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Keywords:agricultural employment 

Working Paper
On the Transition to Modern Growth

We study a simple model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). The economy's output exhibits three stages: (i) stagnation; (ii) transition with increasing growth; (iii) constant growth in the long run. We map the Malthus technology to agriculture and show that the share of employment in agriculture is sufficient to determine both the onset of economic transition and the dynamics of output during the transition. Using 20th century data on agricultural share of employment, we project backward and estimate ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-026

Working Paper
On the Transition to Modern Growth

We study a simple model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). The economy's output exhibits three stages: (i) stagnation, (ii) transition with increasing growth, and (iii) constant growth in the long run. We map the Malthus technology to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment is sufficient to determine the onset of economic transition. Using data on the share, we estimate the onset of transition for the U.S. and Western Europe without using output data. Our model implies that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-026

Working Paper
On the Transition to Modern Growth: Lessons from Recent Agricultural Employment

We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the Malthus technology to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate. Using a few recent observations on the share, we estimate the onset of transition for the U.S. and Western Europe without using output data. We show that output growth is higher after the estimated onset of transition than it is before. Our model implies that output growth during the transition is a first-order autoregressive ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-026

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