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Report
Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences
Ghysels, Eric; Onorante, Luca; Alessi, Luci; Potter, Simon M.; Peach, Richard (2014-07-01)
This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not focus exclusively on point forecast performance. It also examines density forecasts, as well as methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process.
Staff Reports , Paper 680

Working Paper
The adoption of stress testing: why the Basel capital measures were not enough
Wall, Larry D. (2013-12-01)
The Basel capital adequacy ratios lost credibility with financial markets during the crisis. This paper argues that failure was the result of the reliance of the Basel standards on overstated asset values in reported equity capital. The United States? stress tests were able to assist in restoring credibility, in part because they could capture deterioration in asset values. However, whether stress tests will prove equally valuable in the next crisis is not clear. Some of the weaknesses in the Basel ratios are being addressed. Moreover, the U.S. tests? success was the result of a combination ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2013-14

Journal Article
The Changing Composition of Bank Branches in Seventh Federal Reserve District States
George, Taz; O'Dell, Mark; Newberger, Robin G. (2016)
Across the United States, the banking office landscape has shifted substantially since the financial crisis in 2008, reflecting both long-standing trends of small bank closures, as well as more recent patterns of bank branch declines. These trends are playing out in the states of the Seventh District as well, where the number of banking offices has declined in each state, and increasingly, community banks are losing their share of branches in certain markets. Low- and moderate-income (LMI) neighborhoods in a few of the District?s most populous counties are nearly devoid of community banks.
Profitwise , Issue 2 , Pages 4-13

Working Paper
Interconnectedness in the Interbank Market
Brunetti, Celso; Harris, Jeffrey H.; Mankad, Shawn; Michailidis, George (2015-09-30)
We study the behavior of the interbank market before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. Leveraging recent advances in network analysis, we study two network structures, a correlation network based on publicly traded bank returns, and a physical network based on interbank lending transactions. While the two networks behave similarly pre-crisis, during the crisis the correlation network shows an increase in interconnectedness while the physical network highlights a marked decrease in interconnectedness. Moreover, these networks respond differently to monetary and macroeconomic shocks. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-90

Working Paper
Lending to unhealthy firms in Japan during the lost decade: distinguishing between technical and financial health
Chakraborty, Suparna; Peek, Joe (2016-12-01)
We investigate the misallocation of credit in Japan associated with banks? evergreening loans, distinguishing between two types of firm distress: (perhaps temporary) financial distress and technical distress, which reflects weak operational capabilities, as indicated by low total factor productivity. We show that previous evidence related to firms? financial health is problematic due to the mixing of loan-demand and loan-supply effects. Using a direct measure of operational health, we provide unambiguous, direct evidence of evergreening behavior, as well as confirming evidence based on the ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-22

Discussion Paper
Depositor Discipline of Risk-Taking by U.S. Banks
Santos, João A. C.; Peristiani, Stavros (2014-04-14)
The recent financial crisis caused the largest rise in the number of bank failures since the unprecedented banking crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s. This post examines how depositors responded to the amplified risks of bank failure over the last three decades. We show that uninsured depositors discipline troubled banks by withdrawing their funds. Focusing on the recent financial crisis, we find that banks experienced an outflow of uninsured time deposits after the near-failure of Bear Stearns and bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. This depositor risk sensitivity subsided after the Federal ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140414a

Discussion Paper
The Fed Funds Market during the 2007-09 Financial Crisis
Copeland, Adam (2020-11-10)
The U.S. federal funds market played a central role in the financial system during the 2007-09 crisis, because it was the market which provided banks with immediate liquidity, even late in the day. Interpreting changes in fed funds rates is notoriously difficult, however, as many of the economic drivers behind the rates are simultaneously changing. In this post, I highlight results from a working paper which untangles the impact of these economic drivers and measures their respective effects on the marketplace using data over a sample period leading up to and during the financial crisis. The ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20201110

Speech
Unprecedented Times in our Economy
Evans, Charles L. (2008-10-17)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Fond du Lac Area Association of Commerce Fond du Lac, WI
Speech , Paper 21

Speech
Discussion on the Current Economy
Evans, Charles L. (2008-11-21)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive, Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Club of Indiana Indianapolis, Ind.
Speech , Paper 22

Working Paper
Financial stress regimes and the macroeconomy
Owyang, Michael T.; Galvão, Ana B. (2014-07-24)
Some financial stress events lead to macroeconomic downturns, while others appear to be isolated to financial markets. We identify financial stress regimes using a model that explicitly links financial variables to macroeconomic outcomes. The stress regimes are identified using an unbalanced panel of financial variables with an embedded method for variable selection. Our identified stress regimes are associated with corporate credit tightening and with NBER recessions. An exogenous deterioration in our financial condition index has strong negative effects in economic activity, and negative ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-20

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