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Journal Article
Monetary policy prospects

In this article Evan Koenig looks at measures of the Federal Reserves policy stance and discusses why short-term interest rates will almost certainly have to increase at some point. The article also examines the historical relationship between Federal Reserve policy, inflation and resource slack for insights on future rate changes. Koenig concludes that a wide range of policy outcomes are plausible over the next two years, depending on the strength of the recovery, the economys growth potential, and the sustainable unemployment ratevariables that economists cant, unfortunately, estimate with ...
Economic and Financial Policy Review

Journal Article
The \\"man-cession\\" of 2008-2009: it's big, but it's not great

That men are losing jobs at a much faster rate than women during this recession shouldn't be a surprise. The pattern is typical. And it's not just the men in the hard hats who are out of a job - men in almost all categories of work are being affected disproportionately.
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct , Pages 4-9

Working Paper
Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: a literature review

This paper is a chapter in our forthcoming monograph, Job Creation, Job Destruction, and International Competition (W.E. Upjohn Institute, 2003), and expands on the ideas advanced in Klein, Schuh, and Triest (2003). The chapter provides an extensive review of the literature that studies the connection between international factors, such as real exchange rates and trade agreements, and the domestic labor market. Until recently, the literature has focused on the effects of international factors on net employment at aggregate levels or in selected import-competing industries. In the long run, ...
Working Papers , Paper 02-7

Journal Article
Recent trends in unemployment duration

FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Fully employed?

FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Outsourcing business services and the role of central administrative offices

In this paper, I study whether there is any evidence that the market scale surrounding a central administrative office (CAO), which includes corporate headquarters, influences a firm's cost-effectiveness in procuring business services. By linking plant-level data from the 1992 Annual Survey of Manufactures with CAO information from the Survey of Auxiliary Establishments, I examine manufacturing plants' practice of outsourcing services in relation to the size of the local service market surrounding the plant and that surrounding the plant's CAO. I found statistically significant evidence that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-02-01

Working Paper
Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic

We study the effects and welfare implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fall out from containment policies during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-024

Journal Article
Extended unemployment and UI benefits

During the current labor market downturn, unemployment duration has reached levels well above its previous highs. Analysis of unemployment data suggests that extended unemployment insurance benefits have not been important factors in the increase in the duration of unemployment or in the elevated unemployment rate.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The unemployment gender gap during the 2007 recession

Women fared decidedly better than men during the most recent recession. By August 2009, the unemployment rate for men had hit 11.0 percent, while that for women held at 8.3 percent. This 2.7 percentage point unemployment gender gap--the largest in the postwar era--appears to reflect two factors: first, men were much more heavily represented in the industries that suffered the most during the downturn. Second, there was a much sharper increase in the percentage of men who--prompted, perhaps, by a decline in household liquidity--rejoined the labor force but failed to find a job.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Feb

Journal Article
High unemployment after the recession: mostly cyclical, but adjusting slowly

Unemployment has remained very high since the end of last recession, leading some economists to suggest that the underlying trend of the unemployment rate must have risen, driving unemployment permanently higher. Using a more accurate method of calculating the underlying trend, I find that the long-term rate has not risen and that most of the recent increase in the unemployment rate can be attributed to cyclical causes. But the weak nature of the recovery in real output and the slow rate of worker reallocation are likely to keep unemployment at relatively high levels for the near term.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jan



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