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How much of the decline in unemployment is due to the exhaustion of unemployment benefits?

Prior studies have examined the impact of extended unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on the rise in the unemployment rate in this recession and early recovery. We use real-time microdata from the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Current Population Survey (CPS) to examine whether there has been a reverse effect recently as benefits have been exhausted. We find that if UI benefits had lasted indefinitely, the unemployment rate would have been cumulatively about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points higher between October 2009 and January 2011, which represents about 10% to 25% of the decline in the actual ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue July

Cyclical versus secular: decomposing the recent decline in U.S. labor force participation

Since the start of the Great Recession, one of the most striking developments in the U.S. labor market has been the pronounced decline in the labor force participation rate. The crucial issue in interpreting the decline in U.S. labor force participation is how much of the decline reflects cyclical factors and how much reflects more persistent developments such as the demographic effects of an aging population. We provide a decomposition of cyclical versus trend movements in the labor force participation rate, informed by the joint dynamics of this variable with the employment-to-population ...
Public Policy Brief

Journal Article
Discouraged and other marginally attached workers: evidence on their role in the labor market

The combination of very low unemployment rates and somewhat limited wage and salary pressures has called into question our ability to measure labor market tightness. One issue is the extent to which labor availability is understated, given the existence of people who are not actively looking for work but express interest in working. This note examines the evidence on discouraged and other marginally attached workers. ; The author concludes that the number of discouraged and other marginally attached workers is extremely low, and their inclusion in an expanded measure of unemployment is ...
New England Economic Review , Issue May , Pages 35-40

Journal Article
If you lost your job …

Intuition and conventional economic models suggest that unemployment benefits should decline over time to induce unemployed workers to seek jobs.
The Region , Volume 20 , Issue Jun , Pages 34-37, 50-53

Cross-state evidence on the relationship between unemployment and wage growth

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

Discussion Paper
Comparisons of alternative identification schemes for the U.S. real GNP- unemployment level correlation: sensitivity analysis

The paper employs three different types of identifying restrictions to calculate the impulse responses for the trivariate series composed of the U.S. unemployment level, real GNP and the money stock. The first two are the zero restrictions, arising from the assumption of the delayed information pattern available in forming a money reaction function. The third assumes a particular simplified structural model. The paper shows that the impulse response patterns are generally insensitive to these alternative specifications. Similar exercises are carried out for the bivariate series composed of ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 21

Working Paper
Job Heterogeneity and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations

This paper disciplines a model with search over match quality using microeconomic evidence on worker mobility patterns and wage dynamics. In addition to capturing these individual data, the model provides an explanation for aggregate labor market patterns. Poor match quality among first jobs implies large fluctuations in unemployment due to a responsive job destruction margin. Endogenous job destruction generates a burst of layoffs at the onset of a recession and, together with on-the-job search, generates a negative comovement between unemployment and vacancies. A significant job ladder, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-04

Explaining Variation in Real Wage Growth Over the Recent Expansion

In August 2019 the unemployment rate was roughly 1 percentage point below the Congressional Budget Office?s (CBO) estimate of its long-run or natural rate, nearly matching the unemployment rate gap that developed during the historically tight labor market of the late 1990s. Nevertheless, real wage growth remains well below its pace of the late 1990s and even that of the milder 2000s expansion.
Chicago Fed Letter

Working Paper
The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market

Using a large panel dataset of US workers, we calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market, where workers are heterogeneous with respect to the parameters governing their employment transitions. We first approximate heterogeneity with a discrete number of latent types, and then calibrate type-specific parameters by matching type-specific moments. Heterogeneity is well approximated by 3 types: αs, βs and γs. Workers of type α find employment quickly because they have large gains from trade, and stick to their jobs because their productivity is similar across jobs. Workers of type ...
Working Papers , Paper 2021-003

Discussion Paper
Sectoral shift theories of unemployment: evidence from panel data

This paper examines the response of sectoral real wages and location probabilities to oil price shocks using U.S. micro-panel data (the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men). The goal is to determine whether the observed response patterns are consistent with so-called sectoral shift theories of unemployment. These theories predict that shocks that change sectoral relative wages should increase unemployment in the short run and lead to labor reallocation in the long run. Consistent with these predictions, the oil price changes of the 1970s resulted in substantial movements in industry ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 28



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Valletta, Robert G. 20 items

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