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Discussion Paper
Firms' Employment and Wage Outlook Going Into 2025
Mengedoth, Joseph; Kosakow, Jason (2024-12-20)
Every November, the Richmond Fed asks businesses a series of questions about their expectations for hiring, wage adjustments, and other employment-related topics. This year, in addition to the usual set of questions, we asked firms if they have reduced the size of their workforce over the past three months and what workforce decisions they would make if business conditions deteriorated in the next six months.Consistent with past results, most responding businesses expect to maintain or increase employee headcount over the next 12 months. However, there were some shifts in responses compared ...
Regional Matters

Report
Can Treatment with Medications for Opioid Use Disorder Improve Employment Prospects? Evidence from Rhode Island Medicaid Enrollees
Burke, Mary A.; Sullivan, Riley (2022-12-01)
The nation’s long-standing crisis of opioid abuse intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic, with opioid-related deaths rising to nearly 81,000 in 2021, an increase of more than 60 percent from just two years earlier. Also during the pandemic, the labor force participation rate in the United States fell precipitously, and as of September 2022 it remained depressed by more than a full percentage point relative to its February 2020 level despite record numbers of job openings in 2021 and 2022. The unfortunate confluence of labor shortages and record-setting opioid mortality highlights the need ...
New England Public Policy Center Research Report , Paper 22-3

The Changing Composition of Disability among America’s Workers
Gascon, Charles S.; Martorana, Joseph; Moore, Samuel (2024-08-22)
Employment has increased at a higher rate among the disabled population than the broader population since the onset of COVID-19. Which types of disabilities are associated with the recent increase?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Household Liquidity and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Mortgage Forbearance
Lee, Sean Chanwook; Maghzian, Omeed (2023-09-10)
We estimate the impact of household liquidity provision on macroeconomic stabilization using the 2020 CARES Act mortgage forbearance program. We leverage intermediation frictions in forbearance induced by mortgage servicers to identify the effect of reducing short-term payments with little change in long-term debt obligations on local labor market outcomes. Following statewide business reopenings, a 1 percentage point increase in the share of mortgages in forbearance leads to a 30 basis point increase in monthly employment growth in nontradable industries. In a model incorporating ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-12

Briefing
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on New England Homeowners and Renters
Chiumenti, Nicholas (2020-05-18)
Job losses and likely layoffs related to the COVID-19 pandemic will put many New England residents at risk of not being able to pay their mortgage or rent and needing financial assistance and state-government safeguards to remain in their homes. Economic interventions from Congress, primarily through the federal CARES Act, include direct payments to households and increased unemployment insurance benefits that are expected to provide vital support to many of these households for the next three to four months. Even with these efforts, 2 to 3 percent of New England homeowners and 9 to 13 ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2020-02

Journal Article
BankWork$ Gives Underemployed Residents Access to Entry-Level Banking Positions
Rolland, Keith (2016-07)
Low-income residents facing employment barriers are obtaining entry-level job opportunities in the banking industry through a program launched 10 years ago in Los Angeles. The program, BankWork$, is undergoing a planned national replication.
Cascade , Volume 3

Working Paper
The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David (2024-09-20)
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption at work and at home. In August 2024, 39 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 used generative AI. More than 24 percent of workers used it at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and nearly one in nine used it every workday. Historical data on usage and mass-market product launches suggest that U.S. adoption of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-027

Journal Article
Rental Housing Affordability Impacts Educational and Employment Opportunities*
Divringi, Eileen (2017-04)
Though safe, stable housing is widely recognized as a basic human need, it is far from assured for many renters in the Third Federal Reserve District. Across Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, the lowest-income renters faced severe shortages of affordable and available units (Figure 1) in 2014, leading to widespread housing cost burdens among households with the most limited means. In all three states, the share of lower-income renter households with unaffordable housing costs1 grew significantly from 2005 to 2014, ranging from over two-thirds in Pennsylvania to more than three-quarters ...
Cascade , Volume 1

Speech
Rules of Three
Williams, John C. (2024-01-10)
Remarks at Bronx EDC and BICNY’s 2024 Regional Economic Outlook, White Plains, New York.
Speech

Journal Article
Men’s Falling Labor Force Participation across Generations
Bengali, Leila; Duzhak, Evgeniya A.; Zhao, Cindy (2023-10-10)
The labor force participation rate for prime-age men has been declining for decades. About 14% of millennial males at age 25 are not in the labor force, compared with 7% of baby boomer males when they were that age. This generational gap declines substantially as groups approach middle age; the decline reflects that younger millennials enrolled in postsecondary education at higher rates and moved into the workforce later than prior generations. The convergence for millennial males suggests that the trend of men’s higher nonparticipation rates may slow in the future.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 06 , Pages 6

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