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Working Paper
Direct tests of index arbitrage models
Previous tests of stock index arbitrage models have rejected the no-arbitrage constraint imposed by these models. This paper provides a detailed analysis of actual S&P 500 arbitrage trades and directly relates these trades to the predictions of index arbitrage models. An analysis of arbitrage trades suggests that (i) short sale rules are unlikely to restrict arbitrage, (ii) the opportunity cost of arbitrage funds exceeds the Treasury Bill rate, and (iii) the average price discrepancy captured by arbitrage trades is small. Tests of the models provide some support for a version of the arbitrage model that incorporates an early liquidation option. The ability of these models to explain arbitrage trades, however, is relatively low.
AUTHORS: Neal, Robert
DATE: 1995

Working Paper
Pricing bid-ask spreads in common stocks, liquidity premium and the small firm effect
AUTHORS: Shen, Pu
DATE: 1993

Working Paper
Do measures of investor sentiment predict returns?
It has long been market folklore that the best time to buy stocks is when individual investors are bearish. We examine the forecast power of three popular measures of individual investor sentiment: the level of discounts on closed-end funds, the ratio of odd-lot sales to purchases, and net mutual fund redemptions. Using data from 1933 to 1993, we find evidence that fund discounts and net redemptions predict the size premiums, the difference between small and large firm returns, but little evidence that the odd-lot ratio predicts returns.
AUTHORS: Neal, Robert; Wheatley, Simon M.
DATE: 1996

Journal Article
What long-run returns can investors expect from the stock market?
This article analyzes how macroeconomic fundamentals and high price-earnings ratios on stocks will affect long-run returns. The first section reviews the stock market's recent performance and describes how investors and analysts have reacted to this performance. The second section shows how macroeconomic trends imply that long-run returns will remain close to their 10 percent historical average. The third section analyzes the long-run relationship between price-earnings ratios and returns. The section shows that high price-earnings ratios are consistent with lower long-run returns, and argues returns may have declined because the stock market is perceived as less risky.
AUTHORS: Bishop, David G.; Golob, John E.
DATE: 1997

Journal Article
Will the shift to stocks and bonds by households be destabilizing?
In the last decade, households have tended to shift out of bank deposits and money market funds and into stocks and bonds. Some analysts and journalists worry that the shift could be destabilizing to the economy and financial markets. Consumption spending, it is argued, might fluctuate more because households have invested in riskier stocks and bonds. Financial markets also could be more volatile because households might behave as short-sighted novices who will sell assets in panic at the first dip in the market. In addition, the pension and mutual funds through which households invest tend to trade more actively than households. The increasing role of such heavy traders, it is feared, might increase financial market volatility.> Morgan argues that these concerns, though understandable, are exaggerated. Households appear to be saving for retirement and are therefore likely to ride out short-term bumps in the market. Moreover, the market role of institutional investors has been trending up for 30 years without any accompanying trend in volatility.
AUTHORS: Morgan, Donald P.
DATE: 1994

Working Paper
Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules
This paper analyzes the ability of both economic variables and moving-average rules to forecast the monthly U.S. equity premium using out-of-sample tests for 1960?2008. Both approaches provide statistically and economically significant out-of-sample forecasting gains, which are concentrated in U.S. business-cycle recessions. Nevertheless, economic variables and moving-average rules capture different sources of equity premium fluctuations: moving average rules detect the decline in the average equity premium early in recessions, while economic variables more readily pick up the rise in the average equity premium later in recessions. When we simulate data with a habit-formation model characterized by time-varying return volatility and risk aversion relating to business-cycle fluctuations, we find that this model cannot fully account for the out-of-sample forecasting gains in the actual data evidenced by economic variables and moving-average rules.
AUTHORS: Neely, Christopher J.; Rapach, David E.; Tu, Jun; Zhou, Guofu
DATE: 2010

Working Paper
An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns
This paper considers a variety of econometric models for the joint distribution of US stock and bond returns in the presence of regime switching dynamics. While simple two- or three-state models capture the univariate dynamics in bond and stock returns, a more complicated four state model with regimes characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states is required to capture their joint distribution. The transition probability matrix of this model has a very particular form. Exits from the crash state are almost always to the recovery state and occur with close to 50 percent chance suggesting a bounce-back effect from the crash to the recovery state.
AUTHORS: Guidolin, Massimo; Timmerman, Allan
DATE: 2005

Working Paper
Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence
We uncover a positive, empirical risk-return tradeoff in the stock market after controlling for the covariance of stock market returns with the value premium. The underlying premise is that, as conjectured by Fama and French (1996), the value premium is a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities. By ignoring the value premium, early specifications suffer from an omitted variable problem that leads to a downward bias in the estimate of the risk-return tradeoff. The paper also documents a new finding on a significantly positive relation between the value premium and its conditional variance.
AUTHORS: Guo, Hui; Savickas, Robert; Wang, Zijun; Yang, Jian
DATE: 2006

Conference Paper
Impact of globalization on monetary policy
AUTHORS: Rogoff, Kenneth S.
DATE: 2006

Journal Article
What can \\"buy-and-hold\\" stock investors expect?
AUTHORS: Emmons, William R.
DATE: 1999

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