Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate
The Federal Reserve’s use of forward guidance and balance sheet policy means that monetary policy consists of more than changing the federal funds rate target. A proxy federal funds rate that incorporates data from financial markets can help assess the broader stance of monetary policy. This proxy measure shows that, since late 2021, monetary policy has been substantially tighter than the federal funds rate indicates. Tightening financial conditions are similar to what would be expected if the funds rate had exceeded 5¼% by September 2022.
Bullard Discusses Recent Policy Rate Increase, Outlook for U.S. Economy in Fireside Chat
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard shared his thoughts on the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest policy rate increase and the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy. He spoke during a fireside chat with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Minnesota.On May 3, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 5%-5.25%. Bullard said he thought the move “was a good next step for the committee.” He noted that the FOMC has done a lot in the past year or so. “But we have a lot of inflation in the ...
What Is the Monetary Standard? The Fed Should Tell Us
The Federal Reserve System (Fed) is a regular feature in the media. When the Fed communicates with the public, its focus is on forward guidance related to monetary policy—specifically, for achieving low unemployment and low inflation. Fed participants on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convey what they see as the likely path of policy, including changes in the federal funds rate, a standard monetary policy tool. Because financial markets find this information useful, news stories thoroughly cover Fed communication.However, such communication fails to explain the structure of the ...
The Effect of Higher Financing Costs on Job Openings and Online Job Postings
In this Economic Commentary, we consider whether the declines in vacancies seen in the second half of 2022 could have been driven by monetary policy tightening. We look at whether the variation in this decline across industries and states was consistent with increases in the federal funds rate. Our first strategy focuses on variation at the industry level in exposure to higher borrowing costs. Our second leverages geographic differences in the effect of monetary policy tightening on financing costs. Both strategies suggest that monetary policy is, at least in part, responsible for the recent ...
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Market Liquidity and the Quantity Theory of Money
A rising federal funds rate means there is less liquidity in the market, which could help reduce the inflation rate in the months ahead.
A Diligent Return to Price Stability
Last week, the FOMC raised its target range of the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. We also indicated that we anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a monetary policy stance that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. Given the level and persistence of inflation, the journey back to 2 percent inflation will likely take some time. The FOMC is also continuing the process of reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet by allowing assets to roll off, which also helps to firm the stance ...
Bullard Discusses Labor Markets, U.S. Economy and Inflation on Wharton Business Radio
During an Oct. 21 interview on Wharton Business Radio, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard shared his views on various aspects of the U.S. economy and monetary policy. He said strong labor markets are giving the Fed some leeway to fight inflation. He reiterated his view that the FOMC should get to a level of the federal funds rate that puts meaningful downward pressure on inflation. Bullard also discussed GDP growth in 2022, low productivity numbers, various measures of inflation, the yield curve inversion, and the slowdown in money growth
Remarks for the Panel Discussion “Why Did We Miscast Inflation?”
Inflation remains too high, and recent data – including several strong labor market indicators, as well as faster than expected retail sales and producer price inflation – all reinforce my view that we have more work to do, to bring inflation down to the 2 percent target. While optimistic there is a path to restoring price stability without a significant downturn, I am also well aware of the many risks and uncertainties, including the risk of a self-fulfilling loss of business and consumer confidence.