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Journal Article
Steering Toward Sustainable Growth

The inflation outlook combined with a strong labor market leave no doubt that further monetary policy tightening is appropriate. The question is, how much and how quickly? The appropriate path of policy confronts the economic headwinds immediately ahead while also laying the groundwork for the economy we want in the future. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Center for Business and Economic Research, at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 10 , Pages 6

Working Paper
Productivity in the World Economy During and After the Pandemic

This paper reviews how productivity has evolved around the world since the pandemic began in 2020. Productivity in many countries has been volatile. We conclude that the broad contours of productivity growth during this period have been heavily shaped by predictable cyclical patterns. Looking at U.S. industry data, we find little evidence that the sharp rise in telework has had a notable impact, good or bad, on productivity. Stepping back, the data so far appear consistent with a continuation of the slow-productivity-growth trajectory that we faced before the pandemic.
Working Paper Series , Paper 2023-29

Journal Article
Pandemic Unemployment Effects across Demographic Groups

Workers in service industries and occupations with a lot of close social contact suffered the highest job losses during the pandemic recession. This differed from previous downturns, which tended to have their most severe effects on industries with high concentrations of manual labor. As a result, the unemployment impact of the pandemic on different demographic groups has not followed historical patterns, particularly for Asian, Black, and female workers. The unemployment gap between these racial groups has not been as wide as previous economic fluctuations would have predicted.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 12 , Pages 05

Journal Article
Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance

Bringing inflation down is the Federal Reserve’s number one priority. The goal is to do that without crippling growth and stalling the labor market. This will not be easy, but the economy and the Fed’s policy toolkit have both evolved, which will help for meeting those goals.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2022 , Issue 17 , Pages 07

Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance

Presentation at Shadow Open Market Committee Conference, Chapman University, Orange, CA, June 24, 2022, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Journal Article
Assessing the Durability of COVID-Era Capacity Gains Among Community-Based Organizations: Lessons from the Emergency Rental Assistance Program

To better understand the impact of the Emergency Rental Assistance Program’s conclusion on community-based organizations and on their scope and scale of work after ERAP, this brief draws on interviews conducted with practitioners involved with nearly two dozen ERA programs across the country. These interviews help shed light on how the dwindling and, in many cases, cessation of ERAP funds is affecting organizations’ capacity along multiple dimensions as they scale back, reorient, and move on post ERAP.
Community Development Research Brief , Volume 2024 , Issue 01 , Pages 21

Journal Article
To Retire or Keep Working after a Pandemic?

Workers age 55 and older left the labor force in large numbers following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, participation within this age group has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, despite the strongest labor market in decades. This has resulted in an estimated shortfall of nearly 2 million workers. Analysis shows that the participation shortfall is concentrated among workers in this age group without a college degree and can be explained by increased and growing retirement rates for this group, above pre-pandemic trends.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 08 , Pages 5

Working Paper
The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds

The so-called equilibrium or natural rate of interest, widely known as r*t, is a key variable used to judge the stance of monetary policy. We offer a novel euro-area estimate based on a dynamic term structure model estimated directly on the prices of bonds with cash flows indexed to the euro-area harmonized index of consumer prices with adjustments for bond-specific risk and real term premia. Despite a recent increase, our estimate indicates that the natural rate in the euro area has fallen about 2 percentage points on net since 2002 and remains negative at the end of our sample. We also ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2024-08

Journal Article
Comparing Pandemic Unemployment to Past U.S. Recoveries

Unemployment fell at a slow and steady rate in the 10 cyclical recoveries from 1949 through 2019. These historical patterns also apply to the recovery from the pandemic recession after accounting for the unprecedented burst of temporary layoffs early in the pandemic followed by their rapid reversal from April to November 2020. Unemployment for other reasons—which has been most important in other recent recoveries—did not start declining until November 2020. Since then, unemployment for other reasons has declined at a faster pace than its historical average.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 33 , Pages 05

Journal Article
Lessons Learned from Small Business Lending During COVID-19: A Case Study of the California Rebuilding Fund

As the COVID-19 pandemic forced California businesses to shut down in March 2020, the fate of small businesses, which often had fewer reserves to draw upon when trying to survive the shutdowns, became particularly concerning. Federal aid measures, including the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), brought relief to many business owners, but their deployment also confirmed what many small business advocates feared: business owners in the most vulnerable communities and underrepresented business owners often struggled to obtain assistance. At the same time, small business lending capital dried ...
Community Development Research Brief , Volume 2022 , Issue 03 , Pages 38



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