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Keywords:federal funds rates 

Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth

The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Working Paper
An Empirical Study of Trade Dynamics in the Fed Funds Market

We use minute-by-minute daily transaction-level payments data to document the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of the estimated prices and quantities negotiated by commercial banks in the fed funds market. We study the frequency and volume of trade, the size distribution of loans, the distribution of bilateral fed funds rates, and the intraday dynamics of the reserve balances held by commercial banks. We find evidence of the importance of the liquidity provision achieved by commercial banks that act as de facto intermediaries of fed funds.
Working Papers , Paper 708

Working Paper
A Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with Excess Reserves

We model bargaining between non-bank investors and heterogeneous bank borrowers in the federal funds market. The analysis highlights how the federal funds rate will respond to movements in other money market interest rates in an environment with elevated levels of excess reserves. The model predicts that the administered rate offered through the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility influences the fed funds rate even when the facility is not used. Changes in repo rates pass through to the federal funds rate, but by less than one-for-one. We calibrate the model to ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-8

President Bullard Explains His Recent FOMC Dissent

St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discusses why he cast a dissenting vote at the FOMC meeting in March 2022.
On the Economy

Journal Article
How Likely Is the Zero Lower Bound?

We estimate the probability that the federal funds rate will be at or below the zero lower bound over a ten-year time horizon. We do so by specifying and estimating a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for key US macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the estimated model, we generate a distribution of future outcomes from which we compute such probabilities. We find that the zero lower bound probability ranges between 15 percent and 30 percent in the longer term depending on the specific measure used. In the near term, this probability is effectively zero. Robustness checks for ...
Economic Quarterly , Issue 1Q , Pages 41-54

Working Paper
A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-1954

This article describes the origins and development of the federal funds market from its inception in the 1920s to the early 1950s. We present a newly digitized daily data series on the federal funds rate that covers the period from April 1928 through June 1954. We compare the behavior of the funds rate with other money market interest rates and the Federal Reserve discount rate. Our federal funds rate series will enhance the ability of researchers to study an eventful period in U.S. financial history and to better understand how monetary policy was transmitted to banking and financial ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-016

Newsletter
Teaching the Linkage Between Banks and the Fed: R.I.P. Money Multiplier

The money multiplier has been a standard concept in introductory economics classes for decades, but changes in the way the Fed implements monetary policy has made the model obsolete. This issue provides information about the linkages between the Fed and the banking system and provides teaching suggestions.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Speech
Observations on Monetary Policy and the Zero Lower Bound: Remarks for a Panel Discussion at the 2020 Spring Meeting of the Shadow Open Market Committee: “Current Monetary Policy: The Influence of Marvin Goodfriend”

I would like to thank the organizers of this conference for inviting me to participate on this panel – and more broadly for organizing a conference examining many of the challenges policymakers have faced over the past 20 years. As many of you know, these were challenges that Marvin Goodfriend anticipated, well before the Great Recession forced policymakers to confront them. Specifically, our panel topic – monetary policy and the zero lower bound – is one that Marvin devoted a good deal of thought to. And as I’ll touch on today, his emphasis on this topic proved prescient.
Speech

Journal Article
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis

We review the macroeconomic performance during the Global Financial Crisis and subsequent economic expansion, as well as the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-­crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Review , Volume 103 , Issue 4 , Pages 425-460

Report
An empirical study of trade dynamics in the interbank market

We use minute-by-minute daily transaction-level payments data to document the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of the estimated prices and quantities negotiated by commercial banks in the fed funds market. We study the frequency and volume of trade, the size distribution of loans, the distribution of bilateral fed funds rates, and the intraday dynamics of the reserve balances held by commercial banks. We find evidence of the importance of the liquidity provision achieved by commercial banks that act as de facto intermediaries of fed funds.
Staff Reports , Paper 550

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