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Journal Article
Breakeven Employment Growth
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Stewart, Stephanie (2024-07-08)
Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises the question of whether the “breakeven” employment growth rate has changed. In the short-run, recent surges in immigration and labor force participation have caused the current breakeven employment growth rate to rise as high as 230,000 jobs per month. However, the long-run breakeven employment growth rate appears unchanged, ranging around 70,000 to 90,000 jobs per month.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 18 , Pages 5

Speech
What the Moment Demands
Daly, Mary C. (2023-11-17)
Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 33rd Frankfurt European Banking Congress, Frankfurt, Germany, November 17, 2023, 3:30 PM CET (local), 6:30 AM PST
Speech

Journal Article
The Rise and Fall of Pandemic Excess Wealth
Abdelrahman, Hamza; Oliveira, Luiz E.; Shapiro, Adam Hale (2024-02-26)
U.S. households accumulated significantly more wealth following the pandemic onset than would have been expected without the pandemic shock. Overall excess household wealth—measured as households’ inflation-adjusted net worth beyond pre-pandemic projections—peaked in late 2021 at $13 trillion, then rapidly fell to zero in late 2022, where it broadly remained through the third quarter of 2023. This rise and fall can be attributed mainly to financial assets, particularly equity holdings. Similarly, real liquid asset holdings currently sit below pre-pandemic projections despite a ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 06 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Productivity in the World Economy During and After the Pandemic
Li, Huiyu; Fernald, John G. (2023-09-28)
This paper reviews how productivity has evolved around the world since the pandemic began in 2020. Productivity in many countries has been volatile. We conclude that the broad contours of productivity growth during this period have been heavily shaped by predictable cyclical patterns. Looking at U.S. industry data, we find little evidence that the sharp rise in telework has had a notable impact, good or bad, on productivity. Stepping back, the data so far appear consistent with a continuation of the slow-productivity-growth trajectory that we faced before the pandemic.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-29

Journal Article
Assessing the Durability of COVID-Era Capacity Gains Among Community-Based Organizations: Lessons from the Emergency Rental Assistance Program
Kneebone, Elizabeth (2024-02-12)
To better understand the impact of the Emergency Rental Assistance Program’s conclusion on community-based organizations and on their scope and scale of work after ERAP, this brief draws on interviews conducted with practitioners involved with nearly two dozen ERA programs across the country. These interviews help shed light on how the dwindling and, in many cases, cessation of ERAP funds is affecting organizations’ capacity along multiple dimensions as they scale back, reorient, and move on post ERAP.
Community Development Research Brief , Volume 2024 , Issue 01 , Pages 21

Journal Article
Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance
Daly, Mary C. (2022-06-28)
Bringing inflation down is the Federal Reserve’s number one priority. The goal is to do that without crippling growth and stalling the labor market. This will not be easy, but the economy and the Fed’s policy toolkit have both evolved, which will help for meeting those goals.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 17 , Pages 07

Journal Article
Are Inflation Expectations Well Anchored in Mexico?
Beauregard, Remy; Christensen, Jens H. E.; Fischer, Eric; Zhu, Simon (2023-01-17)
Price inflation has increased sharply since early 2021 in many countries, including Mexico. If sustained, high inflation in Mexico could raise questions about the ability of its central bank to bring inflation down to its 3% inflation target. However, analyzing the difference between market prices of nominal and inflation-indexed government bonds suggests investors’ long-term inflation expectations in Mexico are close to the central bank’s inflation target and are projected to remain so in coming years.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 01 , Pages 6

Journal Article
Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
Jordà, Òscar; Liu, Celeste; Nechio, Fernanda; Rivera-Reyes, Fabián (2022-03-28)
Inflation rates in the United States and other developed economies have closely tracked each other historically. Problems with global supply chains and changes in spending patterns due to the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed up inflation worldwide. However, since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries. Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic’s economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 07 , Pages 06

Journal Article
To Retire or Keep Working after a Pandemic?
Miskanic, Brandon E.; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Zhao, Cindy (2024-03-25)
Workers age 55 and older left the labor force in large numbers following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, participation within this age group has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite the strongest labor market in decades. This has resulted in an estimated shortfall of nearly 2 million workers. Analysis shows that the participation shortfall is concentrated among workers in this age group without a college degree and can be explained by increased and growing retirement rates for this group, above pre-pandemic trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 08 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation
Liu, Zheng; Nguyen, Thuy Lan (2023-06-20)
Global supply chain disruptions following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the rapid rise in U.S. inflation over the past two years. Evidence suggests that supply chain pressures pushed up the cost of inputs for goods production and the public’s expectations of higher future prices. These factors accounted for about 60% of the surge in U.S. inflation beginning in early 2021. Supply chain pressures began easing substantially in mid-2022, contributing to the slowdown in inflation.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 14 , Pages 6

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