Search Results

Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 100.

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2018-07-24)
This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank?s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We present individual uncertainty measures and introduce individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. The data indicate substantial heterogeneity and persistence in respondents? uncertainty and disagreement, with uncertainty associated with prominent respondent effects and disagreement associated with prominent time effects. We also examine the co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement and find an ...
Working Papers , Paper 1811

Working Paper
Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy
López-Salido, J. David; Hebden, James; Erceg, Christopher J.; Kiley, Michael T.; Tetlow, Robert J. (2018-08-23)
When choosing a strategy for monetary policy, policymakers must grapple with mismeasurement of labor market slack, and of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the Federal Reserve Board?s principal New Keynesian macroeconomic model, we evaluate representative rule-based policy strategies, paying particular attention to how those strategies interact with initial conditions in the U.S. as they are seen today and with the current outlook. To do this, we construct a current relevant baseline forecast, one that is loosely ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-059

Working Paper
Solving stochastic money-in-the-utility-function models
Nesmith, Travis D. (2005)
This paper analyzes the necessary and sufficient conditions for solving money-in-the-utility-function models when contemporaneous asset returns are uncertain. A unique solution to such models is shown to exist under certain measurability conditions. Stochastic Euler equations, whose existence is normally assumed in these models, are then formally derived. The regularity conditions are weak, and economically innocuous. The results apply to the broad range of discrete-time monetary and financial models that are special cases of the model used in this paper. The method is also applicable to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2005-52

Working Paper
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach
Reifschneider, David L.; Tulip, Peter (2017-02-24)
Since November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has regularly published participants? qualitative assessments of the uncertainty attending their individual forecasts of real activity and inflation, expressed relative to that seen on average in the past. The benchmarks used for these historical comparisons are the average root mean squared forecast errors (RMSEs) made by various private and government forecasters over the past twenty years. This paper documents how these benchmarks are constructed and discusses some of their properties. We draw several ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-020

Speech
Challenges facing the U.S. economy and financial system
Checki, Terrence J. (2010)
Remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York City.
Speech , Paper 39

Speech
Monetary policy under uncertainty
Bernanke, Ben S. (2007)
a speech at the 32nd Annual Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (via videoconference)
Speech , Paper 327

Speech
Testimony on housing finance reform: essential elements of a government guarantee for mortgage-backed securities
Tracy, Joseph (2013)
Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Washington, D.C.
Speech , Paper 122

Discussion Paper
Trade Policy Uncertainty May Affect the Organization of Firms’ Supply Chains
Heise, Sebastian; Schaur, Georg; Schott, Peter K.; Pierce, Justin R. (2019-11-06)
Global trade policy uncertainty has increased significantly, largely because of a changing tariff regime between the United States and China. In this blog post, we argue that trade policy can have a significant effect on firms? organization of supply chains. When the probability of a trade war rises, firms become less likely to form long-term, just-in-time relationships with foreign suppliers, which may lead to higher costs and welfare losses for consumers. Our research shows that even in the absence of actual tariff changes, an increased likelihood of a trade war can significantly distort ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20191106

Journal Article
Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle
Geanakoplos, John (2010-08)
Yale University professor John Geanakoplos discusses implications of ?the leverage cycle??a phenomenon in which leverage is excessive prior to a financial crisis and unacceptably low during the crisis?for regulatory policy and reform. Presented as the keynote address at "Central Bank Liquidity Tools and Perspectives on Regulatory Reform" a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, February 19-20, 2009.
Economic Policy Review , Volume 16 , Issue Aug , Pages 101-131

Working Paper
Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility
Caldara, Dario; Scotti, Chiara; Zhong, Molin (2021-08-19)
We study the joint conditional distribution of GDP growth and corporate credit spreads using a stochastic volatility VAR. Our estimates display significant cyclical co-movement in uncertainty (the volatility implied by the conditional distributions), and risk (the probability of tail events) between the two variables. We also find that the interaction between two shocks--a main business cycle shock as in Angeletos et al. (2020) and a main financial shock--is crucial to account for the variation in uncertainty and risk, especially around crises. Our results highlight the importance of using ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1326

show more (1)

show more (46)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords