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Keywords:fiscal policy 

Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Asymmetric?

Economic research on the size of the fiscal multiplier has assumed that the effects of changes in government spending are symmetric ? that is, they influence economic output to the same degree whether the change is an increase or a decrease. Richmond Fed research indicates that this is not the case; the fiscal multiplier does vary according to the direction of the fiscal action and also varies with the stage of the economic cycle. This finding sheds light on likely outcomes of fiscal policies and helps account for inconsistent estimates of the multiplier in the literature.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue September

The Main Street Lending Program and Other Federal Reserve Actions

Today I’ll focus on two of the Federal Reserve’s lending programs being run by the Boston Fed: the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility and the Main Street Lending Program.

Working Paper
The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: evidence from military spending panel data

Using panel data on military spending for 125 countries, we document new facts about the effects of changes in government purchases on the real exchange rate, consumption, and current accounts in both advanced and developing countries. While an increase in government purchases causes real exchange rates to appreciate and increases consumption significantly in developing countries, it causes real exchange rates to depreciate and decreases consumption in advanced countries. The current account deteriorates in both groups of countries. These findings are not consistent with standard ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-14

Working Paper
Fiscal Stimulus and Firms: A Tale of Two Recessions

In this paper, I examine the effects of a countercyclical fiscal policy that gave firms additional tax refunds--additional liquidity--at the end of the past two recessions. I take advantage of a discontinuity in the slope of the tax refund formula to estimate the policy's impact. I find that after passage of the policy in 2002, firms allocated $0.40 of every tax refund dollar to investment. After passage of the policy in 2009, in contrast, firms used the refunds to increase cash holdings ($0.96 of every refund dollar) before paying down debt in the following year. I provide evidence that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-13

Risk management in monetary policymaking: remarks to the National Association of Corporate Directors, New England Chapter, Boston, Massachusetts, March 5, 2019

Eric Rosengren, the Boston Fed president, offered up a ?relatively strong forecast? for the economy in 2019: growth somewhat above 2 percent, inflation close to the Fed?s 2 percent target, and a labor market that continues to tighten. However, ?risks to that outlook have increased recently,? he said, in a talk focused on assessing and managing those risks.
Speech , Paper 141

Recurring Themes for the New Year

A speech delivered on January 15, 2014, at the Corridor Economic Forecast Luncheon in Coralville, IA.
Speech , Paper 2

Some unpleasant stabilization arithmetic: remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's 62nd Economic Conference, \\"What are the Consequences of Long Spells of Low Interest Rates?\\", Boston, Massachusetts, September 8, 2018

These slides represent the combined thoughts of President Rosengren and his co-presenters, Joe Peek and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell.

The U. S. economy: an optimistic outlook, but with some important risks: remarks at the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast, Boston, Massachusetts, April 13, 2018

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that his own economic forecast and the forecasts of his colleagues on the Fed's policy committee are "quite positive" ? citing fairly strong economic growth, job creation, falling unemployment, and inflation rising close to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. But Rosengren detailed both short-run and longer-run risks to that positive outlook.
Speech , Paper 131

Working Paper
Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) made significant changes to corporate and personal federal income taxation, including limiting the SALT (state and local property, income and sales taxes) deductibility to $10,000. States with high SALT tend to vote Democratic. This paper estimates the differential effect of the TCJA on red- and blue-state taxpayers and investigates the importance of the SALT limitation to this differential. We calculate the effect of permanent implementation of the TCJA on households using The Fiscal Analyzer: a life-cycle, consumption-smoothing program incorporating ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2019-7

Working Paper

This paper provides a detailed examination of a new set of fiscal forecasts for the U.S. assembled by Croushore and van Norden (2017) from FOMC briefing books. The data are of particular interest because (1) they afford a look at fiscal forecasts over six complete business cycles and several fiscal policy regimes, covering both peacetime and several wars, (2) the forecasts were precisely those presented to monetary policymakers, (3) they include frequently updated estimates of both actual and cyclically adjusted deficits, (4) unlike most other U.S. fiscal forecasts, they were neither partisan ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-13


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Rosengren, Eric S. 17 items

Bullard, James B. 5 items

Dupor, Bill 5 items

Faria-e-Castro, Miguel 4 items

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fiscal policy 85 items

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