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Restoring Balance

Remarks at New Jersey City University (delivered via videoconference).

Journal Article
GDP Decline, Inflation Heighten Uncertainty in U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. GDP outlook weakened in the first quarter of 2022 amid higher inflation, but demand remained solid for goods, services and labor.
The Regional Economist

Discussion Paper
What's Behind Firms' Reported Improvements in Meeting Demand?

According to special question results from our most recent monthly business survey, Fifth District firms reported improvement in their ability to meet customer demand compared to earlier in the year. Moreover, the majority of respondents said they expect to fully meet customer demand in the next 12 months. Although firms have continued to take action to boost production, softening demand itself may be another reason for the reported improvements.
Regional Matters

Price Stability: The Foundation for a Strong Economy

Remarks at the University of Puerto Rico – Mayagüez, Mayagüez, Puerto Rico.

Discussion Paper
The Class of 2015 Might Have a Little Better Luck Finding a Good Job

With the college graduation season well under way, a new crop of freshly minted graduates is entering the job market and many bright young minds are hoping to land a good first job. It?'s no wonder if they are approaching the job hunt with some trepidation. For a number of years now, recent college graduates have been struggling to find good jobs. However, the labor market for college graduates is improving. After declining for nearly two years, openings for jobs requiring a college degree have picked up since last summer. Not only has this increase in the demand for educated workers ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150515

Remarks for the Panel Discussion “Why Did We Miscast Inflation?”

Inflation remains too high, and recent data – including several strong labor market indicators, as well as faster than expected retail sales and producer price inflation – all reinforce my view that we have more work to do, to bring inflation down to the 2 percent target. While optimistic there is a path to restoring price stability without a significant downturn, I am also well aware of the many risks and uncertainties, including the risk of a self-fulfilling loss of business and consumer confidence.

Discussion Paper
(Unmet) Credit Demand of American Households

One of the direct effects of the 2008 financial crisis on U.S. households was a sharp tightening of credit. Households that had previously been able to borrow relatively freely through credit cards, home equity loans, or personal loans suddenly found those lines closed off—just when they needed them the most. In recent months, aggregate statistics such as the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit series and the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey have shown a gradual improvement in consumer credit. The former series is an indicator of interaction of credit supply and demand, while the latter ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131106

Journal Article
“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries

The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting suggests that it reflects the strong rebound of the demand for younger and less-educated workers. Historical data on quits in manufacturing suggest that the current wave is not unusual. Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 08 , Pages 06

Journal Article
How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?

Inflation has remained at levels well above the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal of 2% for over a year. Separating the underlying data from the personal consumption expenditures price index into supply- versus demand-driven categories reveals that supply factors explain about half of the run-up in current inflation levels. Demand factors are responsible for about one-third, with the remainder resulting from ambiguous factors. While supply disruptions are widely expected to ease this year, this outcome is highly uncertain.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 15 , Pages 06

Discussion Paper
The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures

U.S. inflation has surged as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 recession. This phenomenon has not been confined to the U.S. economy, as similar inflationary pressures have emerged in other advanced economies albeit not with the same intensity. In this post, we draw from the current international experiences to provide an assessment of the drivers of U.S. inflation. In particular, we exploit the link among different measures of inflation at the country level and a number of global supply side variables to uncover which common cross-country forces have been driving observed inflation. Our ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220128



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