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Report
Aggregate supply and demand shocks: a natural rate approach.
There is wide agreement that the dynamics of inflation and unemployment are influenced by supply and demand shocks, such as oil price and monetary policy surprises, and by systematic factors such as overlapping contracts. There is less agreement about the relative importance of those determinants. The natural rate model of this paper uses a structural VAR approach to decompose movements in U.S. postwar unemployment and inflation into three orthogonal components. These components correspond, respectively, to systematic or predictable changes, supply shocks, and demand shocks. Orthogonality ...
Speech
Housing and the economic recovery
Remarks at the New Jersey Bankers Association Economic Forum, Iselin, New Jersey.
Speech
The recovery and monetary policy
Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, New York City.
Working Paper
Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks
Conference Paper
The credit slowdown of 1989-1991: the role of supply and demand
Working Paper
The effect of satellite entry on product quality for cable television
In vertically differentiated markets, the effects of firm entry are contingent upon whether incumbent firms can respond to entry by adjusting product quality in addition to simply lowering prices. Using market-level data, I estimate a structural model of supply and demand for subscription television that takes into account the endogeneity of quality choice. Using counterfactual analysis, I decompose the effect of satellite entry on existing cable into two components: the conventional price response and the effect of endogenous quality adjustments (measured by changes in programming content). ...
Working Paper
Likelihood-preserving normalization in multiple equation models
Causal analysis in multiple equation models often revolves around the evaluation of the effects of an exogenous shift in a structural equation. When taking into account the uncertainty implied by the shape of the likelihood, we argue that how normalization is implemented matters for inferential conclusions around the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of such effects. We develop a general method that eliminates the distortion of finite-sample inferences about these ML estimates after normalization. We show that our likelihood-preserving normalization always maintains coherent economic ...
Working Paper
The multiple unit auction with variable supply
The theory of multiple unit auctions traditionally assumes that the offered quantity is fixed. I argue that this assumption is not appropriate for many applications because the seller may be able and willing to adjust the supply to the bidding. In this paper I address this shortcoming by analyzing a multi-unit auction game between a monopolistic seller who can produce arbitrary quantities at constant unit cost, and oligopolistic bidders. I establish the existence of a subgame-perfect equilibrium for price discriminating and for uniform price auctions. I also show that bidders have an ...
Journal Article
Happy hour economics, or how an increase in demand can produce a decrease in price
The standard supply-and-demand model is typically an economist?s most important analytical tool, but in some situations it does not capture the features of interest. For example, during ?happy hour,? bars near workplaces sell a higher-than-usual quantity of alcoholic beverages at a lower-than-usual price. This practice makes little sense using the standard competitive model, but an alternative model?the model of monopolistic competition?provides the needed analytic framework. ; This article provides a step-by-step construction of a monopolistic competition model in which many firms each ...