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President Bullard Explains His Recent FOMC Dissent
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discusses why he cast a dissenting vote at the FOMC meeting in March 2022.
Journal Article
Average Inflation Targeting in the Financial Crisis Recovery
The Federal Reserve adopted average inflation targeting as part of its long-run monetary strategy framework in 2020. This strategy allows inflation to rise and fall such that it averages 2% over time. Analysis shows that a version of average inflation targeting that is partly forward-looking—that is, one that responds in part to expected future inflation—could have improved economic outcomes in the recovery from the financial crisis of 2008, as well as substantially reduced the uncertainty around economic outcomes.
Report
An empirical study of trade dynamics in the interbank market
We use minute-by-minute daily transaction-level payments data to document the cross-sectional and time-series behavior of the estimated prices and quantities negotiated by commercial banks in the fed funds market. We study the frequency and volume of trade, the size distribution of loans, the distribution of bilateral fed funds rates, and the intraday dynamics of the reserve balances held by commercial banks. We find evidence of the importance of the liquidity provision achieved by commercial banks that act as de facto intermediaries of fed funds.
Speech
Observations on Monetary Policy and the Zero Lower Bound: Remarks for a Panel Discussion at the 2020 Spring Meeting of the Shadow Open Market Committee: “Current Monetary Policy: The Influence of Marvin Goodfriend”
I would like to thank the organizers of this conference for inviting me to participate on this panel – and more broadly for organizing a conference examining many of the challenges policymakers have faced over the past 20 years. As many of you know, these were challenges that Marvin Goodfriend anticipated, well before the Great Recession forced policymakers to confront them. Specifically, our panel topic – monetary policy and the zero lower bound – is one that Marvin devoted a good deal of thought to. And as I’ll touch on today, his emphasis on this topic proved prescient.
Newsletter
How Does the Fed Use Its Monetary Policy Tools to Influence the Economy?
The Federal Reserve has a congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. The May issue of Page One Economics explains how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conducts monetary policy by setting the target range for the federal funds rate and how the Fed uses its policy tools to steer the federal funds rate into the FOMC’s target range.
Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth
The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
Speech
The Economic Outlook
Remarks at Foreign Policy Association, New York City.
Newsletter
Teaching the Linkage Between Banks and the Fed: R.I.P. Money Multiplier
The money multiplier has been a standard concept in introductory economics classes for decades, but changes in the way the Fed implements monetary policy has made the model obsolete. This issue provides information about the linkages between the Fed and the banking system and provides teaching suggestions.
Journal Article
Mitigating COVID-19 Effects with Conventional Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate in response to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The full impact of the pandemic on the economy is still uncertain and depends on many factors. Analysis suggests that allowing the federal funds rate to fall fast will help the economy cope with the aftermath of COVID-19. In particular, the limited policy space due to the effective lower bound of the federal funds rate before the pandemic reinforces rather than offsets the need for a rapid funds rate decline.
Working Paper
A Sequential Bargaining Model of the Fed Funds Market with Excess Reserves
We model bargaining between non-bank investors and heterogeneous bank borrowers in the federal funds market. The analysis highlights how the federal funds rate will respond to movements in other money market interest rates in an environment with elevated levels of excess reserves. The model predicts that the administered rate offered through the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility influences the fed funds rate even when the facility is not used. Changes in repo rates pass through to the federal funds rate, but by less than one-for-one. We calibrate the model to ...