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Journal Article
An Analysis of African American Interstate Migration to Iowa

There are many motivations for family moves to other states. New jobs, lower crime rates and better schools are a few. A common rumor in Iowa is that many low-income blacks are relocating to the state from communities in Illinois, Wisconsin and elsewhere to take advantage of the state's generous welfare benefits. This article attempts to explore that assumption by clarifying who is moving to Iowa and why. The conclusion, based on census data and a brief review of the literature, is that although perception belies reality, the reality is more nuanced than one might expect.
Profitwise , Issue 4 , Pages 33-37

Wealth Gaps between White, Black and Hispanic Families in 2019

Across education, family structure and generations, gaps persist between the wealth of white families and that of Black and Hispanic families.
On the Economy

The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances

This paper develops a tractable two-country model with life-cycle structure to investigate analytically and quantitatively three potential determinants of the U.S. external imbalances in the last three decades: productivity growth, demographic factors, and fiscal policy. The results suggest that (1) productivity growth differentials are the main driving force at high frequencies, (2) the different evolution of demographic factors across countries accounts for a large portion of the long-run trend, and (3) fiscal policy plays, at best, a minor role. The main prediction of the analysis is that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 295

Journal Article
Searching for Maximum Employment

How well the economy is progressing toward the Federal Reserve’s goal of maximum employment is reflected in a range of indicators that evolve over time. Beyond the unemployment rate, two key metrics of labor market health are the labor force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio. The aging of the population is reducing the levels of both measures, implying that they are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic highs. However, these two indicators remain well below their demographic trends, and analysis suggests that they will not recover to trend until 2024.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 02 , Pages 06

Journal Article
Participatory Budgeting: Enhancing Community Reinvestment through Public Engagement

Community engagement is not an easy task. This is especially true in communities with historically underrepresented and underserved populations who do not feel connected to the planning process. However, some municipalities across the country are finding success through the use of participatory budgeting.
Profitwise , Issue 3 , Pages 25-28

Journal Article
Demographics, COVID-19 Leave Construction with Tight Labor Supply

Although pandemic-induced material shortages may improve, the construction industry’s labor supply challenge is the result of longer-term demographic issues.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Classifying Worker Types in the U.S. Labor Market

Why some worker types have difficulty finding stable jobs can’t easily be explained by demographic characteristics.
Economic Synopses , Issue 10 , Pages 1-2

Working Paper
From Population Growth to TFP Growth

Using a firm-dynamics model that has been extended to include endogenous growth, we examine how population growth influences total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The most important theoretical result is that the growth rate of surviving old businesses is a "sufficient statistic" to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of population growth on TFP growth. Following that, the model is calibrated for Japan and the United States. The main finding of examining balanced growth paths (BGPs) with various rates of population growth is that the effect on TFP growth is sizable. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-006

Journal Article
At the Richmond Fed: Community Conversations

When Tom Barkin became president of the Richmond Fed in 2018, he made it his goal to spend time in every part of the Fifth District to stay well-informed about its communities. (See "Learning From Our District,") One of the ways the Richmond Fed's research department supports this goal is through an event series known as Community Conversations. These are one- or two-day road trips to visit with business and community leaders and learn about an area's challenges and successes.
Econ Focus , Volume 23 , Issue 2Q , Pages 13

Working Paper
Recent Employment Growth in Cities, Suburbs, and Rural Communities

This paper uses a comprehensive source of yearly data to study private-sector labor demand across US counties during the past five decades. Our focus is on how employment levels and earnings relate to population density—that is, how labor markets in rural areas, suburbs, and cities have fared relative to one another. Three broad lessons emerge. First, the longstanding suburbanization of employment and population in cities with very dense urban cores essentially stopped in the first decade of the 21st century. For cities with less dense cores, however, the decentralization of employment ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-20


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