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Keywords:commercial real estate 

Journal Article
Flexibility and Conversions in New York City's Housing Stock: Building for an Era of Rapid Change

Post-COVID, New York City faces reduced demand for commercial space in its central business districts, even as residential demand is resurgent. Just as in past eras of New York’s history, conversion of commercial spaces into housing may help the city adapt to these new market conditions and provide an additional pathway for producing badly needed housing. If 10 percent of office and hotel spaces were converted to residential use, around 75,000 homes would be created, concentrated in Midtown Manhattan. However, there are considerable obstacles to such conversions, including a slew of ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 29 , Issue 2 , Pages 53-74

Journal Article
“Stress Testing” Banks on Commercial Real Estate

Recent research tests the effects of a large (hypothetical) drop in commercial real estate prices: Banks most affected would be small and the resulting noncompliance would apply to a small fraction of assets in the US banking system.
Economic Synopses , Issue 26 , Pages 3 pages

Briefing
Understanding the Surge in Commercial Real Estate Lending

U.S. banks have increased their commercial real estate (CRE) lending significantly in the past five years. Economists and regulators note that some positive factors are driving this trend, but they also see potential risks. Analysts at the Richmond Fed have found that some banks could be especially vulnerable if economic conditions deteriorate. These include institutions that are in certain major urban areas and have high concentrations of CRE loans, rapid CRE loan growth, and heavy reliance on "noncore" (or illiquid) funding. But the analysts also conclude that, overall, banks' CRE exposures ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue August

Working Paper
Lease Expirations and CRE Property Performance

This study analyzes how lease expirations affect the performance of commercial real estate (CRE) properties and how these patterns changed during the COVID-19 crisis. Even before the pandemic, lease expirations were associated with a notable increase in the downside risk to a property’s occupancy or income, particularly in weaker property markets. These risks became more pronounced during the pandemic, driven mostly by office properties. During the pandemic, the adverse effect of lease expirations on office occupancy increased more than 50 percent overall, and it doubled for offices in ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-10

Speech
Assessing economic conditions and risks to financial stability: remarks at the Stern School of Business, Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions, New York University, New York, New York, September 20, 2019

The stance of policy is already accommodative. The economic data suggest continued expansion. Risks to the economic outlook are of concern, to be sure. Responding to risks to the economic outlook with too much monetary accommodation entails costs, and thus introduces risks of its own ? one such risk is the potential buildup of financial instability.
Speech , Paper 149

Speech
Economic Fragility: Implications for Recovery from the Pandemic

Clearly a deadly pandemic was bound to badly impact the economy. However, I am sorry to say that the slow build-up of risk in the low-interest-rate environment that preceded the current recession likely will make the economic recovery from the pandemic more difficult.
Speech

Speech
Economic Fragility: Implications for Recovery from the Pandemic

President Rosengren’s comments were delivered as part of the Annual Regional and Community Bankers Conference, and were based on a speech he delivered on October 8, 2020 for the Marburg Memorial Lecture, Marquette University Economics Department.
Speech

Working Paper
Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market

Banks modify more CRE loans than CMBS, contributing to better loan performance when property incomes decline. However, banks have higher delinquency rates for less-stressed loans, consistent with modification policies encouraging strategic default. Motivated by these facts, we develop a tradeoff theory model in which lenders vary in their modification technologies. Modification frictions discourage strategic renegotiation, enabling CMBS to offer higher LTV loans and attract borrowers seeking higher leverage. The model produces cross-lender differences in LTVs and spreads consistent with the ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-09

Report
Financing Constraints and Maintenance Investments: Evidence from Apartments

This paper studies whether renters bear the costs of building financing constraints in the form of reduced maintenance. Using a novel data set combining housing code violations from forty-five U.S. cities with apartment financing information, I show more financially constrained buildings incur more code violations. I then exploit a natural experiment, effectively reducing financial resources for some New York City rent-stabilized buildings. Following the shock, code violations increase for affected buildings relative to controls, and the effect is concentrated among more financially ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1000

Working Paper
Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans

We study the role that recourse plays in the commercial real estate loan contracts of the largest U.S. banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders and is treated as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans have rate spreads that are at least 20 basis points lower and loan-to-value ratios that are around 3 percentage points higher than non-recourse loans. Dynamically, recourse affects loan modification negotiations by providing additional bargaining power to the lender. Recourse loans were half as likely to receive accommodation during the COVID-19 pandemic, ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-20

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