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Working Paper
Measurement Error and Time Aggregation: A Closer Look at Estimates of Output-Labor Elasticities
Estevao, Marcello
This paper analyzes the effect of time aggregation on estimates of the elasticities of output with respect to employment and to average hours of work. The main goal is to get accurate estimates of production function parameters. Low frequency data generate better estimates of output-employment elasticity while high frequency data generate better estimates of output-average hours elasticity. This result comes from the fact that time aggregation increases (decreases) the bias in the estimate of the elasticity with respect to average hours (employment). Estimations of these elasticities at ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-02

Discussion Paper
Is Wall Street the Only Street in New York City?
Hastings, Jonathan; Bram, Jason; Orr, James A. (2012-06-06)
Has Wall Street?the term for the securities industry that symbolizes New York City?s role as a global financial center?become less of a specialty for the city? In this post, we show that while the securities industry continues to play an outsized role in the New York City economy, the city?s job base has become somewhat more diversified since 1990. Diversification can be beneficial, as it makes a local economy less vulnerable to adverse shocks to its key industry. A recent example appears in a post by Bram and Orr showing that with Wall Street in a bit of a slump, nonfinancial industries have ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120606

Discussion Paper
Good News or Bad on New York City Jobs?
Bram, Jason; Orr, James A. (2012-08-13)
Unlike much of the nation, New York City has seen a robust rebound in employment since the recession. In early 2012, employment here reached 3.86 million, the largest number of jobs ever recorded. Yet the city?s unemployment rate has risen in recent months and is now 10 percent?its peak during the recession?and well above the 5 percent rate seen before the downturn. This lack of improvement reflects the fact that the number of employed residents of the city has not rebounded at all from its losses during the 2008-09 downturn. While commuters from outside the city have always been a part of ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20120813

Discussion Paper
The Different Paths of Greece and Spain to High Unemployment
Sahin, Aysegul; Klitgaard, Thomas (2012-11-28)
Euro area GDP remains below its 2007 level due to the global financial meltdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the periphery countries. Unemployment rates make it clear that some countries have fared much worse than others?the rates in Spain and Greece today are over 25 percent and are much higher than rates in the next highest, Portugal (15.7 percent), and in the euro area (11.6 percent). Quite a change from 2007, when Spain and Greece had lower unemployment rates than the euro area as a whole. In this post, we show that while the unemployment rates in the two countries are ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121128

Discussion Paper
The Path of Economic Recovery from Superstorm Sandy
Bram, Jason; Orr, James A.; Deitz, Richard; Abel, Jaison R. (2012-12-21)
Superstorm Sandy caused damage and disruption to a wide swath of the New York-New Jersey region. The high winds and storm surge resulted in significant physical damage to residential property, commercial real estate, and the power and transportation infrastructure. Everyday activities such as commuting, shopping, and traveling were impeded or in some cases prevented. As a number of communities across the region continue to cope with the damage and ongoing disruptions, there?s concern about if and when activity will return to normal.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121221

Briefing
The impact of policy uncertainty on U. S. employment: industry evidence
Wang, J. Christina (2013)
The anemic pace of the recovery of the U. S. economy from the Great Recession has frequently been blamed on heightened uncertainty, much of which concerns the nation?s fiscal policy. Intuition suggests that increased policy uncertainty likely has different impacts on different industries, to the extent that industries differ in their exposure to government policies. This study utilizes industry data to explore whether policy uncertainty indeed affects the dynamics of employment, and particularly its impact on industry employment, during this recovery. This analysis focuses on heterogeneity ...
Public Policy Brief

Briefing
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on New England Homeowners and Renters
Chiumenti, Nicholas (2020-05-18)
Job losses and likely layoffs related to the COVID-19 pandemic will put many New England residents at risk of not being able to pay their mortgage or rent and needing financial assistance and state-government safeguards to remain in their homes. Economic interventions from Congress, primarily through the federal CARES Act, include direct payments to households and increased unemployment insurance benefits that are expected to provide vital support to many of these households for the next three to four months. Even with these efforts, 2 to 3 percent of New England homeowners and9 to 13 ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2020-02

Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook
Williams, John C. (2019-09-04)
Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Speech , Paper 328

Report
Bad credit, no problem? Credit and labor market consequences of bad credit reports
Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul; Dobbie, Will; Mahoney, Neale; Song, Jae (2016-10-01)
Credit reports are used in nearly all consumer lending decisions and, increasingly, in hiring decisions in the labor market, but the impact of a bad credit report is largely unknown. We study the effects of credit reports on financial and labor market outcomes using a difference-in-differences research design that compares changes in outcomes over time for Chapter 13 filers, whose personal bankruptcy flags are removed from credit reports after seven years, to changes for Chapter 7 filers, whose personal bankruptcy flags are removed from credit reports after ten years. Using credit bureau ...
Staff Reports , Paper 795

Report
Firms’ Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis
Melcangi, Davide (2019-11-01)
Can the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks be large even when a small share of firms are credit-constrained? I use U.K. firm-level accounting data to discipline a heterogeneous-firm model in which the interaction between real and financial frictions induces precautionary cash holdings. In the data, firms increased their cash ratios during the last recession, and cash-intensive firms displayed higher employment growth. A tightening of firms? credit conditions generates the same dynamics in the model. Unconstrained firms pre-emptively respond to credit supply shocks, and this ...
Staff Reports , Paper 904

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