Search Results
Working Paper
On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags
We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long—about 1.5 years—and highly variable, (2) roughly 40 percent of projects are abandoned in planning, and (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We construct a model with endogenous planning starts and abandonment that matches these facts. The model has the testable implication that supply is more elastic when there are more "shovel ready" projects available to advance to construction. We use local projections to ...
Speech
Assessing economic conditions and risks to financial stability: remarks at the Stern School of Business, Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions, New York University, New York, New York, September 20, 2019
The stance of policy is already accommodative. The economic data suggest continued expansion. Risks to the economic outlook are of concern, to be sure. Responding to risks to the economic outlook with too much monetary accommodation entails costs, and thus introduces risks of its own ? one such risk is the potential buildup of financial instability.
Journal Article
Opinion: Banks and the Commercial Real Estate Challenge
Even though years have passed since the major disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, it's clear that demand has been hard hit for some types of commercial real estate — especially downtown office buildings. Researchers at the Richmond Fed surveyed employers in March and found that more than a third expect employees to be on site three days a week or fewer. Asset values have adjusted accordingly to this change in demand. One measure of these price declines comes from publicly traded office real estate investment trusts (REITs), where values have fallen by more than 30 percent since early 2022.
Working Paper
Debt Overhang and the Retail Apocalypse
Debt overhang is central for theories of capital structure, yet credible empirical estimates of its effects remain elusive. We study the consequences and mechanisms of debt overhang using exogenous changes in the leverage of commercial retail properties. Identification comes from changes in property values occurring after pre-determined debt rollover dates. We show that debt reduces profitability by impairing property owners' response to negative shocks, reducing the business activity of their remaining retail tenants. For the median property, a 10 percentage point leverage increase causes ...
Briefing
Understanding the Surge in Commercial Real Estate Lending
U.S. banks have increased their commercial real estate (CRE) lending significantly in the past five years. Economists and regulators note that some positive factors are driving this trend, but they also see potential risks. Analysts at the Richmond Fed have found that some banks could be especially vulnerable if economic conditions deteriorate. These include institutions that are in certain major urban areas and have high concentrations of CRE loans, rapid CRE loan growth, and heavy reliance on "noncore" (or illiquid) funding. But the analysts also conclude that, overall, banks' CRE exposures ...
Journal Article
Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Risks Are Uneven
Investors have been acutely attuned to commercial real estate (CRE) risks recently due to higher interest rates and changes in how Americans work. On the surface, these risks may seem particularly concerning for small and regional banks, which tend to hold large concentrations of loans backed by commercial properties. However, we show that CRE risks can vary substantially across property types and geographic locations, suggesting that aggregate CRE exposure may be a poor measure of risk.
Journal Article
Commercial Real Estate: Where Are the Financial Risks?
Large banks, with assets over $100 billion, tend to have significantly lower exposure to commercial real estate market risks than the average commercial bank in the US.
Commercial Real Estate Market Stress Poses a Challenge to Banks
Remote work, higher interest rates and other factors have made commercial real estate lending more challenging for banks, particularly community banks.
Working Paper
Lease Expirations and CRE Property Performance
This study analyzes how lease expirations affect the performance of commercial real estate (CRE) properties and how these patterns changed during the COVID-19 crisis. Even before the pandemic, lease expirations were associated with a notable increase in the downside risk to a property’s occupancy or income, particularly in weaker property markets. These risks became more pronounced during the pandemic, driven mostly by office properties. During the pandemic, the adverse effect of lease expirations on office occupancy increased more than 50 percent overall, and it doubled for offices in ...
Banking Analytics: Commercial Real Estate Loan Growth Slows to 11-Year Low
An analysis of call report data shows that quarterly growth in commercial real estate loan volumes at U.S. banks slowed throughout 2024.