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Discussion Paper
A Look at Bank Loan Performance
Vickery, James; Sullivan, Tara (2013-10-16)
U.S. banks experienced a rapid rise in loan delinquencies and defaults during the 2007-09 recession, driven by rising unemployment and falling real estate prices, among other factors. More than four years on from the official end of the recession, how do things look now?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131016b

Working Paper
The International Transmission of Shocks: Foreign Bank Branches in Hong Kong during Crises
Wong, Eric T. C.; Hui, Cho-hoi; Kwan, Simon H. (2014-10)
The international transmission of shocks in the global financial system has always been an important issue for policy makers. Different types of foreign shocks have different effects and policy implications. In this paper, we examine the effects of the recent U.S. financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis on foreign bank branches in Hong Kong. Unlike the literature on global banking that studies a global bank?s foreign operations from a home country perspective, our analysis uses foreign bank branches in Hong Kong and has a distinct host country perspective, which would seem ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-25

Discussion Paper
Crisis Chronicles: The Panic of 1825 and the Most Fantastic Financial Swindle of All Time
Narron, James; Morgan, Donald P. (2015-04-10)
Centered in London, the banking panic of 1825 has been called the first modern financial crisis, the first Latin American crisis, and the first emerging market crisis. And while the panic displayed many of the key elements of past crises we have covered?fluctuations in money growth, an investment bubble, a stock market crash, and bank runs?this crisis had its own twists, including a Bank of England that hesitated before stepping in as lender of last resort. But it is perhaps best known for an infamous bond market swindle surrounding an entirely made-up Central American principality. In this ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150410

Working Paper
An Evaluation of Bank VaR Measures for Market Risk During and Before the Financial Crisis
Szerszen, Pawel J.; O'Brien, James M. (2014-03-07)
We study the performance and behavior of Value at Risk (VaR) measures used by a number of large banks during and before the financial crisis. Alternative benchmark VaR measures, including GARCH-based measures, are also estimated directly from the banks' trading revenues and help to explain the bank VaR performance results. While highly conservative in the pre-crisis period, bank VaR exceedances were excessive and clustered in the crisis period. All benchmark VaRs were more accurate in the pre-crisis period with GARCH VaR measures the most accurate in the crisis period having lower exceedance ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-21

Report
Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences
Ghysels, Eric; Onorante, Luca; Alessi, Luci; Potter, Simon M.; Peach, Richard (2014-07-01)
This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not focus exclusively on point forecast performance. It also examines density forecasts, as well as methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process.
Staff Reports , Paper 680

Speech
Unprecedented Times in our Economy
Evans, Charles L. (2008-10-17)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Fond du Lac Area Association of Commerce Fond du Lac, WI
Speech , Paper 21

Working Paper
The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind
Gourio, Francois; Sim, Jae W.; Kashyap, Anil K. (2017-08-01)
Credit booms sometimes lead to financial crises which are accompanied with severe and persistent economic slumps. Does this imply that monetary policy should ?lean against the wind? and counteract excess credit growth, even at the cost of higher output and inflation volatility? We study this issue quantitatively in a standard small New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a risk of financial crisis that depends on ?excess credit?. We compare monetary policy rules that respond to the output gap with rules that respond to excess credit. We find that leaning ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-21

Journal Article
The Fed's \\"Tequila Crisis\\"
Sablik, Timothy (2017-01)
A financial crisis in Mexico in the mid-1990s sparked a debate about the Fed's role in international markets and its independence
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 3-5

Report
Credit supply disruptions: from credit crunches to financial crisis
Rosengren, Eric S.; Peek, Joe (2015-10-01)
Events that transpired during the recent financial crisis highlight the important role that financial intermediaries still play in the economy, especially during economic downturns. While the breadth and severity of the financial crisis took most observers by surprise, it has renewed academic interest in understanding the effects on the real economy of both financial shocks and the changing nature of financial intermediation. This interest in the real effects of financial shocks highlights a literature that began more than 20 years ago associated with the bank credit crunch of the early ...
Current Policy Perspectives , Paper 15-5

Report
Liquidity and volatility in the U.S. treasury market
Ghysels, Eric; Fleming, Michael J.; Nguyen, Giang; Engle, Robert (2012-12-01)
We model the joint dynamics of intraday liquidity, volume, and volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, especially through the 2007-09 financial crisis and around important economic announcements. Using various specifications based on Bauwens and Giot?s (2000) Log- ACD(1,1) model, we find that liquidity, volume, and volatility are highly persistent, with volatility having a lower short-term persistence than the other two. Market liquidity and volume are important to explaining volatility dynamics but not vice versa. In addition, market dynamics change during the financial crisis, with all ...
Staff Reports , Paper 590

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