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Keywords:effective lower bound 

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis

We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-026

Working Paper
The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest

We study how changes in the steady-state real interest rate affect the optimal inflation target in a New Keynesian DSGE model with trend inflation and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a lower steady-state real interest rate increases the probability of hitting the lower bound. That effect can be counteracted by an increase in the inflation target, but the resulting higher steady-state inflation has a welfare cost in and of itself. We use an estimated DSGE model to quantify that tradeoff and determine the implied optimal inflation target, conditional on the monetary ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-18

Working Paper
An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy

This paper evaluates the literature on international unconventional monetary policies (UMP). Introducing market segmentation, limits-to-arbitrage, and time-consistent policy in standard models permits a theoretical role for UMP. Empirical studies provide compelling evidence that UMP influenced international asset prices and tail-risk in the desired manner. Calibrated modeling and vector autoregressive (VAR) exercises imply that these policies also improved macroeconomic outcomes. We assess the recent debate on the empirical evidence and discuss central bank assessments of UMP. Despite ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-021

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis

We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Working Papers , Paper 2020-026

Working Paper
An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy

This paper critically evaluates the literature on international unconventional monetary policies. We begin by reviewing the theories of how such heterogeneous policies could work. Empirically, event studies provide compelling evidence that international asset purchase announcements have strongly influenced international bond yields, exchange rates, and equity prices in the desired manner and curtailed market perceptions of extreme events. Calibrated modeling and vector autoregressive (VAR) exercises imply that these policies significantly improved macroeconomic outcomes, raising output and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-21

Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis

We review the macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 399

Journal Article
Is the Risk of the Lower Bound Reducing Inflation?

U.S. inflation has remained below the Fed’s 2% goal for over 10 years, averaging about 1.5%. One contributing factor may be the impact from a higher probability of future monetary policy being constrained by the effective lower bound on interest rates. Model simulations suggest that this higher risk of hitting the lower bound may lead to lower expectations for future inflation, which in turn reduces inflation compensation for investors. The higher risk may also change household and business spending and pricing behavior. Taken together, these effects contribute to weaker inflation.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 05 , Pages 05

Working Paper
Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs

Interest rate data are an important element of macroeconomic forecasting. Projections of future interest rates are not only an important product themselves, but also typically matter for forecasting other macroeconomic and financial variables. A popular class of forecasting models is linear vector autoregressions (VARs) that include shorter- and longer-term interest rates. However, in a number of economies, at least shorter-term interest rates have now been stuck for years at or near their effective lower bound (ELB), with longer-term rates drifting toward the constraint as well. In such an ...
Working Papers , Paper 202109

Journal Article
Mitigating COVID-19 Effects with Conventional Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate in response to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The full impact of the pandemic on the economy is still uncertain and depends on many factors. Analysis suggests that allowing the federal funds rate to fall fast will help the economy cope with the aftermath of COVID-19. In particular, the limited policy space due to the effective lower bound of the federal funds rate before the pandemic reinforces rather than offsets the need for a rapid funds rate decline.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 09 , Pages 05

Speech
Important choices for the Federal Reserve in the years ahead: remarks at Lehman College, Bronx, New York

Remarks at Lehman College, Bronx, New York.
Speech , Paper 282

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