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Speech
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble: a dangerous brew for monetary policy: a speech at the Cato Institute’s 28th Annual Monetary Conference, Washington, D.C., November 18, 2010
Plosser, Charles I. (2010-11-18)
Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia> Cato Institute?s 28th Annual Monetary Conference, Washington, D.C., November 18, 2010
Speech , Paper 45

Report
No good deals—no bad models
Boyarchenko, Nina; Crosby, John; Cerrato, Mario; Hodges, Stewart (2012)
Faced with the problem of pricing complex contingent claims, investors seek to make their valuations robust to model uncertainty. We construct a notion of a model-uncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases investors? effective risk aversion. Using this utility function, we extend the ?no good deals? methodology of Cochrane and Sa-Requejo (2000) to compute lower and upper good-deal bounds in the presence of model uncertainty. We illustrate the methodology using some numerical examples.
Staff Reports , Paper 589

Working Paper
The cost of business cycles with heterogeneous trading technologies
Chien, YiLi (2014-06-10)
This paper investigates the welfare cost of business cycles in an economy where households have heterogeneous trading technologies. In an economy with aggregate risk, the different portfolio choices induced by heterogeneous trading technologies lead to a larger consumption inequality in equilibrium, while this source of inequality vanishes in an economy without business cycles. Put simply, the heterogeneity in trading technologies amplifies the effect of aggregate output fluctuation on consumption inequality. The welfare cost of business cycles is, therefore, larger in such an economy. In the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-15

Working Paper
Inflation expectations, real rates, and risk premia: evidence from inflation swaps
Ritchken, Peter H.; Pennacchi, George; Haubrich, Joseph G. (2011)
This paper develops a model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates driven by state variables representing the short-term real interest rate, expected inflation, inflation?s central tendency, and four volatility factors that follow GARCH processes. We derive analytical solutions for nominal bond yields, yields on inflation-indexed bonds that have an indexation lag, and the term structure of expected inflation. Unlike prior studies, the model?s parameters are estimated using data on inflation swap rates, as well as nominal yields and survey forecasts of inflation. The ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1107

Working Paper
Bubbles and Leverage: A Simple and Unified Approach
Bogusz, Theodore (2013-11-13)
In this paper, we lay out a simple framework that captures much of what the theoretical literature has to say about the role of credit in systemically important asset booms and busts. In addition, we suggest ways in which to incorporate physical investment in the bubble asset as well as monetary policy.
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2013-21

Report
How do treasury dealers manage their positions?
Fleming, Michael J.; Rosenberg, Joshua V. (2007)
Using data on U.S. Treasury dealer positions from 1990 to 2006, we find evidence of a significant role for dealers in the intertemporal intermediation of new Treasury security supply. Dealers regularly take into inventory a large share of Treasury issuance so that dealer positions increase during auction weeks. These inventory increases are only partially offset in adjacent weeks and are not significantly hedged with futures. Dealers seem to be compensated for the risk associated with these inventory changes by means of price appreciation in the subsequent week.
Staff Reports , Paper 299

Working Paper
Do actions speak louder than words? the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements
Sack, Brian P.; Swanson, Eric T.; Gürkaynak, Refet S. (2004)
We investigate the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices using a high-frequency event-study analysis. We test whether these effects are adequately captured by a single factor--changes in the federal funds rate target-and find that they are not. Instead, we find that two factors are required. These factors have a structural interpretation as a "current federal funds rate target" factor and a "future path of policy" factor, with the latter closely associated with FOMC statements. We measure the effects of these two factors on bond yields and stock prices using a new intraday ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-66

Discussion Paper
When Do Trade Frictions Increase Liquidity?
Afonso, Gara (2011-12-19)
Economists tend to assume that frictions that limit trading in financial markets reduce liquidity and lower investor welfare. In this blog I discuss a recent staff study of mine that challenges that conventional wisdom. I explain how introducing trading frictions—such as circuit breakers—that slow or halt trading in an over-the-counter market experiencing a fire sale might, paradoxically, lead to higher liquidity and investor welfare.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20111219

Working Paper
Show me the money: the monetary policy risk premium
Velikov, Mihail; Ozdagli, Ali K. (2016-12-01)
We study how monetary policy affects the cross-section of expected stock returns. For this purpose, we create a parsimonious monetary policy exposure (MPE) index based on observable firm characteristics that are theoretically linked to how firms react to monetary policy. We find that stocks whose prices react more positively to expansionary monetary policy surprises earn lower average returns. This finding is consistent with the intuition that monetary policy is expansionary in bad economic times when the marginal value of wealth is high, and thus high MPE stocks serve as a hedge against bad ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-27

Conference Paper
The ins and outs of LSAPs.
Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette; Krishnamurthy, Arvind (2013)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

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