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Keywords:demographics 

Report
Accounting for breakout in Britain: The Industrial Revolution through a Malthusian lens

This paper develops a simple dynamic model to examine the breakout from a Malthusian economy to a modern growth regime. It identifies several factors that determine the fastest rate at which the population can grow without engendering declining living standards; this is termed maximum sustainable population growth. We then apply the framework to Britain and find a dramatic increase in sustainable population growth at the time of the Industrial Revolution, well before the beginning of modern levels of income growth. The main contributions to the British breakout were technological improvements ...
Staff Reports , Paper 639

Journal Article
Participatory Budgeting: Enhancing Community Reinvestment through Public Engagement

Community engagement is not an easy task. This is especially true in communities with historically underrepresented and underserved populations who do not feel connected to the planning process. However, some municipalities across the country are finding success through the use of participatory budgeting.
Profitwise , Issue 3 , Pages 25-28

Demographic Trends Are Major Factors in Today’s Weak Labor Force Growth

The size of the US labor force declined by 2.3 million people between December 2019 and December 2021, sparking widespread debate about the underlying factors constraining labor supply. Broadly speaking, changes in the overall size of the labor force come from changes in labor force participation rates (LFPRs), changes in the demographic makeup of the population, and changes in the size of the population. Research has documented the role of changes in LFPRs, especially the jump in the number of retired people (Briggs, 2021; Faria e Castro, 2021; and Kaplan et al., 2021) and the drop in the ...
Cleveland Fed District Data Brief , Paper 20220421

Discussion Paper
Just Released: A Look at Borrowing, Repayment, and Bankruptcy Rates by Age

Household debt balances increased in the third quarter of 2018, a seventeenth consecutive increase. Total debt balances reached $13.51 trillion, a level more than 20 percent above the trough reached in 2013, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. With today’s report we begin publishing a new set of charts that depict debt and repayment outcomes by the age of the borrower. The report and this analysis are based on the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), a 5 percent sample of anonymized Equifax ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181116b

Discussion Paper
Inflation and Japan's Ever-Tightening Labor Market

Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161114

Speech
If we fail to prepare, we prepare to rail: remarks at Council on Foreign Relations, New York City

Remarks at Council on Foreign Relations, New York City.
Speech , Paper 323

Discussion Paper
Population Lost: Puerto Rico's Troubling Out-Migration

For the first time in modern history, Puerto Rico is seeing its population decline. This troubling loss can be traced to an exodus of Puerto Rican citizens to the U.S. mainland, a current that has picked up considerably in recent years as Puerto Rico's economy has deteriorated. Today, fully a third of those born in Puerto Rico now reside on the U.S. mainland. In this post, we examine the recent surge in out-migration that is driving Puerto Rico's population decline (which we delve into in more detail in a recent article in the New York Fed's Current Issues in Economics and Finance series), ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150413

Wealth Gaps between White, Black and Hispanic Families in 2019

Across education, family structure and generations, gaps persist between the wealth of white families and that of Black and Hispanic families.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?

In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, nearly all U.S. states imposed social distancing policies to combat the spread of illness. To the extent that work can be done from home, some workers moved their offices to their abodes. Others, however, are unable to continue working as their usual tasks require a specific location or environment, or involve close proximity to others. Which types of jobs cannot be done from home and which types of jobs require close personal proximity to others? What share of overall U.S. employment falls in these categories? And, given that these jobs will be the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200529b

Report
The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances

This paper develops a tractable two-country model with life-cycle structure to investigate analytically and quantitatively three potential determinants of the U.S. external imbalances in the last three decades: productivity growth, demographic factors, and fiscal policy. The results suggest that (1) productivity growth differentials are the main driving force at high frequencies, (2) the different evolution of demographic factors across countries accounts for a large portion of the long-run trend, and (3) fiscal policy plays, at best, a minor role. The main prediction of the analysis is that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 295

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