Just Released: More Credit Cards, Higher Limits, and . . . an Uptick in Delinquency
Today the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the second quarter of 2017. Overall debt balances increased in the period, continuing their moderate growth since 2013. Nearly all types of balances grew, with mortgages and auto loans rising by $64 billion and $23 billion, respectively. Credit card balances increased by $20 billion, recovering from the typical seasonal first-quarter decline. The overall balance surpassed its previous peak in the first quarter. We wrote here about how the new peak poses little concern in and ...
Does CFPB oversight crimp credit?
We study the effects of regulatory oversight by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on credit supply as well as bank risk-taking, growth, and operating costs. We use a difference-in-differences approach, making use of the fact that banks below a $10 billion size cutoff are exempt from CFPB supervision and enforcement activities. We find little evidence that CFPB oversight significantly reduces the overall volume of mortgage lending. However, we find some evidence of changes in the composition of lending?CFPB-supervised banks originated fewer loans to risky borrowers, offset by an ...
Addressing the Economic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Today, we’re witnessing the pandemic’s stark effects on public health. Meanwhile, the necessary response – social distancing – has stilled our strong economy, disrupting countless lives and livelihoods. It’s also been distorting the credit and liquidity flows that underpin our economy, threatening the greater pain of a full-blown financial crisis. Traditional economic models are challenged by this unique situation. To me, the most important factors are how well we avoid financial spillovers, and how effective the fiscal stimulus is, as well as the progression of COVID-19 infections. ...
Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment
We develop a two-sector search-matching model of the labor market with imperfect mobility of workers, augmented to incorporate a housing market and a frictional goods market. Homeowners use home equity as collateral to finance idiosyncratic consumption opportunities. A financial innovation that raises the acceptability of homes as collateral raises house prices and reduces unemployment. It also triggers a reallocation of workers, with the direction of the change depending on firms? market power in the goods market. A calibrated version of the model under adaptive learning can account for ...
A Time for Bold Action
Remarks at Economic Club of New York (delivered via videoconference).
New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit & Payments Conference, Philadelphia, PA
Consumption, credit, and the missing young
There are more young adults today with either no credit history or insufficient credit history to be scored by one of the major credit bureaus than there were before the Great Recession ? a reality that is likely an unintended outcome of the CARD Act of 2009. In regressions that include a rich set of controls, this paper shows that measures of young adults missing from credit bureau data act as a drag on state-level consumption growth. This finding seems to be driven by young individuals from more disadvantaged backgrounds having less access to credit since the act went into effect.
The Fed’s Emergency Facilities: Usage, Impact, and Early Lessons
Remarks at Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress (delivered via videoconference).
Rising to the Challenge: Central Banking, Financial Markets, and the Pandemic
Remarks at the 16th Meeting of the Financial Research Advisory Committee for the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research (delivered via videoconference).
Just Released: Who's Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless!
According to today’s release of the New York Fed’s 2013:Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report, aggregate consumer debt increased by $241 billion in the fourth quarter, the largest quarter-to-quarter increase since 2007. More importantly, between 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q4, total household debt rose $180 billion, marking the first four-quarter increase in outstanding debt since 2008. As net household borrowing resumes, it is interesting to see who is driving these balance changes, and to compare some of today’s patterns with those of the boom period.