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Report
The Effect of the Central Bank Liquidity Support during Pandemics: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
The coronavirus outbreak raises the question of how central bank liquidity support affects financial stability and promotes economic recovery. Using newly assembled data on cross-county flu mortality rates and state-charter bank balance sheets in New York State, we investigate the effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic on the banking system and the role of the Federal Reserve during the pandemic. We find that banks located in more severely affected areas experienced deposit withdrawals. Banks that were members of the Federal Reserve System were able to access central bank liquidity, enabling ...
Working Paper
Have Distressed Neighborhoods Recovered? Evidence from the Neighborhood Stabilization Program
During the 2007-2009 housing crisis, concentrations of foreclosed and vacant properties created severe blight in many cities and neighborhoods. The federal Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) was established to help mitigate distress in hard-hit areas by funding the rehabilitation or demolition of troubled properties. This paper analyzes housing market changes in areas that received investments during the second round of NSP funding, focusing on seven large urban counties. Grantees used NSP to invest in census tracts with high rates of distressed and vacancy properties, and tracts that ...
Speech
Ethics and economics: making cyclical downturns less severe: remarks at the Fourth Annual O. John Olcay Lecture on Ethics and Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., June 27, 2018
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the costs of high unemployment are disproportionately borne by those that can least afford them, and a variety of actions could be taken by policymakers to make periods of high unemployment less likely.
Speech
The COVID-19 Pandemic, the Economic Outlook, and the Main Street Lending Program
Unfortunately, the economic outlook is being driven by the course of the pandemic, and much depends on how successfully it can be contained, either through public health or medical innovations. The forecast for the U.S. economy this fall is quite uncertain, but President Rosengren's view is that the recent slowdown in economic activity that we have seen in high frequency data is likely to continue. Currently, we have an unemployment rate above 10 percent, and because of the continued community spread of the virus, he is concerned that the pandemic will limit the ability of the economy to ...
Journal Article
The National Fund for Workforce Solutions: The Impact and Challenges of Its Workforce Partnership Model
The recent economic recession and equally anemic recovery have dramatically changed the job outlook for low-wage workers and disadvantaged youth in America. In addition, the Great Recession has accelerated the long-term trend toward requiring workers to have a higher skill set to obtain jobs that pay family-supporting wages. The recession also highlighted the fact that workers need both sector- and firm-specific skills as well as connections to employers in order to obtain jobs that pay reasonable wages. However, as middle-skill jobs (e.g., welders, paralegals, radiology technicians, and ...
Journal Article
Did the Fiscal Stimulus Work?
Billions were spent to recover from the Great Recession. How can we know whether taxpayers got a decent bang for the buck? More than seven years after the enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, economists, legislators, and the American people continue to debate the effectiveness of the measure. The largest U.S. fiscal stimulus since the 1930s, the Recovery Act pumped hundreds of billions of dollars of federal spending and tax cuts into the economy in an effort to stem the massive job losses and steep drop in economic output that characterized the Great Recession. The ...
Speech
Economic Fragility: Implications for Recovery from the Pandemic
Clearly a deadly pandemic was bound to badly impact the economy. However, I am sorry to say that the slow build-up of risk in the low-interest-rate environment that preceded the current recession likely will make the economic recovery from the pandemic more difficult.
Speech
Economic Fragility: Implications for Recovery from the Pandemic
President Rosengren’s comments were delivered as part of the Annual Regional and Community Bankers Conference, and were based on a speech he delivered on October 8, 2020 for the Marburg Memorial Lecture, Marquette University Economics Department.
Journal Article
Forecasts Point to Cautious Optimism for Near-term Rebound
Forecasts suggest the economy is on the road to recovery, though it could take a year or more for activity to return to pre-pandemic levels.