Search Results
Report
Risk appetite and exchange Rates
Shin, Hyun Song; Etula, Erkko; Adrian, Tobias
(2009)
We present evidence that the growth of U.S.-dollar-denominated banking sector liabilities forecasts appreciations of the U.S. dollar, both in-sample and out-of-sample, against a large set of foreign currencies. We provide a theoretical foundation for a funding liquidity channel in a global banking model where exchange rates fluctuate as a function of banks? balance sheet capacity. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional asset pricing approach and show that the U.S. dollar funding liquidity forecasts exchange rates because of its association with time-varying risk premia. Our ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 361
Report
Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina
(2012)
We present a theory of financial intermediary leverage cycles within a dynamic model of the macroeconomy. Intermediaries face risk-based funding constraints that give rise to procyclical leverage and a procyclical share of intermediated credit. The pricing of risk varies as a function of intermediary leverage, and asset return exposures to intermediary leverage shocks earn a positive risk premium. Relative to an economy with constant leverage, financial intermediaries generate higher consumption growth and lower consumption volatility in normal times, at the cost of endogenous systemic ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 567
Journal Article
The diverse impacts of the great recession
Nakajima, Makoto
(2013-04)
The Great Recession had a large negative impact on the U.S. economy. Asset prices, most notably stock and house prices, declined substantially, resulting in a loss in wealth for many American households. In this article, Makoto Nakajima documents how diverse households were affected in a variety of dimensions during the Great Recession, in particular between 2007 and 2009, using newly available data from the 2007-2009 Survey of Consumer Finances. He discusses why it is important to look at the data on households, rather than focusing on the aggregate data, and he reviews some recent studies ...
Business Review
, Issue Q2
, Pages 17-29
Working Paper
Sustainable monetary policy and inflation expectations
Armenter, Roc
(2010)
The author shows that the short-term nominal interest rate can anchor private-sector expectations into low inflation more precisely, into the best equilibrium reputation can sustain. He introduces nominal asset markets in an infinite horizon version of the Barro-Gordon model. The author then analyzes the subset of sustainable policies compatible with any given asset price system at date t = 0. While there are usually many sustainable inflation paths associated with a given set of asset prices, the best sustainable inflation path is implemented if and only if the short-term nominal bond is ...
Working Papers
, Paper 10-20
Conference Paper
Asset prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy: a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, March 2-3, 2001
anonymous
(2001-03)
Proceedings
, Issue Mar
Journal Article
Looking for evidence of time-inconsistent preferences in asset market data.
Kocherlakota, Narayana R.
(2001-07)
This study argues that strong evidence contradicting the traditional assumption of time-consistent preferences is not available. The study builds and analyzes the implications of a deterministic general equilibrium model and compares them to data from the U.S. asset market. The model implies that (1) because of dynamic arbitrage, the prices of retradable assets cannot reveal whether preferences are time-inconsistent; but (2) the prices of commitment assets, investments which must be held for their lifetime, can. These prices will be higher than the present values of their future payoffs only ...
Quarterly Review
, Volume 25
, Issue Sum
, Pages 13-24
Working Paper
The Role of Learning for Asset Prices and Business Cycles
Winkler, Fabian
(2016-01-20)
I examine the implications of learning-based asset pricing in a model in which firms face credit constraints that depend partly on their market value. Agents learn about stock prices, but have conditionally model-consistent expectations otherwise. The model jointly matches key asset price and business cycle statistics, while the combination of financial frictions and learning produces powerful feedback between asset prices and real activity, adding substantial amplification. The model reproduces many patterns of forecast error predictability in survey data that are inconsistent with rational ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-019
Journal Article
Asset prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy
Rudebusch, Glenn D.
(2001)
This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at the conference "Asset Prices, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy" held at Stanford University on March 2-3, 2001, under the joint sponsorship of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
FRBSF Economic Letter
Working Paper
The impact of monetary policy on asset prices
Sack, Brian P.; Rigobon, Roberto
(2002)
Estimating the response of asset prices to changes in monetary policy is complicated by the endogeneity of policy decisions and the fact that both interest rates and asset prices react to numerous other variables. This paper develops a new estimator that is based on the heteroskedasticity that exists in high frequency data. We show that the response of asset prices to changes in monetary policy can be identified based on the increase in the variance of policy shocks that occurs on days of FOMC meetings and of the Chairman's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress. The identification ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2002-4
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