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Journal Article
Understanding the great trade collapse of 2008–09 and the subsequent trade recovery

This article documents the Great Trade Collapse of 2008?09, as well as the dramatic recovery in trade of 2009?10. The authors consider how three distinct policy actions ? fiscal stimulus, funding for trade finance and a commitment to refrain from increasing trade barriers ? might have affected both the collapse and recovery.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 35 , Issue Q II

Working Paper
Risk-adjusted, ex ante, optimal technical trading rules in equity markets

Allen and Karjalainen (1999) used genetic programming to develop optimal ex ante trading rules for the S&P 500 index. They found no evidence that the returns to these rules were higher than buy-and-hold returns but some evidence that the rules had predictive ability. This comment investigates the risk-adjusted usefulness of such rules and more fully characterizes their predictive content. These results extend Allen and Karjalainen's (1999) conclusion by showing that although the rules' relative performance improves, there is no evidence that the rules significantly outperform the buy-and-hold ...
Working Papers , Paper 1999-015

Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds

Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.
Dallas Fed Economics

Conference Paper
Charting a course under free trade (summary of NAFTA conference)


Working Paper
The openness-inflation puzzle revisited

Dynamic panel estimates show the negative relation between trade openness and inflation found by Romer (1993) but questioned by Terra (1998) became more robust in the 1990s, both among high income OECD and developing countries. Also during the 1990s, openness was associated with less variable inflation and had a stronger disinflation effect in economies with floating exchange rates.
Center for Latin America Working Papers , Paper 0203

Conference Paper
How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?

The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom - that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization - a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. We employ various econometric techniques and a comprehensive new dataset to analyze the link between growth and volatility. Our findings suggest that, while the basic negative ...
Proceedings , Issue Jun

Trade theory and trade facts

This paper quantitatively tests the ?new trade theory? based on product differentiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized countries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to effect trade directions and volumes. In addition, we generalize the model to allow changes in relative prices to have large effects. We test the model by calibrating it to 1990 data and then ?backcasting? to 1961 to see what changes in ...
Staff Report , Paper 284

Journal Article
Does the U.S. trade more widely than it appears?

Given the importance of international trade for economic growth, why in any given year do few U.S. firms export their wares, and why are most U.S. goods not traded with most countries? Roc Armenter presents some intriguing evidence suggesting the U.S. does export most of its products to most countries, just not very often.
Business Review , Issue 1 , Pages 1-8

Journal Article
The 1990s inflation puzzle

Southwest Economy , Issue May , Pages 9-14

Working Paper
Terrorism, Trade and Welfare: Some Paradoxes and a Policy Conundrum

We present a standard trade model and show that terrorism can be trade inducing, starting from autarky. In addition, terrorism can be shown to be welfare augmenting for a group of nations. Finally, we present some qualitative conditions that identify when a nation?s trade volume may rise (or fall) in response to a greater incidence of terrorism. Our trade and welfare results point to potential difficulties in international coordination of counterterrorism policy because of terrorism?s differential impact across nations.
Working Papers , Paper 2016-2



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