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Keywords:Surveys 

Report
More Unequal We Stand? Inequality Dynamics in the United States, 1967–2021

Heathcote et al. (2010) conducted an empirical analysis of several dimensions of inequality in the United States over the years 1967-2006, using publicly-available survey data. This paper expands the analysis, and extends it to 2021. We find that since the early 2000s, the college wage premium has stopped growing, and the race wage gap has stalled. However, the gender wage gap has kept shrinking. Both individual- and household-level income inequality have continued to rise at the top, while the cyclical component of inequality dominates dynamics below the median. Inequality in consumption ...
Staff Report , Paper 648

Working Paper
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in ...
Working Papers , Paper 1416

U.S. Firms Foresee Intensifying Coronavirus Impact

In late March—even before many states had issued shelter-in-place, stay-at-home, or shutdown orders—we noted that firms were bracing for a huge negative impact on sales revenues from developments surrounding the coronavirus. Results from our March Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU)—a national survey of firms of varying sizes and industries—revealed that disruptions stemming from COVID-19 had led to sharp declines in expectations for year-ahead sales growth.
Macroblog

Working Paper
Term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates

Revised September 2016. In this paper, I use a statistical model to combine various surveys to produce a term structure of inflation expectations--inflation expectations at any horizon--and an associated term structure of real interest rates. Inflation expectations extracted from this model track realized inflation quite well, and in terms of forecast accuracy, they are at par with or superior to some popular alternatives. Looking at the period 2008.2015, I conclude that long-run inflation expectations remained anchored, and the policies of the Federal Reserve provided a large level of ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-9

Working Paper
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) are monthly surveys of service sector and retail firms in Texas conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TSSOS and TROS track the Texas private services sector, including general service businesses, retailers and wholesalers. The surveys provide invaluable information on regional economic conditions?information that Dallas Fed economists and the Bank president use in the formulation of monetary policy. This paper describes the survey?s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of ...
Working Papers , Paper 1807

American Firms Foresee a Huge Negative Impact of the Coronavirus

The rapid unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic has created grave concerns for the health and welfare of the U.S. population and the economy. The economic worries are very apparent in financial markets. From the closing bell on February 21 through March 20, U.S. equities fell more than 30 percent, and stock market volatility skyrocketed.
Macroblog

Working Paper
The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation

This study examines the forecasting performance of inflation swaps and survey-based expectations for one-year inflation. Conducting this exercise helps determine if one set of expectations can provide a cleaner signal about future inflation. The study finds that, overall, inflation swaps more frequently provide better forecasts of future inflation. Previous studies that found poor performance of swaps were strongly influenced by liquidity issues during the financial crisis and the pandemic. When these periods are excluded, swaps have superior predictive ability. Our analysis suggests that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-061

Introducing the CFO Survey

For almost 25 years, the Duke CFO Global Business Outlook has provided policymakers, academics, and the public with an understanding of how financial executives view the economy and prospects for their business. Today, three partners—Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta—announce an enhanced iteration of this survey, now called the CFO Survey. Starting with the second-quarter data release on July 8, 2020, the CFO Survey will offer the same crucial information about the economic outlook and, through some ...
Macroblog

Working Paper
The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation

This study examines the forecasting performance of inflation swaps and survey-based expectations for one-year inflation. Conducting this exercise helps determine if one set of expectations can provide a cleaner signal about future inflation. The study finds that, overall, inflation swaps more frequently provide better forecasts of future inflation. Previous studies that found poor performance of swaps were strongly influenced by liquidity issues during the financial crisis and the pandemic. When these periods are excluded, swaps have superior predictive ability. Our analysis suggests that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-061

COVID-19 Caused 3 New Hires for Every 10 Layoffs

Reports about the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to slow its spread make for grim reading. One especially grim statistic is the number of layoffs. Since early March, just over 28 million persons have filed new claims for unemployment insurance benefits (roughly 30 million if you seasonally adjust).
Macroblog

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