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Speech
The Economy’s Outlook, Challenges, and Way Forward
Rosengren, Eric S. (2020-09-30)
President Rosengren’s comments were delivered at the Massachusetts Bankers Association’s New England Conference, and were based on a speech he delivered on September 23, 2020 to the Boston Economic Club.
Speech

Report
Labor Market Policies during an Epidemic
Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2020-10-01)
We study the positive and normative implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fallout from containment measures during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies ...
Staff Reports , Paper 943

Blog
How Should the Government Spend the Fiscal Budget during the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Birinci, Serdar; Karahan, Fatih; Mercan, Yusuf; See, Kurt (2020-08-20)
A mix of expanded unemployment insurance benefits and payroll subsidies to employers may be more effective in speeding up the recovery than implementing just one of those policies.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Fiscal Expansions in the Era of Low Real Interest Rates
Garga, Vaishali (2020-04-01)
Low natural real interest rates limit the power of monetary policy to revive the economy due to the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. Fiscal stabilization via higher government debt is frequently recommended as a policy to raise the natural real interest rate. This paper builds a non-Ricardian framework to study the tradeoffs associated with a debt-financed fiscal expansion and show that even in a low real interest rate environment, higher debt doesn’t necessarily raise the real interest rate. The effect of the expansion is non-monotonic: Increasing debt raises the ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-11

Working Paper
The Evolution of Macro Models at the Federal Reserve Board
Brayton, Flint; Levin, Andrew T.; Tryon, Ralph W.; Williams, John C.
Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used at the Federal Reserve Board for nearly thirty years. After briefly reviewing the first generation of Fed models, which were based on the IS/LM/Phillips curve paradigm, the paper describes the structure and properties of a new set of models. The new models are more explicit in their treatment of expectations formation and household and firm intertemporal decisionmaking. The incorporation of more rigorous theoretical microfoundations is accomplished while maintaining a high standard of goodness of fit. Simulations illustrate the effects of ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1997-29

Report
Consequences of state disinvestment in public higher education: lessons for the New England states
Zhao, Bo (2019-02-01)
Public higher education produces many benefits that are vital to the New England economy, but it is increasingly at risk following years of state budget cuts. States have reduced funding for higher education to address short-term budget gaps caused by recessions and long-term budget gaps attributed to the growing costs of Medicaid and public pensions. Research in this report shows that reductions in state appropriations have resulted in higher tuition and fees, greater student loan debt, decreased resources for education and research, and fewer graduates and approved patent applications from ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 19-1

Speech
A Time for Bold Action
Williams, John C. (2020-04-16)
Remarks at Economic Club of New York (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Speech
Panel Remarks: The Fed and Main Street during the Coronavirus Pandemic
Kovner, Anna (2020-04-23)
Panel Remarks at The Fed and Main Street during the Coronavirus Pandemic, WebEx event, April 23, 2020.
Speech

Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
Williams, John C. (2020-05-21)
Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Report
Global price of risk and stabilization policies
Stackman, Daniel; Adrian, Tobias; Vogt, Erik (2016-08-01)
We estimate a highly significant price of risk that forecasts global stock and bond returns as a nonlinear function of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). We show that countries? exposure to the global price of risk is related to macroeconomic risks as measured by output, credit, and inflation volatility, the magnitude of financial crises, and stock and bond market downside risk. Higher exposure to the global price of risk corresponds to both higher output volatility and higher output growth. We document that the transmission of the global price of risk to macroeconomic outcomes is mitigated by ...
Staff Reports , Paper 786

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