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Speech
Monetary, fiscal, and financial stability policy tools: are we equipped for the next recession?: remarks at the 2018 Economics Department Grossman Lecture, Colby College, Waterville, Maine, April 18, 2018
Rosengren, Eric S. (2018-04-18)
The focus of the talk was on tools that are available to policymakers once a significant adverse financial shock occurs.
Speech , Paper 132

Speech
The Great Inflation 2.0 Debate
Evans, Charles L. (2009-07-08)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Council on Foreign Relations New York, NY
Speech , Paper 32

Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2024-09-29)
We digitize state-level and time-varying unemployment insurance (UI) laws on initial eligibility, payment amount, and payment duration and combine them with microdata on labor market outcomes to estimate UI eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level. We document how levels of income and wealth affect unemployment risk, eligibility,take-up, and replacement rates both upon job loss and over the course of unemployment spells. We evaluate whether these empirical findings are important for shaping UI policy design using a general equilibrium incomplete markets model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026

Discussion Paper
At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?
Rouxel-Laxton, Valérie; Rey, Helene; Bertoldi, Moreno; Pesenti, Paolo (2016-06-03)
On April 18, 2016, the New York Fed hosted a conference on current and future policy directions for the linked economies of Europe and the United States. “The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?”—organized jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the European Commission—brought together U.S. and Europe-based policymakers, regulators, and academics to discuss a series of important issues: Are the economies of the euro area and the United States on a convergent or divergent path? Are financial regulatory reforms making the banking and financial structures ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160603

Journal Article
The Macroeconomic Impact of Cash Transfers in Brazil
Mendes, Arthur; Miyamoto, Wataru; Nguyen, Thuy Lan; Pennings, Steven; Feler, Leo (2023-09-23)
Cash transfers are important fiscal policy tools for both advanced and developing countries. A study of one of the world’s largest cash transfer programs—Brazil’s Bolsa Familia—highlights the potentially large, positive, and persistent effects on the regional economy. Estimates using 2004-2019 data show that Brazilian states receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grew at least 2 percentage points faster in the first year. The transfers generate substantial increases in regional formal and informal employment. These effects are larger than those documented in advanced countries like ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 24 , Pages 5

Working Paper
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-03-24)
I study the effects of the 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak in the United States and subsequent fiscal policy response in a nonlinear DSGE model. The pandemic is a shock to the utility of contact-intensive services that propagates to other sectors via general equilibrium, triggering a deep recession. I use a calibrated version of the model to analyze different types of fiscal policies. I find that UI benefits are the most effective tool to stabilize income for borrowers, who are the hardest hit, while savers may favor unconditional transfers. Liquidity assistance programs are effective if the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-006

Working Paper
Fuel subsidies, the oil market and the world economy
Plante, Michael D.; Balke, Nathan S.; Yücel, Mine K. (2014-08-01)
This paper studies the e ffects of oil producing countries' fuel subsidies on the oil market and the world economy. We identify 24 oil producing countries with fuel subsidies where retail fuel prices are about 34 percent of the world price. We construct a two-country model where one country represents the oil-exporting subsidizers and the second the oil-importing bloc, and calibrate the model to match recent data. We find that the removal of subsidies would reduce the world price of oil by six percent. The removal of subsidies is unambiguously welfare enhancing for the oil-importing ...
Working Papers , Paper 1407

Working Paper
The Implications of a graying japan for government policy
Joines, Douglas H.; Braun, R. Anton (2014-11-01)
Japan is in the midst of a demographic transition that is both rapid and large by international standards. As recently as 1990, Japan had the youngest population among the Group of 6 large, developed countries. However, the combined effects of aging of the baby boomer generation and low fertility rates have produced very rapid aging. Japan now finds itself with the oldest population among the Group of 6, and its population will continue to age at a rapid pace in future years. Aging is already placing a burden on government finances, and Japan's ability to confront the negative fiscal ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2014-18

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M. (2022-08-31)
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Latin American countries temporarily suspended rules limiting debt, fiscal and monetary policies. Despite this increase in flexibility, the crisis implied a substantial deterioration of macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP declined by 9.5%) and high welfare costs (which we estimate as equivalent to a 13% one-time reduction in non-tradable consumption). This paper studies a sovereign default model with fiscal and monetary policies to assess the policy response and evaluate the gains from flexibility in times of severe distress.
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Speech
We Can’t Afford Not To
Daly, Mary C. (2020-06-15)
Virtual Event at The National Press Club, by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 15, 2020.
Speech

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