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Keywords:financial conditions 

Speech
Panel remarks at the Brookings Institution

Remarks at The Fed at a crossroads: Where to go next?, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
Speech , Paper 181

Speech
The Fed’s Emergency Facilities: Usage, Impact, and Early Lessons

Remarks at Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Discussion Paper
How Unconventional Are Large-Scale Asset Purchases?

The large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) undertaken by the Fed starting in late November 2008 are widely considered to be a form of ?unconventional? monetary policy. Although these interventions are certainly unprecedented, this post shows that their effect on financial conditions is not that unconventional, in the sense that the relative effects of the LSAPs on returns across broad asset classes?nominal and real government bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange?are quite similar to those of more conventional policies, such as a reduction in the federal funds rate (FFR).
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140303

Discussion Paper
Changing Risk-Return Profiles

Are stock returns predictable? This question is a perennially popular subject of debate. In this post, we highlight some results from our recent working paper, where we investigate the matter. Rather than focusing on a single object like the forecasted mean or median, we look at the entire distribution of stock returns and find that the realized volatility of stock returns, especially financial sector stock returns, has strong predictive content for the future distribution of stock returns. This is a robust feature of the data since all of our results are obtained with real-time analyses ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181004

Speech
Rising to the Challenge: Central Banking, Financial Markets, and the Pandemic

Remarks at the 16th Meeting of the Financial Research Advisory Committee for the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Report
Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability

We review a growing literature that incorporates endogenous risk premiums and risk taking in the conduct of monetary policy. Accommodative policy can create an intertemporal trade-off between improving current financial conditions and increasing future financial vulnerabilities. In the United States, structural and cyclical macroprudential tools to reduce vulnerabilities at banks are being implemented, but they may not be sufficient because activities can migrate and there are limited tools for nonbank intermediaries and for borrowers. While monetary policy itself can influence ...
Staff Reports , Paper 690

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City

Remarks at Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Speech , Paper 254

Report
Changing risk-return profiles

We show that realized volatility, especially the realized volatility of financial sector stock returns, has strong predictive content for the future distribution of market returns. This is a robust feature of the last century of U.S. data and, most importantly, can be exploited in real time. Current realized volatility has the most information content on the uncertainty of future returns, whereas it has only limited content about the location of the future return distribution. When volatility is low, the predicted distribution of returns is less dispersed and probabilistic forecasts are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 850

Working Paper
The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks

We study the interplay between monetary policy and financial conditions shocks. Such shocks have a significant and similar impact on the real economy, though with different degrees of persistence. The systematic fed funds rate response to a financial shock contributes to bringing the economy back towards trend, but a zero lower bound on policy rates can prevent this from happening, with a significant cost in terms of output and investment. In a retrospective analysis of the U.S. economy over the past 20 years, we decompose the realization of economic variables into the contributions of ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2016-11

Speech
The U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy

Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 185

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