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Working Paper
Measurement Error and Time Aggregation: A Closer Look at Estimates of Output-Labor Elasticities
Estevao, Marcello
This paper analyzes the effect of time aggregation on estimates of the elasticities of output with respect to employment and to average hours of work. The main goal is to get accurate estimates of production function parameters. Low frequency data generate better estimates of output-employment elasticity while high frequency data generate better estimates of output-average hours elasticity. This result comes from the fact that time aggregation increases (decreases) the bias in the estimate of the elasticity with respect to average hours (employment). Estimations of these elasticities at ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-02

Discussion Paper
The Different Paths of Greece and Spain to High Unemployment
Sahin, Aysegul; Klitgaard, Thomas (2012-11-28)
Euro area GDP remains below its 2007 level due to the global financial meltdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the periphery countries. Unemployment rates make it clear that some countries have fared much worse than others?the rates in Spain and Greece today are over 25 percent and are much higher than rates in the next highest, Portugal (15.7 percent), and in the euro area (11.6 percent). Quite a change from 2007, when Spain and Greece had lower unemployment rates than the euro area as a whole. In this post, we show that while the unemployment rates in the two countries are ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121128

Briefing
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on New England Homeowners and Renters
Chiumenti, Nicholas (2020-05-18)
Job losses and likely layoffs related to the COVID-19 pandemic will put many New England residents at risk of not being able to pay their mortgage or rent and needing financial assistance and state-government safeguards to remain in their homes. Economic interventions from Congress, primarily through the federal CARES Act, include direct payments to households and increased unemployment insurance benefits that are expected to provide vital support to many of these households for the next three to four months. Even with these efforts, 2 to 3 percent of New England homeowners and9 to 13 ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2020-02

Speech
Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook
Williams, John C. (2019-09-04)
Remarks at Euromoney Real Return XIII: The Inflation-Linked Products Conference 2019, New York City.
Speech , Paper 328

Report
Bad credit, no problem? Credit and labor market consequences of bad credit reports
Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul; Dobbie, Will; Mahoney, Neale; Song, Jae (2016-10-01)
Credit reports are used in nearly all consumer lending decisions and, increasingly, in hiring decisions in the labor market, but the impact of a bad credit report is largely unknown. We study the effects of credit reports on financial and labor market outcomes using a difference-in-differences research design that compares changes in outcomes over time for Chapter 13 filers, whose personal bankruptcy flags are removed from credit reports after seven years, to changes for Chapter 7 filers, whose personal bankruptcy flags are removed from credit reports after ten years. Using credit bureau ...
Staff Reports , Paper 795

Report
Firms’ Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis
Melcangi, Davide (2019-11-01)
Can the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks be large even when a small share of firms are credit-constrained? I use U.K. firm-level accounting data to discipline a heterogeneous-firm model in which the interaction between real and financial frictions induces precautionary cash holdings. In the data, firms increased their cash ratios during the last recession, and cash-intensive firms displayed higher employment growth. A tightening of firms? credit conditions generates the same dynamics in the model. Unconstrained firms pre-emptively respond to credit supply shocks, and this ...
Staff Reports , Paper 904

Report
Spatial Wage Gaps and Frictional Labor Markets
Heise, Sebastian; Porzio, Tommaso (2019-10-01)
We develop a job-ladder model with labor reallocation across firms and space, which we design to leverage matched employer-employee data to study differences in wages and labor productivity across regions. We apply our framework to data from Germany: twenty-five years after the reunification, real wages in the East are still 26 percent lower than those in the West. We find that 60 percent of the wage gap is due to labor being paid a higher wage per efficiency unit in West Germany, and quantify three distinct barriers that prevent East Germans from migrating west to obtain a higher wage: ...
Staff Reports , Paper 898

Report
The marginal propensity to hire
Melcangi, Davide (2018-12-01)
This paper studies the link between firm-level financial constraints and employment decisions, as well as the implications for the propagation of aggregate shocks. I exploit the idea that, when the financial constraint binds, a firm adjusts its employment in response to cash flow shocks. I identify such shocks from changes to business rates, a U.K. tax based on a periodically estimated value of the property occupied by the firm. A 2010 revaluation implied that similar firms, occupying similar properties in narrowly defined geographical locations, experienced different tax changes, allowing me ...
Staff Reports , Paper 875

Report
Local banks, credit supply, and house prices
Blickle, Kristian S. (2018-11-01)
I study the effects of an increase in the supply of local mortgage credit on local house prices and employment by exploiting a natural experiment from Switzerland. In mid-2008, losses in U.S. security holdings triggered a migration of dissatisfied retail customers from a large, universal bank, UBS, to homogeneous local mortgage lenders. Mortgage lenders located close to UBS branches experienced larger inflows of deposits, regardless of their investment opportunities. Using variation in the geographic distance between UBS branches and local mortgage lenders as an instrument for deposit growth, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 874

Discussion Paper
Beginning to Gauge Maria’s Effect on Puerto Rico’s Economy
Bram, Jason; Thomas, Lauren (2018-01-12)
Just two weeks after most of Puerto Rico dodged the proverbial bullet, missing the brunt of Hurricane Irma, the island was devastated by Maria?one of the ten strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record. Making landfall on September 20, 2017, the storm caused not only massive physical destruction and tragic loss of life but also widespread and persistent power outages, shortages of potable (and even nonpotable) running water, and disruptions to telecommunications and travel, among other issues. With the storm boosting costs and disrupting activity, the short-term economic impact is clearly ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180112

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