unemployment benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-006

Speech
The U. S. economy: an optimistic outlook, but with some important risks: remarks at the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast, Boston, Massachusetts, April 13, 2018
Rosengren, Eric S. (2018-04-13)
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that his own economic forecast and the forecasts of his colleagues on the Fed's policy committee are "quite positive" ? citing fairly strong economic growth, job creation, falling unemployment, and inflation rising close to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. But Rosengren detailed both short-run and longer-run risks to that positive outlook.
Speech , Paper 131

Working Paper
The 2009 recovery act: stimulus at the extensive and intensive labor margins
Mehkari, M. Saif; Dupor, Bill (2014-08-11)
This paper studies the effect of government stimulus spending on a novel aspect of the labor market: the differential impact of spending on the total wage bill versus employment. We analyze the 2009 Recovery Act via instrumental variables using a new instrument, the spending done by federal agencies that were not instructed to target funds towards harder hit regions. We find a moderate positive effect on jobs created/saved (i.e., "the extensive margin") and also a significant increase in wage payments to workers whose job status was safe without Recovery Act funds (i.e., "the intensive ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-23

Working Paper
Fiscal Stimulus Under Average Inflation Targeting
Liu, Zheng; Miao, Jianjun; Su, Dongling (2022-11-09)
The stimulus effects of expansionary fiscal policy under average inflation targeting (AIT) depends on both monetary and fiscal policy regimes. AIT features an inflation makeup under the monetary regime, but not under the fiscal regime. In normal times, AIT amplifies the short-run fiscal multipliers under both regimes while mitigating the cumulative multiplies due to intertemporal substitution. In a zero-lower-bound (ZLB) period, AIT reduces fiscal multipliers under a monetary regime by shortening the duration of the ZLB through expected inflation makeup. Under the fiscal regime, AIT has a ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-22

Working Paper
Schools and Stimulus
Mehkari, M. Saif; Dupor, Bill (2015-03-11)
This paper analyzes the impact of the education funding component of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (the Recovery Act) on public school districts. We use cross- Sectional differences in district-level Recovery Act funding to investigate the program's impact on staffing, expenditures and debt accumulation. To achieve identification, we use exogenous variation across districts in the allocations of Recovery Act funds for special needs students. We estimate that $1 million of grants to a district had the following effects: expenditures increased by $570 thousand, district ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-4

Newsletter
Sin Taxes: The Sobering Fiscal Reality
Wetmore, Sarah; Mattoon, Richard H. (2015)
On April 2, 2015, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Civic Federation held a forum to examine the use and efficacy of so-called sin taxes (e.g., taxes on alcohol, tobacco and gambling) levied by state and local governments.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero
Waki, Yuichiro; Braun, R. Anton; Korber, Lena Mareen (2012)
Does fiscal policy have large and qualitatively different effects on the economy when the nominal interest rate is zero? An emerging consensus in the New Keynesian (NK) literature is that the answer to this question is yes. Evidence presented here suggests that the NK model's implications for fiscal policy at the zero bound may not be all that different from its implications for policy away from it. For a range of empirically relevant parameterizations, employment increases when the labor tax rate is cut and the government purchase multiplier is less than 1.05.
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2012-05

Working Paper
Fuel subsidies, the oil market and the world economy
Plante, Michael D.; Balke, Nathan S.; Yücel, Mine K. (2014-08-01)
This paper studies the e ffects of oil producing countries' fuel subsidies on the oil market and the world economy. We identify 24 oil producing countries with fuel subsidies where retail fuel prices are about 34 percent of the world price. We construct a two-country model where one country represents the oil-exporting subsidizers and the second the oil-importing bloc, and calibrate the model to match recent data. We find that the removal of subsidies would reduce the world price of oil by six percent. The removal of subsidies is unambiguously welfare enhancing for the oil-importing ...
Working Papers , Paper 1407

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M. (2022-08-31)
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American countries temporarily suspended rules limiting debt, fiscal and monetary policies. Despite this increase in flexibility, the crisis implied a substantial deterioration of macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP declined by 9.5%) and high welfare costs (which we estimate as equivalent to a 13% one-time reduction in non-tradable consumption). This paper studies a sovereign default model with fiscal and monetary policies to assess the policy response and evaluate the gains from flexibility in times of severe distress.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Speech
Monetary, fiscal, and financial stability policy tools: are we equipped for the next recession?: remarks at the 2018 Economics Department Grossman Lecture, Colby College, Waterville, Maine, April 18, 2018
Rosengren, Eric S. (2018-04-18)
The focus of the talk was on tools that are available to policymakers once a significant adverse financial shock occurs.
Speech , Paper 132

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