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Discussion Paper
Beginning to Gauge Maria’s Effect on Puerto Rico’s Economy

Just two weeks after most of Puerto Rico dodged the proverbial bullet, missing the brunt of Hurricane Irma, the island was devastated by Maria?one of the ten strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record. Making landfall on September 20, 2017, the storm caused not only massive physical destruction and tragic loss of life but also widespread and persistent power outages, shortages of potable (and even nonpotable) running water, and disruptions to telecommunications and travel, among other issues. With the storm boosting costs and disrupting activity, the short-term economic impact is clearly ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180112

Discussion Paper
The (Modest) Rebound in Manufacturing Jobs

The United States lost 5.7 million manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010, reducing the nation?s manufacturing employment base by nearly a third. These job losses and their causes have been well documented in the popular press and in academic circles. Less well recognized is the modest yet significant rebound in manufacturing jobs that has been underway for several years. Indeed, employment in the manufacturing industry began to stabilize in 2010, and the nation has added nearly 1 million jobs since then. Although modest in magnitude, this uptick in manufacturing jobs represents the longest ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190204

Discussion Paper
Where Are Manufacturing Jobs Coming Back?

As we outlined in our previous post, the United States lost close to sixmillion manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010 but since then has gained back almost one million. In this post, we take a closer look at the geographic dimension of this modest rebound in manufacturing jobs. While job losses during the 2000s were fairly widespread across the country, manufacturing employment gains since then have been concentrated in particular parts of the country. Indeed, these gains were especially large in ?auto alley??a narrow motor vehicle production corridor stretching from Michigan south to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190206b

Discussion Paper
Ten years later – Did QE work?

By November 2008, the Global Financial Crisis, which originated in the residential housing market and the shadow banking system, had begun to turn into a major recession, spurring the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to initiate what we now refer to as quantitative easing (QE). In this blog post, we draw upon the empirical findings of post-crisis academic research's including our own work's to shed light on the question: Did QE work?
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190508

Discussion Paper
U.S. Virgin Islands Struggle while Puerto Rico Rebounds

Two years after hurricanes Irma and Maria wreaked havoc on Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the two territories? economies have moved in very different directions. When the hurricanes struck, both were already in long economic slumps and had significant fiscal problems. As of the summer of 2019, however, Puerto Rico?s economy was showing considerable signs of improvement since the hurricanes, while the Virgin Islands? economy remained mired in a deep slump through the end of 2018, though signs of a nascent recovery have emerged in 2019. In this post, we assess the contrasting trends ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191002

Discussion Paper
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?

In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, nearly all U.S. states imposed social distancing policies to combat the spread of illness. To the extent that work can be done from home, some workers moved their offices to their abodes. Others, however, are unable to continue working as their usual tasks require a specific location or environment, or involve close proximity to others. Which types of jobs cannot be done from home and which types of jobs require close personal proximity to others? What share of overall U.S. employment falls in these categories? And, given that these jobs will be the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200529b

Speech
Addressing the Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Today, we’re witnessing the pandemic’s stark effects on public health. Meanwhile, the necessary response – social distancing – has stilled our strong economy, disrupting countless lives and livelihoods. It’s also been distorting the credit and liquidity flows that underpin our economy, threatening the greater pain of a full-blown financial crisis. Traditional economic models are challenged by this unique situation. To me, the most important factors are how well we avoid financial spillovers, and how effective the fiscal stimulus is, as well as the progression of COVID-19 infections. ...
Speech

Working Paper
The Costs of (sub)Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's unique characteristics as a U.S. territory allow us to examine the channels through which (sub)sovereign default risk can have real effects on the macroeconomy. Post-2012, during the period of increased default probabilities, the cointegrating relationship between real activity in Puerto Rico and the U.S. mainland breaks down and Puerto Rico spirals into a significant decline. We exploit the cross-industry variation in default risk exposure to identify the impact of changes in default risk on employment. The evidence suggests that there are significantly higher employment growth ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-3

Speech
The Main Street Lending Program and Other Federal Reserve Actions

Today I’ll focus on two of the Federal Reserve’s lending programs being run by the Boston Fed: the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility and the Main Street Lending Program.
Speech

Speech
An Update on the Economy and the Main Street Lending Program

Today I would like to speak with you about the pandemic, its effects on the economy, the implications for Federal Reserve policymaking, and some of the steps that the Fed is taking to address the crisis and mitigate its financial impact on American households and businesses.
Speech

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