Search Results

Showing results 1 to 5 of approximately 5.

(refine search)
SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT
Keywords:asymmetry 

Working Paper
The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional recessionary effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s. Compared to the linear model, the cumulative effect of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1114

Working Paper
Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered

Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies more beneficial than widely thought. This paper shows that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble mini “disasters”. By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show empirically that this is true for all advanced economies since 1870. Focusing on the peacetime sample, we develop a tractable local projection framework to estimate consumption growth paths for normal and financial-crisis recessions. Using random coefficient local projections we get an easy and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-11

Working Paper
The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy

We argue that the fiscal multiplier of government purchases is nonlinear in the spending shock, in contrast to what is assumed in most of the literature. In particular, the multiplier of a fiscal consolidation is decreasing in the size of the consolidation. We empirically document this fact using aggregate fiscal consolidation data across 15 OECD countries. We show that a neoclassical life-cycle, incomplete markets model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy can explain this empirical finding. The mechanism hinges on the relationship between fiscal shocks, their form of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-015

Working Paper
The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy

We argue that the fiscal multiplier of government purchases is increasing in the spending shock, in contrast to what is assumed in most of the literature. The fiscal multiplier is largest for large positive government spending shocks and smallest for large contractions in government spending. We empirically document this fact using aggregate U.S. data. We find that a neoclassical, life-cycle, incomplete markets model calibrated to match key features of the US economy can explain this empirical finding. The mechanism hinges on the relationship between fiscal shocks, their form of financing, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-15

Report
Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered

Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies more beneficial than widely thought. This paper shows that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble mini “disasters.” By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show empirically that this is true for all advanced economies since 1870. Focusing on the peacetime sample, we develop a tractable local projection framework to estimate consumption growth paths for normal and financial-crisis recessions. Using random coefficient local projections we get an easy and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 925

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Content Type

Working Paper 4 items

Report 1 items

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

E21 4 items

E32 3 items

E13 2 items

E22 2 items

E62 2 items

E37 1 items

show more (3)

PREVIOUS / NEXT