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Conference Paper
A new method to estimate time variation in the NAIRU - comments

Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Conference Paper
A new method to estimate time variation in the NAIRU

NAIRU estimates are obtained from estimates of the Phillips curve, the relationship between the inflation rate on the one hand, and the unemployment rate, measures of inflationary expectations and variables representing supply shocks on the other.
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Conference Paper
Understanding inflation and the implications for monetary policy: a Phillips curve retrospective

It has been fifty years since A.W. Phillips published the famous article on inflation and unemployment that established the Phillips curve as a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. Today, despite ongoing debate about the validity of this approach, many academic economists, policy makers and financial correspondents use Phillips curve concepts in discussing the influence of demand growth on inflation, as well as the relationship between unemployment, wages and prices. But the Phillips curve of today is not that of fifty years ago. And the economy and our understanding of ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Journal Article
Youth unemployment and the transition from school to work: programs in Boston, Frankfurt, and London

New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 3-16

Journal Article
Laid-off workers in a time of structural change

Labor markets have undergone considerable change in recent years. Manufacturing positions are shrinking, especially in blue-collar occupations, and real wages for workers with little education are declining. A rising share of unemployment is accounted for by workers who have been permanently laid off.> This article uses data on workers displaced from Massachusetts companies in the early 1990s who sought government-provided reemployment assistance to examine, first, their duration of unemployment and then, for those who found work, their new wages and other job attributes. The evidence shows ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 3-26

Journal Article
Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, job matching, and labor market dynamics

The Beveridge curve -- the scatter plot of unemployment rates versus vacancy rates -- has recently shifted inward dramatically. While the Beveridge curve is often used to summarize the state of the labor market, it is not a structural economic relationship. Thus, in order to understand the labor market implications of recent shifts in the curve, we must first understand the labor market activities that give rise to the Beveridge curve.> This article examines the Beveridge curve over the past 30 years. The authors discuss some of the issues surrounding the job-matching process and attempt to ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 3-19

Journal Article
Restructuring, the NAIRU, and the Phillips curve

Recent news stories about corporate downsizing have increased concerns that the labor market is being permanently restructured. The press implicitly, and some economists explicitly, have concluded that this "restructuring" in the labor market has increased the rate of unemployment that is consistent with stable inflation. This rate is known as the NAIRU, the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate below which inflation tends to rise, and above which inflation tends to fall. ; This article examines both macroeconomic data and more disaggregated data in search ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 31-44

Journal Article
U.S economic performance: good fortune, bubble, or new era?

What accounts for the extraordinary performance of the U.S. economy in recent years? How is that we have been able to enjoy such strong economic growth and resulting low unemployment rates without an upturn in inflation? The author reviews the primary explanations offered for these unusually favorable circumstances - that the U.S. economy has been the beneficiary of temporary factors that have held down the inflation rate or that the U.S. economy has entered a new era of intensified competition and rising productivity growth in which inflation is less of a threat. She also discusses ...
New England Economic Review , Issue May , Pages 3-20

Journal Article
New data on worker flows during business cycles

The most obvious economic cost of recessions is that workers become involuntarily unemployed. During the average business cycle contraction, total employment declines by about 1.5 percent, the unemployment rate rises by 2.7 percentage points, and it takes almost two years before employment recovers its pre-recession level. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy are concerned with these business cycle deviations of employment from its "full-employment" or "equilibrium" level. The aggregate statistics on employment and unemployment mask economically important information about the ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 49-76

Journal Article
Using bank supervisory data to improve macroeconomic forecasts

Locating the function of bank supervision in the central bank has been a contentious issue, both domestically and internationally. Most discussions of the role of bank supervision in central banking have focused on crisis management and the responsibilities of the central bank as a lender of last resort. However, recent research by the authors has shown that confidential supervisory information garnered through bank examinations potentially can improve the forecasts of key macroeconomic variables and thus the conduct of monetary policy. Forecasting macroeconomic variables is essential to the ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 21-32



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