Research Spotlight on "Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation." Alex Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova, and John Van Reenen. Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2019, vol. 134, no. 2, pp. 647?713.
The U.S. economic outlook and implications for monetary policy
Remarks at the People?s Bank of China-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Joint Symposium, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
The economic outlook and implications for monetary policy
Remarks before the New York Association for Business Economics, New York City.
The national and regional economy
Remarks at Brooklyn College, Brooklyn, New York
The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth
What happens to the economy when it gets hot outside? Despite long-standing assumptions that economic damage from rising global temperatures would be limited to the agricultural sector or developing economies, this Economic Brief presents evidence that higher summer temperatures hurt a variety of business sectors in the United States
Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States
We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.
Industry clusters and economic development in the Seventh District’s largest cities
In works such as Glaeser (2011) and Porter (1995), prominent economists have suggested that metropolitan areas are the key to economic growth. In this article, we examine the economic development strategies and performance of the largest metropolitan areas in the five states of the Seventh Federal Reserve District? Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The cities, from smallest to largest by metro population, are: Des Moines, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Chicago. Theory suggests that cities that promote industry agglomeration (clusters) should be best positioned for ...
The Global Diffusion of Ideas and Its Impact on Productivity and Growth
Economic growth often comes hand in hand with the growth of trade. However, according to quantitative models that rely on standard static mechanisms, the gains from trade are fairly small. This article introduces a model to study the diffusion of ideas across countries as a means of increasing productivity and provides a quantitative assessment of the role of trade in the transmission of knowledge.
The New Stone Soup
Remarks at the Iveagh House Lecture, Dublin, Ireland, by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February 10, 2020.
Non-linearity in the Inflation-Growth Relationship in Developing Economies: Evidence from a Semiparametric Panel Model
Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is notably lower than the comparable estimate obtained from a threshold model. Our results also suggest that models with restrictive functional form assumptions tend to underestimate marginal effects of inflation on economic growth. We also document significant variation in the effect of inflation on growth ...