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Speech
U.S. Economic Outlook
Moskow, Michael H. (2007-02-16)
Remarks by Michael H. Moskow President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. University Club of Chicago - Learn at Lunch Lecture - 76 E. Monroe St., Chicago, IL. A speech delivered on February 16, 2007 in Chicago, Illinois.
Speech , Paper 7

Working Paper
Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery
Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-06-17)
Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a structural macroeconomic VAR model facilitates the identification of shocks to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2108

Working Paper
A concise test of rational consumer search
Sorensen, Bent E.; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Lee, Chloe (2018-06-18)
A simple model of time allocation between work and price-search predicts that consumers spend relatively more time searching for better prices for goods of which they consume relatively more. Using scanner data, we confirm empirically that consumers pay lower (higher) prices for goods that they buy more (less) of than other consumers. Our results are conservative, because we compare goods that are defined as narrowly as possible by UPC codes, and provide a lower bound for the savings obtained from bargain hunting.
Working Papers , Paper 18-4

Discussion Paper
Recycling Oil Revenue
Klitgaard, Thomas; Fosco, Michael (2018-05-14)
Almost half the U.S. merchandise trade deficit was tied to petroleum ten years ago. Oil prices were above $100 a barrel, the economy was doing well enough that oil consumption was growing despite high oil prices, and domestic oil production was falling. The U.S. petroleum trade balance has since narrowed substantially from $400 billion in 2008 to under $65 billion in 2017 as a result of lower oil prices, higher domestic production, and a prolonged period of flat-to-falling petroleum consumption. Going forward, the changes in domestic production and consumption have significantly moderated the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20180514

Report
What would you do with $500? Spending responses to gains, losses, news, and loans
Kaplan, Greg; Fuster, Andreas; Zafar, Basit (2018-03-01)
We use survey questions about spending to investigate features of propensities to consume that are useful for distinguishing between consumption theories. Asking households about their intended spending under various scenarios, we find that 1) responses to unanticipated gains are vastly heterogeneous (either zero or substantially positive), 2) responses to losses are much larger and more widespread than responses to gains, and 3) even those with large responses to gains do not respond to news about future gains. These three findings suggest that limited access to disposable resources is an ...
Staff Reports , Paper 843

Working Paper
Consumption Heterogeneity by Occupation: Understanding the Impact of Occupation on Personal Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Cotton, Christopher D.; Garga, Vaishali; Rohan, Justin (2020-12-01)
This paper exploits the variation in the unemployment rate of different occupations in the first part of the COVID-19 pandemic to analyze the response of consumption spending to unemployment risk. We find that earlier in the pandemic, higher unemployment risk did not reduce relative spending. However, as the pandemic proceeded, higher unemployment risk reduced relative spending. This pattern held across both essential and nonessential spending categories. We find that “high-risk” occupations had three common characteristics: lower ability to be performed from home, higher physical ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-16

Working Paper
Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment
Gibson, Matthew; Fried, Stephie; Casey, Gregory (2022-10-04)
Existing climate-economy models use aggregate damage functions to model the effects of climate change. This approach assumes climate change has equal impacts on the productivity of firms that produce consumption and investment goods or services. We show the split between damage to consumption and investment productivity matters for the dynamic consequences of climate change. Drawing on the structural transformation literature, we develop a framework that incorporates heterogeneous climate damages. When investment is more vulnerable to climate, we find short-run consumption losses will be ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2022-21

Working Paper
Labor-Market Wedge under Engel Curve Utility: Cyclical Substitution between Necessities and Luxuries
Chang, Yongsung; Karabarbounis, Marios; Hornstein, Andreas (2018-07-19)
In booms, households substitute luxuries for necessities, e.g., food away from home for food at home. Ignoring this cyclical pattern of composition changes in the consumption basket makes the labor-market wedge -- a measure of inefficiency that reflects the gap between the marginal rate of substitution and the real wage -- appear to be more volatile than it actually is. Based on the household expenditure pattern across 10 consumption categories in the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we show that taking into account these composition changes can explain 6-15% of the cyclicality in the measured ...
Working Paper , Paper 18-13

Working Paper
Family Job Search and Wealth: The Added Worker Effect Revisited
Garcia-Perez, J. Ignacio; Rendon, Sílvio (2020-04-30)
We propose and estimate a model of family job search and wealth accumulation with data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). This dataset reveals a very asymmetric labor market for household members who share that their job finding is stimulated by their partners' job separation. We uncover a job search-theoretic basis for this added worker effect, which occurs mainly during economic downturns, but also by increased non-employment transfers. Thus, our analysis shows that the policy goal of in-creasing non-employment transfers to support a worker's job search is partially ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-17

Working Paper
The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters
Athreya, Kartik B.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Sanchez, Juan M. (2022-09-14)
When a macroeconomic shock arrives, variation in household balance-sheet health (captured by the presence of financial distress "FD"), leads to differential access to credit, and hence a distribution of consumption responses. As we document, though, over the past two recessions, households in prior FD also experienced macroeconomic shocks more intensely than others, leading to a distribution of shock severity. Thus, quantifying the importance of both dimensions of heterogeneity (FD or shock-severity) for consumption requires a structural model. We find that heterogeneity in FD matters more ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-025

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