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Newsletter
Competition and trade in the U.S. auto parts sector
Exports of U.S. made auto parts have stalled in recent years, while import levels of auto parts have continued to increase. The authors detail the magnitude and destination of U.S. imports and exports of specific auto parts in order to assess the challenges facing U.S. parts suppliers.
Newsletter
The U.S. auto supplier industry in transition
Evolving relations between carmakers and their parts suppliers have resulted in local, regional, and international shifts in the location of production. An upcoming Chicago Fed conference in Detroit will examine these ongoing structural changes, which are affecting the prospects for the U.S. auto industry?s continued concentration in the Midwest.
Newsletter
Economic Growth to Decelerate in 2019 and Then Ease Further in 2020 as Auto Sales Downshift
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium (AOS), the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to slow this year and then moderate close to its long-term average in 2020. Inflation is expected to decline in 2019 and to edge higher in 2020. The unemployment rate is anticipated to move down to 3.6% by the end of 2019, but then tick back up next year. Light vehicle sales are predicted to decrease from 17.2 million units in 2018 to 16.8 million units in 2019 and then to 16.6 million units in 2020.
Newsletter
The supplier industry in transition - the new geography of auto production
On April 18 and 19, 2006, the Chicago Fed held a conference at its Detroit Branch to examine the ongoing structural changes in the U.S. auto industry. As suppliers play an increasingly central role in auto production, it has become crucial for carmakers to have a strong relationship with their supply base.
Newsletter
Who really made your car?
In the past few decades, the evolving relations between automakers and their parts suppliers have resulted in shifts in the location of production across North America. The authors explore the ongoing structural changes to the automotive industry and explain their local, regional, and international implications.
Newsletter
After the perfect storm: What’s next for the auto industry?
Amid the global recession in 2008?09, the U.S. auto industry experienced its worst downturn in recent memory. While conditions have improved in 2010, questions about which factors will shape the industry?s competitiveness remain. The Chicago Fed hosted a conference on May 10?11, 2010, at its Detroit Branch to explore the industry?s past, present, and future.
Journal Article
The geographic evolution of the U.S. auto industry (pt. 1)
The authors examine changes in the footprint of the auto industry in the United States, starting in 1980 and tracking them through 2003. Their formal analysis of assembly and supplier plant locations traces the reorientation of the auto region from one that extends east?west to one that stretches north?south over this period. To accommodate the large size of the file and the number of illustrations, the article has been divided into two smaller files.
Working Paper
Evolving agglomeration in the U.S. auto supplier industry
Using nonparametric descriptive tools developed by Duranton and Overman (2005), we show that both new and old auto supplier plants are highly concentrated in the eastern United States. Conditional logit models imply that much of this concentration can be explained parametrically by distance from Detroit, proximity to assembly plants, and access to the interstate highway system. New plants are more likely to be located in zip codes that are close to existing supplier plants. However, the degree of clustering observed is still greater than implied by the logit estimates.
Working Paper
Clustering of auto supplier plants in the U.S.: GMM spatial logit for large samples
A linearized version of Pinkse and Slade?s (1998) spatial probit estimator is used to account for the tendency of auto supplier plants to cluster together. By reducing estimation to two steps ? standard probit or logit followed by two-stage least squares ? linearization produces a model that can be estimated using large datasets. Our results imply significant clustering among older plants. Supplier plants are more likely to be in counties that are near assembly plants, that include interstate highways, and that are near other counties with supplier plants. New plants show no additional ...