College Towns and COVID-19: The Impact on New England
The abrupt closing of college campuses this spring due to the spread of COVID-19 upended the lives of students and their families and disrupted the higher education sector. The impact of these closures and the questions of whether and how to reopen campuses this fall have been widely discussed. Less attention has been paid to the potential consequences for the local economies of the cities and towns that depend heavily on higher education. This issue is particularly important in New England, where in many communities, colleges and universities are among the largest employers and make an ...
How Do the Fed's MBS Holdings Affect the Economy?
In our previous post, we discussed the meaning of the term “credit allocation” and how it relates to the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). We concluded that the Fed’s MBS holdings do not pose significant credit risk but that the Fed does influence the relative market price of credit when it purchases agency MBS, and this indirectly influences decisions by investors. Today, we take the next step and discuss how the Fed’s MBS purchases affect the U.S. economy and, in particular, how the effect of MBS purchases can differ from the effect of ...
The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth
What happens to the economy when it gets hot outside? Despite long-standing assumptions that economic damage from rising global temperatures would be limited to the agricultural sector or developing economies, this Economic Brief presents evidence that higher summer temperatures hurt a variety of business sectors in the United States
Are Markets Becoming Less Competitive?
National markets in many U.S. industries seem to be increasingly dominated by large companies. Some policymakers have argued that this growing market concentration is a sign of weakening competition, but concentration by itself does not necessarily translate into market power. It may be too soon to reach a decisive conclusion about whether market power, not simply market concentration, is on the rise.
Exploring causes of and responses to the opioid epidemic in New England
The opioid epidemic remains rampant in New England, where, from 2015 through 2017, more than 10,000 people died from opioid overdoses. In 2017, each of the six states experienced an overdose-death rate that was greater than the national average. Beyond causing a high number of deaths, the opioid epidemic is costing New England productive workers. People with the most severe problems stemming from opioid-use disorder tend to be in the 25?44 age group, but no one is immune. The epidemic affects people of every type?all ages and all races, men and women, residents of rural areas and of urban ...
U.S. Economic Outlook
Remarks by Michael H. Moskow President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
The Effect of Weather on First-Quarter GDP
In a pattern similar to that of the previous year, the U.S. economy appeared to slow down this past winter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis currently estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 0.6% (at an annualized rate) in the first quarter of 2015. And as in the previous year, harsh winter weather has been cited by some observers as being responsible for the slowdown. However, there is substantial disagreement on the impact of weather on economic activity.
Economy to Roll Along at a Solid Pace in 2015 and Accelerate Slightly in 2016
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to be near its long-term average this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2016. Inflation is expected to decrease in 2015 but rebound in 2016. The unemployment rate is anticipated to move lower through the end of 2016, reaching 5 percent by then. Light vehicle sales are predicted to improve moderately in 2015 and 2016.
Economy to Keep Rolling Along in 2016 and Accelerate Slightly in 2017
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to be near its long-term average this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2017. Inflation is expected to increase in both 2016 and 2017. The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge lower through the end of 2017, reaching 4.8% by then. Light vehicle sales are predicted to be flat, at 17.3 million units, in 2016 and decrease slightly in 2017.