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Working Paper
Automation, Bargaining Power, and Labor Market Fluctuations
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2022-05-18)
We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a quantitative business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions and estimated to fit U.S. time series. In the model, procyclical automation threats create real wage rigidity that amplify labor market fluctuations. We find that this automation mechanism is quantitatively important for explaining the large volatilities of unemployment and vacancies ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-17

Report
Grown-up business cycles
Sahin, Aysegul; Pugsley, Benjamin (2014-12-01)
We document two striking facts about U.S. firm dynamics and interpret their significance for employment dynamics. The first is the dramatic decline in firm entry and the second is the gradual shift of employment toward older firms since 1980. We show that despite these trends, the lifecycle dynamics of firms and their business cycle properties have remained virtually unchanged. Consequently, aging is the delayed effect of accumulating startup deficits. Together, the decline in the employment contribution of startups and the shift of employment toward more mature firms contributed to the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 707

Journal Article
Business Cycles
Haltom, Renee Courtois (2017-01)
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 6-6

Working Paper
Is There News in Inventories?
Gunn, Christopher; Gortz, Christoph; Lubik, Thomas A. (2020-05-08)
This paper identifies total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and documents a new stylized fact: in response to news about future increases in TFP, inventories rise and comove positively with other major macroeconomic aggregates. The authors show that the standard theoretical model used to capture the effects of news shocks cannot replicate this fact when extended to include inventories. To explain the empirical inventory behavior, they develop a framework that relies on the presence of knowledge capital accumulated through a learning-by-doing process. The ...
Working Paper , Paper 20-03

Working Paper
Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
Taylor, Alan M.; Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz (2013)
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policies. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. This paper studies the co-evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries since 1870. We find that in advanced economies financial stability risks have come from private sector credit booms ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2013-37

Working Paper
Computing Equilibria of Stochastic Heterogeneous Agent Models Using Decision Rule Histories
Veracierto, Marcelo (2020-02-18)
This paper introduces a general method for computing equilibria with heterogeneous agents and aggregate shocks that is particularly suitable for economies with private information. Instead of the cross-sectional distribution of agents across individual states, the method uses as a state variable a vector of spline coefficients describing a long history of past individual decision rules. Applying the computational method to a Mirrlees RBC economy with known analytical solution recovers the solution perfectly well. This test provides considerable confidence on the accuracy of the method.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-05

Report
Bank heterogeneity and capital allocation: evidence from \\"fracking\\" shocks
Plosser, Matthew (2014-10-01)
This paper empirically investigates banks? ability to reallocate capital. I use unconventional energy development to identify unsolicited deposit inflows and then I estimate how banks allocate these deposits over the recent business cycle. To condition on credit demand, I compare banks? allocations within affected areas over time and in the cross section. When conditions deteriorate, liquid asset allocations increase and loan allocations decrease. Banks with fewer funding sources and higher capital ratios reduce loan allocations more than nearby peers. My results suggest that during adverse ...
Staff Reports , Paper 693

Newsletter
Minding the Output Gap: What Is Potential GDP and Why Does It Matter?
Wolla, Scott A. (2021-05-03)
Potential output is an estimate of what the economy could produce. Actual output is what the economy does produce. If actual is below potential -- a negative output gap -- there is "slack" in the economy. If actual is above potential -- a positive output gap -- resources are fully employed, or perhaps overutilized. This issue of Page One Economics explains how the output gap is useful for checking the health of the economy. It also points out how errors in the estimation of potential real GDP can reduce the effectiveness of policy.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Report
Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle
Chauvet, Marcelle; Potter, Simon M. (2001)
The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be ...
Staff Reports , Paper 126

Industry Concentration May Help Explain Divergent Business Cycles
Gascon, Charles S.; Haas, Jacob (2020-08-13)
U.S. states with high concentrations of certain industries may help explain why these areas diverge from the national cycle of recessions or expansions.
On the Economy

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