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Keywords:credit spreads 

Working Paper
What Drives the Cross-Section of Credit Spreads?: A Variance Decomposition Approach

I decompose the cross-sectional variation of the credit spreads for corporate bonds into changing expected returns and changing expectation of credit losses with a model-free method. Using a log-linearized pricing identity and a vector autoregression applied to micro-level data from 1973 to 2011, I find that the expected credit loss component and the excess return component each explains about half of the variance of the credit spreads. Unlike the market-level findings in Gilchrist and Zakrajsek (2012), at the firm level, the expected credit loss is volatile and affects the firms' investment ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-62

The Comovement between Credit Spreads, Corporate Debt and Liquid Assets in Recent Crises

Credit spreads rose sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. But their movement with corporate debt and liquid assets differed during those two periods.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises

We compare firms’ financials during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. While the two crises featured similar increases in credit spreads, debt and liquid assets decreased during the GFC but increased during COVID-19. In the cross-section, leverage was the primary determinant of credit spreads and investment during the GFC, but liquidity was more important during COVID-19. We augment a quantitative model of firm capital structure with a motive to hold liquid assets. The GFC resembled a combination of real and financial shocks, while COVID-19 also featured liquidity shocks. We ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

Working Paper
Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises

We compare firms’ financials during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. While the two crises featured similar increases in credit spreads, debt and liquid assets decreased during the GFC but increased during COVID-19. In the cross-section, leverage was the primary determinant of credit spreads and investment during the GFC, but liquidity was more important during COVID-19. We augment a quantitative model of firm capital structure with a motive to hold liquid assets. The GFC resembled a combination of real and financial shocks, while COVID-19 also featured liquidity shocks. We ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

Working Paper
Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier

Financial markets play an important role in generating monetary policy transmission asymmetries in the US. Credit spreads only adjust to unexpected increases in interest rates, causing output and prices to respond more to a monetary tightening than to an expansion. At a one year horizon, the ‘financial multiplier’ of monetary policy—defined as the ratio between the cumulative responses of employment and credit spreads—is zero for a monetary expansion, -2 for a monetary tightening, and -4 for a monetary tightening that takes place under strained credit market conditions. These results ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-14

Working Paper
Firm Financial Conditions and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

We study how the transmission of monetary policy to firms' investment and credit spreads depends on their financial conditions, finding a major role for their excess bond premia (EBPs), the component of credit spreads in excess of default risk. While monetary policy easing shocks compress credit spreads more for firms with higher ex-ante EBPs, it is lower-EBP firms that invest more. We rationalize these findings using a model with financial frictions in which lower-EBP firms have flatter marginal product of capital curves. We also show empirically that the cross-sectional distribution of firm ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-037

Working Paper
Fintech Lending: Financial Inclusion, Risk Pricing, and Alternative Information

Fintech has been playing an increasing role in shaping financial and banking landscapes. Banks have been concerned about the uneven playing field because fintech lenders are not subject to the same rigorous oversight. There have also been concerns about the use of alternative data sources by fintech lenders and the impact on financial inclusion. In this paper, we explore the advantages/disadvantages of loans made by a large fintech lender and similar loans that were originated through traditional banking channels. Specifically, we use account-level data from the Lending Club and Y-14M bank ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-17

Credit Spreads during the Financial Crisis and COVID-19

Corporate bond credit spreads widened during both the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. How did spreads respond to policy actions?
On the Economy

Speech
The importance of financial conditions in the conduct of monetary policy: remarks at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, Sarasota, Florida

Remarks at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, Sarasota, Florida.
Speech , Paper 239

Working Paper
Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises

We compare firms’ financials during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. While the two crises featured similar increases in credit spreads, debt and liquid assets decreased during the GFC but increased during COVID-19. In the cross-section, leverage was the primary determinant of credit spreads and investment during the GFC, but liquidity was more important during COVID-19. We augment a quantitative model of firm capital structure with a motive to hold liquid assets. The GFC resembled a combination of productivity and financial shocks, while COVID-19 also featured liquidity ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

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