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Conference Paper
Phillips curve inflation forecasts - comments
Pagan, Adrian R. (2008)
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Working Paper
Unionization and unemployment rates: a re-examination of Olson's labor cartelization hypothesis
Phillips, Keith R.; Gruben, William C. (1988)
Working Papers , Paper 8807

Journal Article
Jobless recovery redux?
Hobijn, Bart; Kwok, Joyce; Daly, Mary C. (2009)
Although the pace of layoffs appears to be subsiding and the overall economy is showing hints of stabilization, most forecasters expect unemployment to continue to increase in coming months and to recede only gradually as recovery takes hold. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate this projection using data on three labor market indicators: worker flows into and out of unemployment; involuntary part-time employment; and temporary layoffs. We pay particular attention to how these indicators compare with data from previous episodes of recession and recovery. Our analysis generally supports ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment
Kannan, Prakash; Loungani, Prakash; Trehan, Bharat; Chen, Zinzhu (2011)
We provide cross-country evidence on the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors in explaining unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors?real GDP changes (?Okun?s Law?), monetary and fiscal policies, and the uncertainty effects emphasized by Bloom (2009). Structural factors, which we measure using the dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2011-17

Report
Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates
Potter, Simon M.; Chauvet, Marcelle; Juhn, Chinhui (2001)
We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics among unemployment rates disaggregated for seven age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic factors to secular changes in unemployment rates. In addition, it allows examination of the separate contribution of changes due to asymmetric business cycle fluctuations. We find strong evidence in favor of the common factor and of the switching between high and low unemployment rate regimes. We also find ...
Staff Reports , Paper 132

Newsletter
Cross-state evidence on the relationship between unemployment and wage growth
Aaronson, Daniel; Sullivan, Daniel G. (2001-05)
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

Journal Article
Link between unemployment and inflation is uncertain
anonymous (1997-04)
Economics Update , Issue Apr , Pages 5

Journal Article
Bank lending to businesses in a jobless recovery
Marquis, Milton H. (2003)
FRBSF Economic Letter

COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts
Ebsim, Mahdi; Gascon, Charles S. (2020-04-30)
With schools closed due to COVID-19, many full-time workers may drop out of the labor force to take care of their children. Which groups of workers might be most affected?
On the Economy

Working Paper
Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and Macroeconomic Tail Risk
Bernstein, Joshua; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.; Richter, Alexander W. (2020-06-24)
This paper builds a nonlinear business cycle model with endogenous firm entry and exit and equilibrium unemployment. The entry and exit mechanism generates asymmetry and amplifies the transmission of productivity shocks, exposing the economy to significant tail risk. When calibrating the rates of entry and exit to match their shares of job creation and destruction, our quantitative model generates higher-order moments consistent with U.S. data. Firm exit particularly amplifies the severity and persistence of deep recessions such as the COVID-19 crisis. In the absence of entry and exit, the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018

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