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Keywords:covid19 

Journal Article
Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s?

The American Rescue Plan provided fiscal support during a strong economic rebound, raising concerns about the risk of fueling inflation. One way to assess this risk of economic overheating uses the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, which measures labor market slack more accurately and, hence, can predict future inflation better than the unemployment rate alone. Estimates suggest that the fiscal plan acts to temporarily raise the vacancy-to- unemployment ratio, in turn pushing up inflation by about 0.3 percentage point per year through 2022.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 27 , Pages 06

Journal Article
Employment Effects of COVID-19 across States, Sectors

The COVID-19 pandemic generated sharp losses in employment in early 2020, followed by a partial but incomplete recovery that continues to this day. The effects on employment in business sectors that produce goods and those that provide services varied substantially across states. This was the case during both the initial drop and the subsequent recovery. The extent of the cross-state variation and how the variation has evolved over time has been unlike any past recessions, making the pandemic recession and recovery unprecedented in both its severity and its uneven impact.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 32 , Pages 05

Journal Article
Policymaking in a Time of Uncertainty

The impact of COVID and its ongoing threat continue to disrupt and delay the full recovery of the economy. It is tempting to act now, believing that what we see today are clear signals. However, acting without clarity is risky. In the face of unprecedented uncertainty caused by the long tail of the pandemic, the best policy is recognizing the need to wait. The following is adapted from remarks by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to The Commonwealth Club of California on November 16.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 31 , Pages 06

Journal Article
How Strongly Are Local Economies Tied to COVID-19?

The relationship between economic activity and local COVID-19 conditions—infections and deaths—has changed over time. While activity was strongly tied to local virus conditions during the first six to nine months of the pandemic, they decoupled in late 2020 through the first half of 2021. This link strengthened again in the third quarter of 2021, particularly for highly vaccinated counties. One possible interpretation of this restrengthening is that areas with high vaccination rates have heightened virus risk aversion and hence high sensitivity to changes in local virus conditions.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 30 , Pages 5

Speech
Policymaking in a Time of Uncertainty

Presentation to The Commonwealth Club of California, San Francisco, CA, November 16, 2021, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Speech

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