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Keywords:Uncertainty 

Journal Article
Informational easing: improving credit conditions through the release of information

Economist Matthew Pritsker of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System offers a theoretical view on how regulators can reduce uncertainty in the financial markets by improving the availability of information.
Economic Policy Review , Volume 16 , Issue Aug , Pages 77-87

Journal Article
Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle

Yale University professor John Geanakoplos discusses implications of ?the leverage cycle??a phenomenon in which leverage is excessive prior to a financial crisis and unacceptably low during the crisis?for regulatory policy and reform. Presented as the keynote address at "Central Bank Liquidity Tools and Perspectives on Regulatory Reform" a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, February 19-20, 2009.
Economic Policy Review , Volume 16 , Issue Aug , Pages 101-131

Speech
Basel and the wider financial stability agenda

Remarks at the 2010 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.
Speech , Paper 31

Report
Inference, arbitrage, and asset price volatility

This paper models the impact of arbitrageurs on stock prices when arbitrageurs are uncertain about the drift of the dividend process of a risky asset. Under perfect information, the presence of risk-neutral arbitrageurs unambiguously reduces the volatility of asset returns. When arbitrageurs are uncertain about the drift of the dividend process, they condition their investment strategy on the observation of dividends and trading volume. In such a setting, the presence of arbitrageurs can lead to an increase in the equilibrium volatility of asset returns. The arbitrageurs' inference problem ...
Staff Reports , Paper 187

Report
Have financial markets become more informative?

The finance industry has grown. Financial markets have become more liquid. Information technology has improved. But have prices become more informative? Using stock and bond prices to forecast earnings, we find that the information content of market prices has not increased since 1960. The magnitude of earnings surprises, however, has increased. A baseline model predicts that as the efficiency of information production increases, prices become more disperse and covary more strongly with future earnings. The forecastable component of earnings improves capital allocation and serves as a direct ...
Staff Reports , Paper 578

Report
Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995

This paper examines the ex post flexibility of U.S. labor contracts during the 1970-95 period by investigating whether unanticipated changes in inflation increase the likelihood of a contract being renegotiated prior to its expiration. We find strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Specifically, our results indicate that renegotiations are triggered principally by large and infrequent price shocks of either sign. When combined with evidence that ex ante contract durations are shorter during episodes of increased inflation uncertainty, our results suggest that these contracts are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 521

Discussion Paper
Trade Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms’ Supply Chains

Global trade policy uncertainty has increased significantly, largely because of a changing tariff regime between the United States and China. In this blog post, we argue that trade policy can have a significant effect on firms? organization of supply chains. When the probability of a trade war rises, firms become less likely to form long-term, just-in-time relationships with foreign suppliers, which may lead to higher costs and welfare losses for consumers. Our research shows that even in the absence of actual tariff changes, an increased likelihood of a trade war can significantly distort ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191106

Speech
Challenges facing the U.S. economy and financial system

Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 39

Speech
Testimony on housing finance reform: essential elements of a government guarantee for mortgage-backed securities

Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Washington, D.C.
Speech , Paper 122

Report
Belief updating among college students: evidence from experimental variation in information

We investigate how college students form and update their beliefs about future earnings using a unique ?information? experiment. We provide college students true information about the population distribution of earnings and observe how this information causes respondents to update their beliefs about their own future earnings. We show that college students are substantially misinformed about population earnings and logically revise their self-beliefs in response to the information we provide, with larger revisions when the information is more specific and is good news. We classify the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 516

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