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Keywords:debt 

Working Paper
Domestic bond markets and inflation

This paper explores the relationship between inflation and the existence of a local, nominal, publicly-traded, long-maturity, domestic-currency bond market. Bond holders are exposed to capital losses through inflation and therefore represent a potential anti-inflationary force; we ask whether their influence is apparent both theoretically and empirically. We develop a simple theoretical model with heterogeneous agents where the issuance of such bonds leads to political pressure on the government to choose a lower inflation rate. We then check this prediction empirically using a panel of data, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2015-5

Working Paper
Targeted business incentives and the debt behavior of households

The empirical effects of place-based tax incentive schemes designed to aid low-income communities are unclear. While a growing number of studies find beneficial effects on employment, there is little investigation into other behaviors of households affected by such programs. We analyze the impact of the Texas Enterprise Zone Program on household debt and delinquency. Specifically, we utilize detailed information on all household liabilities, delinquencies, and credit scores from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax, a quarterly longitudinal 5% random sample of ...
Working Papers , Paper 1602

Working Paper
The Rise in Home Currency Issuance

Using a large sample of private international bond issues, we document a substantial decline in the share of international bonds denominated in major reserve currencies over the last two decades, and an increase in bonds denominated in issuers? home currencies. These secular trends appear to have accelerated notably after the global financial crisis. Observed increases in home currency foreign bond issuance was larger in countries with stable inflation and lower government debt, and in emerging markets that adopted explicit inflation targeting policies. We then present a model that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2014-19

Discussion Paper
Just Released: A Look at Borrowing, Repayment, and Bankruptcy Rates by Age

Household debt balances increased in the third quarter of 2018, a seventeenth consecutive increase. Total debt balances reached $13.51 trillion, a level more than 20 percent above the trough reached in 2013, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. With today’s report we begin publishing a new set of charts that depict debt and repayment outcomes by the age of the borrower. The report and this analysis are based on the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), a 5 percent sample of anonymized Equifax ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181116b

Identifying the Most Financially Vulnerable Families

Households with less than two months’ income in liquid assets and those with high debt-to-income ratios face the greatest risk of serious delinquency.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
What Might Happen When Student Loan Forbearance Ends?

Federal student loan relief was recently extended through August 31, 2022, marking the sixth extension during the pandemic. Such debt relief includes the suspension of student loan payments, a waiver of interest, and the stopping of collections activity on defaulted loans. The suspension of student loan payments was expected to help 41 million borrowers save an estimated $5 billion per month. This post is the first in a two-part series exploring the implications and distributional consequences of policies that aim to address the student debt burden. Here, we focus on the uneven consequences ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220421a

Which Families Are Most Vulnerable to an Income Shock? A Look at Race and Ethnicity

While liquid assets, education and other factors are associated with how economically resilient families may be during a crisis, race and ethnicity are also related.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis

Lending standards are a direct measure of credit conditions. We use the micro data merged from three separate sources to construct this measure and document that an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, rather than banks' balance sheet positions, was an important reason that a majority of banks tightened bank lending standards during the Great Recession. Our extensive data analysis disciplines how we introduce credit frictions in the banking sector into a macroeconomic model. The model estimation reveals that an exogenous shock to credit supply drives cyclical lending standards and accounts for a ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2020-6

Journal Article
Risk of Business Insolvency during Coronavirus Crisis

Many businesses had amassed high levels of debt, or leverage, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of precaution or necessity, firms increased their borrowing further after the onset. Although the shock to those firms’ value significantly increased their risk, measured by their distance-to-default, the default risk remains relatively small for most corporate debt. Nevertheless, the amount of outstanding liabilities among firms with elevated risk of insolvency is more than two times higher than at the peak of the global financial crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 30 , Pages 01-05

Journal Article
When Nations Don't Pay Their Debts

Features article: When Nations Don't Pay Their Debts: What happens when countries can't or won't repay
Econ Focus , Issue 3Q , Pages 11-14

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