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Which Workers Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic?
Amburgey, Aaron; Birinci, Serdar (2020-07-30)
Occupations that earn less than $34,963 on average—such as cashiers, servers and janitors—accounted for 34% of the increase in unemployment from January to April.
On the Economy

A Look at the Fed’s Emergency Lending Programs
Neely, Christopher J. (2020-12-22)
The Federal Reserve launched an alphabet soup of programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon (2020-09-02)
This paper develops a quantitative life cycle model in which economic decisions impact the spread of COVID-19 and, conversely, the virus affects economic decisions. The calibrated model is used to measure the welfare costs of the pandemic across the age, income and wealth distribution and to study the effectiveness of various mitigation policies. In the absence of mitigation, young workers engage in too much economic activity relative to the social optimum, leading to higher rates of infection and death in the aggregate. The paper considers a subsidy-and-tax policy that imposes a tax on ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 400

Journal Article
The Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-03-30)
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, has severely disrupted economic activity through various supply and demand channels. The pandemic can also have pervasive economic impact by raising uncertainty. In the past, sudden and outsized spikes in uncertainty have led to large and protracted increases in unemployment and declines in inflation. These effects are similar to those resulting from declines in aggregate demand. Monetary policy accommodation, such as interest rate cuts, can help cushion the economy from such uncertainty shocks.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 07 , Pages 05

Discussion Paper
COVID-19, Workers, and Policy
Andreason, Stuart (2020-03-18)
As coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) spreads around the world and across the United States, many policymakers and public health officials are encouraging employers to tell workers to work remotely or to stay home when they or their family members are sick. There are significant questions, though, about how many people can work from home. Many U.S. workers in retail, restaurants, manufacturing, and other occupations cannot do so. This Workforce Currents post will explore who can work from home and identify practices and policies to support workers who cannot work from home in the event of a pandemic ...
Workforce Currents , Paper 2020-02

Report
How Deadly is COVID-19? Understanding the Difficulties with Estimation of its Fatality Rate
Atkeson, Andrew (2020-03-31)
To understand how best to combat COVID-19, we must understand how deadly is the disease. There is a substantial debate in the epidemiological literature as to whether the fatality rate is 1% or 0.1% or somewhere in between. In this note, I use an SIR model to examine why it is difficult to estimate the fatality rate from the disease and how long we might have to wait to resolve this question absent a large-scale randomized testing program. I focus on uncertainty over the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases at the start of the epidemic around January ...
Staff Report , Paper 598

Discussion Paper
Businesses in the Tri-State Region Struggling to Weather the Coronavirus Outbreak
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard; Bram, Jason (2020-03-30)
As a result of the coronavirus outbreak, New York State, New Jersey, and Connecticut have closed nonessential businesses and schools and asked residents to stay home in an effort to slow the spread of the virus. These actions are unprecedented, and the economic impacts are likely to be temporary but severe, and difficult to track and measure. With conditions changing so rapidly, timely data on the economic impacts of the outbreak and resultant policies on businesses and people are both scarce and important. In this post, we provide some very recent information on the economic effects of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200330a

Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon (2020-10-23)
This paper develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent–life cycle model with a fully integrated epidemiological model in which economic decisions affect the spread of COVID-19 and, conversely, the virus affects economic decisions. The calibrated model is used to study the distributional consequences and effectiveness of two mitigation policies: a stay-at-home subsidy that subsidizes reduced hours worked and a stay-at-home order that limits outside hours. First, the stay-at-home subsidy is preferred because it reduces deaths by more and output by less, leading to a larger average welfare ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 400

Newsletter
Chicago Fed: How does social distancing affect the spread of Covid-19 in the United States?
Mazumder, Bhashkar; Moorthy, Avinash (2020-06-16)
In recent weeks the country has begun to ease restrictions put in place to counter the Covid-19 pandemic. Consequently, it is important for policymakers and the public to understand the extent to which increasing levels of mobility among the population may lead to a rise in the spread of the disease.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 442 , Pages 5

Discussion Paper
Securing Secured Finance: The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility
Sarkar, Asani; Caviness, Elizabeth (2020-08-07)
The asset-backed securities (ABS) market, by supporting loans to households and businesses such as credit card and student loans, is essential to the flow of credit in the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this market, resulting in higher interest rate spreads on ABS and halting the issuance of most ABS asset classes. On March 23, 2020, the Fed established the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to facilitate the issuance of ABS backed by a variety of loan types including student loans, credit card loans, and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA), ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200807

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